Storm Prediction Center
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| Storm Prediction Center | |
|---|---|
| Name | Storm Prediction Center |
| Native name | SPC |
| Formed | 1952 (as Severe Local Storms Unit) |
| Preceding1 | Severe Local Storms Unit |
| Jurisdiction | United States National Weather Service |
| Headquarters | Norman, Oklahoma |
| Employees | ~60 (operational staff) |
| Chief1 name | (Director) |
| Parent agency | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service |
Storm Prediction Center
The Storm Prediction Center is a United States federal center specializing in forecasting and monitoring severe convective weather, including tornadoes, severe thunderstorm, and hail outbreaks. As a component of the National Weather Service within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the center issues national-scale outlooks, watches, and experimental products to partners such as Federal Aviation Administration, Department of Defense, and emergency managers across the United States. The center collaborates with academic institutions like the University of Oklahoma, research organizations such as the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and international agencies including Environment Canada and the Meteorological Service of Canada.
History
The center traces its roots to the Severe Local Storms Unit created in the early 1950s, evolving through organizational changes tied to the National Weather Service modernization and the formation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Key milestones include relocation to Norman, Oklahoma near the University of Oklahoma campus and integration with facilities built for the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Influential figures in its development include operational scientists and directors who bridged research from projects like the Experimental Stormscale Ensemble and field programs such as Project VORTEX and VORTEX2. The center's methods advanced alongside computational improvements from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and numerical guidance from models developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Mission and Responsibilities
The center's mission centers on providing timely, high-confidence convective forecasts to protect life and property across the United States. It issues products that inform partners including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Transportation, Aviation Weather Center, and state-level emergency operations like those of Oklahoma Emergency Management and Texas Division of Emergency Management. Responsibilities extend to coordination with regional offices of the National Weather Service, contributing to post-event damage surveys often coordinated with the National Weather Service Damage Assessment teams and academic collaborators at institutions like Texas Tech University.
Forecasting Operations
Operational forecasting integrates observations from platforms such as the NEXRAD radar network, satellite data from GOES, surface networks maintained by NOAA, and upper-air soundings from the National Weather Service Radiosonde network. Forecasters use numerical guidance from models like the Global Forecast System, UK Met Office Unified Model, and ensemble products from the North American Ensemble Forecast System. Collaboration occurs with neighboring forecast centers including the Weather Prediction Center and the Ocean Prediction Center to coordinate large-scale patterns influencing convection, such as outbreaks tied to remnant cyclones from systems like Hurricane Katrina or synoptic troughs documented in Pacific-North American teleconnection studies.
Products and Services
Primary products include Convective Outlooks, Day 1–8 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, and Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches established in coordination with local National Weather Service offices. The center provides experimental products, storm reports, mesoscale discussions, and graphical guidance used by broadcast media outlets like The Weather Channel and private providers such as AccuWeather. Information supports aviation stakeholders including Air Traffic Control centers and carriers regulated by the Federal Aviation Administration, and is integrated into decision support services for large venues like Super Bowl events or Presidential Inauguration security planning.
Research and Development
Research partnerships with entities including the National Severe Storms Laboratory, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, Colorado State University, and the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms drive improvements in tornado forecasting, probabilistic convective guidance, and verification techniques. The center participates in field campaigns like VORTEX2 and experiments leveraging mobile radars such as Doppler on Wheels to refine understanding of supercell dynamics and tornadogenesis. Advances in machine learning and data assimilation from collaborators like Massachusetts Institute of Technology contribute to prototype tools and post-event verification frameworks with agencies including the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Organization and Facilities
The center operates a 24/7 watch floor staffed by duty forecasters, mesoscale analysts, and a director, situated in a facility co-located with the National Severe Storms Laboratory and adjacent to the University of Oklahoma meteorology programs. Organizational links span the National Centers for Environmental Prediction umbrella, coordinating with centers such as the Climate Prediction Center and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)'s parent offices. Training pipelines draw on internships and cooperative programs with universities like Oklahoma State University and University of Missouri and professional exchanges with international services such as the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia).
Notable Events and Impact
The center has played a central role during major events including multi-day tornado outbreaks like those in April 2011 tornado outbreak sequence, significant convective flash flooding events such as the 2013 Colorado floods, and high-profile severe weather during large public events documented by media outlets and academic case studies. Its forecasts have influenced emergency responses coordinated with Federal Emergency Management Agency operations and state emergency agencies, shaping warning practices and contributing to research publications in journals like Monthly Weather Review and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Continuous verification and improvements have reduced fatalities in many severe weather events, informing policy and operational changes at entities such as the National Weather Service and regional emergency management organizations.