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TAR (Third Assessment Report)

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TAR (Third Assessment Report)
NameThird Assessment Report
AbbreviationTAR
AuthorIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
CountryMultinational
LanguageEnglish
SubjectClimate change
PublisherCambridge University Press
Date2001

TAR (Third Assessment Report) was the 2001 comprehensive synthesis of climate science produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change involving hundreds of authors and reviewers from institutions such as National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Met Office, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement. The report provided coordinated assessments linking observations from NOAA, projections influenced by model developments at Hadley Centre, and policy-relevant summaries used by bodies including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the European Environment Agency. It informed negotiations at venues such as the Kyoto Protocol meetings and seeded research cited by scholars at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of East Anglia, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Background and Preparation

Preparation drew on contributions from lead authors and coordinating lead authors associated with institutions like Columbia University, Princeton University, Australian National University, and CSIRO. The assessment integrated published literature indexed in databases curated by World Meteorological Organization and reviewed through cycles involving reviewers from Royal Society, National Academy of Sciences, IPCC Working Group I, IPCC Working Group II, and IPCC Working Group III. Drafts were revised during plenary sessions attended by delegates from United States, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa and were subject to review comments from representatives of European Commission, G8, and regional organizations such as the African Union.

Key Findings and Conclusions

The report concluded with statements about observed warming supported by proxy records from Paleoclimatology archives including Greenland ice core, Antarctic ice core, and tree-ring datasets compiled by researchers at Berkeley Earth, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program. It found substantial evidence linking recent temperature increases to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases measured by instruments at Mauna Loa Observatory, isotopic analyses from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and emissions inventories from International Energy Agency. TAR projected future climate scenarios developed using model frameworks from HadCM3, ECHAM, and GFDL with forcings related to emissions pathways involving sectors tracked by International Energy Agency, United Nations Environment Programme, and World Business Council for Sustainable Development. It emphasized likely impacts on systems studied by experts at Food and Agriculture Organization, World Health Organization, International Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, and national agencies such as Environment Canada.

Methodology and Assessment Process

Assessment methods combined detection and attribution techniques advanced by groups at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and MIT. Model intercomparison exercises referenced protocols from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and utilized palaeoclimate simulations comparable to reconstructions by Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, and Malcolm K. Hughes. Uncertainty characterization drew upon guidance from statisticians affiliated with University of Oxford, Imperial College London, and Columbia University. The review and approval process involved governments and expert reviewers from entities such as World Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations Development Programme, and regional bodies like ASEAN.

Scientific and Policy Impact

TAR influenced policy deliberations at Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, informed compliance discussions related to the Kyoto Protocol and was cited in national assessments by agencies such as United States Global Change Research Program and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Its synthesis shaped subsequent reports by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report processes at institutions like University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit and guided research funding priorities at organizations including the National Science Foundation, European Research Council, and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. The report was referenced in legal and economic analyses produced by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and think tanks such as Resources for the Future.

Criticisms and Controversies

Controversies involved scrutiny by academics including those associated with debates at University of Alabama in Huntsville and commentary published in outlets linked to George C. Marshall Institute and Competitive Enterprise Institute. Critiques addressed uncertainties in model projections from centers like GFDL and disputes over proxy reconstructions involving scholars at Penn State University and University of Arizona. The report elicited scrutiny during political debates in parliaments such as the United States Senate, European Parliament, and Australian Parliament and was the subject of media coverage by organizations including BBC, The New York Times, and The Guardian.

Legacy and Subsequent Developments

TAR's synthesis influenced the design of follow-up assessments and protocols leading to the Fourth Assessment Report and the later Fifth Assessment Report and Sixth Assessment Report, and contributed to the development of scenario frameworks such as the Representative Concentration Pathways and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used by research groups at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Its datasets and conclusions informed global initiatives by the Green Climate Fund, Inter-American Development Bank, and national adaptation programs in Bangladesh, Netherlands, and Maldives. The report remains a milestone referenced in academic literature produced by scholars at Harvard University, Yale University, and Stanford University and in policy dialogues at summits such as the G20.

Category:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports