South Asian Climate Outlook Forum

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum
Name	South Asian Climate Outlook Forum
Abbreviation	SACOF
Formation	2010s
Type	Intergovernmental collaboration
Purpose	Seasonal climate outlooks and capacity building
Region served	South Asia
Parent organization	World Meteorological Organization

Contents

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum coordinates seasonal climate outlooks for the South Asia region, linking national meteorological services, regional centres, and international agencies. It convenes experts from national meteorological services such as India Meteorological Department, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, and Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology alongside regional bodies like the World Meteorological Organization and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to produce consensus forecasts and capacity building programmes. The forum integrates scientific inputs from research centres including the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation climate initiatives.

Overview

The forum functions as a regional node linking World Meteorological Organization programmes, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, United Nations Development Programme resilience efforts, and national agencies such as India Meteorological Department, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology, and Maldives Meteorological Service. It combines dynamical and statistical guidance from modelling centres like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, UK Met Office, and the Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research. Stakeholders include disaster management authorities such as National Disaster Management Authority (India), Bangladesh Disaster Management Directorate, Pakistan National Disaster Management Authority, as well as research institutes including the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, and universities such as University of Colombo, Jawaharlal Nehru University, University of Dhaka, and Tribhuvan University.

The initiative emerged from regional dialogues among World Meteorological Organization centres, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change dialogues, and national services following extreme events like the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and the 2010 Pakistan floods. Early workshops involved contributors from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (India), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, and partners such as Australian Bureau of Meteorology, US Agency for International Development, and Asian Development Bank. Subsequent annual and biennial meetings expanded links with research programmes at Columbia University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China), and national laboratories like National Institute of Oceanography (India).

Primary aims include producing consensus seasonal outlooks for precipitation and temperature across regions covered by India Meteorological Department, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology, Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, and Maldives Meteorological Service. It supports adaptation agendas in programmes led by World Bank, Asian Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and national ministries such as Ministry of Earth Sciences (India), Ministry of Climate Change (Pakistan), and Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (Bangladesh). The scope extends to hydrological forecasting with partners like International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and agricultural advisory services linked to Food and Agriculture Organization programmes.

Forecasts combine dynamical multi-model ensembles from centres including ECMWF, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and national systems such as NCMRWF with statistical guidance using indices like El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Products include consensus seasonal outlook bulletins for rainfall and temperature, probabilistic tercile forecasts, sectoral briefs for agriculture and water resources, and advisories produced with inputs from International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Food and Agriculture Organization. Verification uses observed datasets such as India Meteorological Department rain gauge networks, Global Precipitation Climatology Project, and reanalyses like ERA5.

Capacity building components involve workshops, training courses, and fellowship programmes hosted by partners including World Meteorological Organization, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, and universities such as University of Dhaka and Jawaharlal Nehru University. Training covers seasonal forecasting methods, verification techniques from International Research Institute for Climate and Society, and user engagement practices linked to agencies like National Disaster Management Authority (India) and Bangladesh Disaster Management Directorate.

Applications span agriculture advisories for institutions like Food and Agriculture Organization, water management with International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, disaster risk reduction with United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and public health preparedness aligned with World Health Organization guidance. Impact assessments have engaged academic partners including Columbia University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; critiques note challenges in forecast skill during El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole phases, spatial heterogeneity across complex topography like the Himalayas, data gaps in consortia involving Bhutan and Maldives Meteorological Service, and needs for greater integration with national early warning systems managed by entities such as National Disaster Management Authority (India) and Pakistan National Disaster Management Authority.

Category:Climate