Ethiopian civil conflict

Ethiopian civil conflict
Conflict	Ethiopian civil conflict
Partof	the conflicts in the Horn of Africa
Caption	Map of Ethiopia showing regional states.
Date	3 November 2020 – 3 November 2022 (main phase)
Place	Ethiopia, with spillover into neighbouring regions
Result	Cessation of hostilities following the Pretoria Agreement
Combatant1	Federal government and allies:, Government of Ethiopia, Ethiopian National Defense Force, Eritrean Defence Forces, Amhara Special Forces, Afar Special Forces
Combatant2	TPLF and allies:, Tigray People's Liberation Front, Tigray Defense Forces, Other groups:, Oromo Liberation Army

Ethiopian civil conflict. The conflict was a large-scale armed confrontation primarily between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, erupting in the northern Tigray Region. It expanded to involve other regional forces and drew in international actors, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis. The war was formally ended by a peace agreement mediated by the African Union.

Background and causes

Tensions stemmed from long-standing political rivalries following the ascent of Abiy Ahmed to the prime ministership in 2018. The TPLF, which had dominated the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition for decades, retreated to Tigray and defied the federal government. A critical flashpoint was the TPLF's decision to hold regional elections in September 2020, which Addis Ababa deemed illegal. The federal government's postponement of national elections and the TPLF's attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Force in Mekelle were immediate triggers for the outbreak of large-scale violence.

Timeline of major events

Hostilities began on 3 November 2020, with a federal offensive into Tigray. The Eritrean Defence Forces crossed the border to support the ENDF. By late November, federal forces captured Mekelle. In 2021, the Tigray Defense Forces launched a major counter-offensive, retaking most of Tigray by June and advancing into the Amhara Region and Afar Region. The conflict saw pivotal battles in places like Dessie and Kemise. In late 2021, the TDF advance towards Addis Ababa prompted a state of emergency. A government counter-push in early 2022, aided by drone strikes, shifted momentum. Fighting largely ceased ahead of peace talks mediated by the African Union in Pretoria.

Belligerents and foreign involvement

The primary belligerents were the Government of Ethiopia, supported by the ENDF, the Eritrean Defence Forces, and regional militias like the Amhara Special Forces, against the Tigray People's Liberation Front and its military wing, the Tigray Defense Forces. The Oromo Liberation Army fought alongside the TDF in later stages. Foreign involvement was significant, with Eritrea being a direct combatant. Sudan was involved due to border disputes in Al-Fashaga. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran provided drones to the federal government, while the TPLF reportedly received some support from elements within Sudan. The United Nations, the United States, and the European Union were key diplomatic actors.

Humanitarian impact and human rights

The conflict caused a catastrophic humanitarian disaster. The United Nations estimated hundreds of thousands faced famine-like conditions, with a blockade of Tigray severely restricting aid. Widespread atrocities were reported by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the UN Human Rights Council's International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia. These included the Mai Kadra massacre, sexual violence on a massive scale, and attacks on refugee camps in Shire. The World Health Organization warned of the collapse of the health system in Tigray. Displacement reached into the millions, with many fleeing to Sudan and other regions.

Peace process and resolution efforts

Early mediation attempts by the African Union under envoy Olusegun Obasanjo made little progress. The United States appointed Jeffrey Feltman as a special envoy. A critical turning point was the declaration of a unilateral humanitarian truce by the federal government in March 2022. This paved the way for formal talks in Pretoria under the auspices of the African Union in October 2022. The warring parties signed the Pretoria Agreement on 3 November 2022, followed by a detailed implementation agreement in Nairobi. Key provisions included disarmament of the Tigray Defense Forces, restoration of federal authority, and unhindered humanitarian access.

Aftermath and political consequences

Following the Pretoria Agreement, a fragile peace took hold in Tigray, though tensions persisted in Amhara Region where the federal government clashed with the Fano militia. The Tigray People's Liberation Front agreed to disarm and transition into a political party. The agreement stipulated the integration of Tigray Defense Forces fighters into the ENDF or a rehabilitation process. The war left deep societal scars and a devastated economy, with reconstruction needs estimated in the billions. The conflict altered the balance of power within Ethiopia, weakening the federal system and centralizing authority under Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party.

Category:Wars involving Ethiopia Category:2020s conflicts Category:African Union