Monitoring the Future

Monitoring the Future
Name	Monitoring the Future
Formation	1975
Founder	Lloyd Johnston, Jerald Bachman, Patrick O'Malley
Location	University of Michigan
Key people	Lloyd Johnston, Richard Miech

Monitoring the Future. The National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) has funded the Monitoring the Future project since its inception in 1975, with Lloyd Johnston, Jerald Bachman, and Patrick O'Malley as its principal investigators. This long-term study is conducted by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research and surveys approximately 50,000 United States students in grades 8, 10, and 12 each year, including students from California, New York (state), and Texas. The project also receives support from the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) and the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), and has been referenced by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Introduction

The Monitoring the Future project is an ongoing study that examines the behaviors, attitudes, and values of American adolescents and young adults, with a primary focus on substance use and abuse, including tobacco, alcohol, marijuana, and prescription drugs. The study has been cited by the World Health Organization (WHO) and has collaborated with the National Institutes of Health (NIH), including the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). Researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the University of Pennsylvania have also contributed to the project. The project's findings have been presented at conferences such as the American Psychological Association (APA) and the American Sociological Association (ASA) annual meetings.

Methodology

The Monitoring the Future project uses a multistage random sampling methodology to select a representative sample of students from public and private schools across the United States, including schools in urban, rural, and suburban areas, such as New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. The survey is typically administered in the spring of each year, and students are asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire that includes questions about their use of various substances, as well as their attitudes and beliefs about substance use and other topics, such as mental health and academic achievement. The project has also collaborated with researchers from the Harvard School of Public Health and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Data from the project have been used by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).

Key Findings

The Monitoring the Future project has produced a wide range of findings on substance use and other topics, including trends in the use of tobacco, alcohol, and illicit drugs among American adolescents and young adults, such as cocaine, heroin, and LSD. The project has also examined the relationships between substance use and other factors, such as mental health, academic achievement, and delinquency, and has collaborated with researchers from the Yale University and the Columbia University. Findings from the project have been cited by the American Medical Association (AMA) and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). The project has also informed substance use prevention and intervention efforts, such as the Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) program and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration's (SAMHSA) National Prevention Week.

Trends and Patterns

The Monitoring the Future project has identified a number of trends and patterns in substance use among American adolescents and young adults, including declines in the use of tobacco and alcohol in recent years, as well as increases in the use of marijuana and e-cigarettes, such as Juul. The project has also examined the relationships between substance use and other factors, such as socioeconomic status, race/ethnicity, and geographic location, including urban and rural areas, such as Appalachia and the Southwest United States. Researchers from the University of Wisconsin–Madison and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have contributed to the analysis of these trends. Findings from the project have been presented at conferences such as the American Public Health Association (APHA) and the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco (SRNT) annual meetings.

Implications and Impact

The Monitoring the Future project has had a significant impact on our understanding of substance use and other topics among American adolescents and young adults, and has informed a wide range of prevention and intervention efforts, including the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). The project's findings have also been used to develop evidence-based prevention programs, such as the LifeSkills Training program and the Olweus Bullying Prevention Program, and have collaborated with researchers from the University of Southern California (USC) and the University of Washington. The project has also been recognized by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Institute of Medicine (IOM), and has received funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

History and Development

The Monitoring the Future project was established in 1975 by Lloyd Johnston, Jerald Bachman, and Patrick O'Malley, with funding from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), and has since become one of the largest and most comprehensive studies of its kind, with a database of over 40 years of substance use trends and other data, including data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). The project has undergone several changes and expansions over the years, including the addition of new survey questions and the development of new methodologies, such as latent class analysis and structural equation modeling, and has collaborated with researchers from the Stanford University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Today, the project is recognized as a leading source of data and information on substance use and other topics among American adolescents and young adults, and has informed substance use prevention and intervention efforts at the local, state, and national levels, including the White House and the United States Congress.

Category:Public health