NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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| NOAA Climate Prediction Center | |
|---|---|
| Name | Climate Prediction Center |
| Agency | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| Parent agency | National Weather Service |
| Formed | 1995 (predecessors trace to 1930s) |
| Headquarters | College Park, Maryland |
NOAA Climate Prediction Center The Climate Prediction Center provides operational climate forecasts, outlooks, and analyses linking seasonal variability to societal impacts for the United States and global partners. It supports decision-making for agriculture, water resources, disaster management, and energy by coordinating predictive products across scientific institutions and federal programs.
Overview and Mission
The Center issues operational outlooks, monitoring, and diagnostics that connect atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface conditions to near-term climate variability, supporting stakeholders such as United States Department of Agriculture, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Defense, United States Geological Survey, and World Meteorological Organization. It translates research from laboratories like NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, and National Center for Atmospheric Research into applications used by International Research Institute for Climate and Society, United Nations, and regional forecast centers. The mission aligns with strategic plans of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program to advance actionable climate information for sectors including Bureau of Reclamation, Environmental Protection Agency, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and international partners such as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
History and Organizational Development
The Center evolved from earlier units within United States Weather Bureau and Telecommunication Working Group activities, inheriting roles from programs like the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas and collaborations with International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean. Organizational changes paralleled restructurings at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service, and milestones include integration with initiatives from President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and coordination with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Leadership and staffing have included liaisons with Office of Science and Technology Policy and partnerships with academic institutions such as University of Miami, Columbia University, University of Colorado Boulder, and Rutgers University.
Forecasting Products and Services
The Center produces operational products including the U.S. and global 3-month temperature and precipitation outlooks, drought outlooks, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostics, and weekly climate maps used by National Weather Service forecast offices, State Climate Offices, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and international meteorological services such as Met Office and Japan Meteorological Agency. Products draw on model guidance from Global Forecast System, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ensemble systems developed in collaboration with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Canadian Meteorological Centre. Specialized briefings support State Department delegations, Department of Energy planning, and humanitarian organizations including United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and American Red Cross.
Research, Methodologies, and Modeling
Research integrates statistical approaches, dynamical modeling, and machine learning informed by datasets from Climate Prediction Center gridded analyses, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, and spaceborne observatories such as Landsat, MODIS, and Jason (satellite). Methodologies include seasonal prediction using coupled ocean–atmosphere models from NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, attribution studies aligned with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidance, and downscaling protocols used by universities like University of Washington and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Center contributes to intercomparison efforts such as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and collaborates on verification metrics developed with World Meteorological Organization and research programs at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Operational Partnerships and Coordination
Operational delivery relies on coordination with federal partners including National Weather Service, National Ocean Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and United States Agency for International Development, and with international entities such as World Meteorological Organization, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, and regional climate centers. Cooperative agreements with academic consortia—Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, and Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies—support modeling, verification, and training. The Center also engages private sector collaborators like NOAA's Cooperative Institutes and data providers such as National Aeronautics and Space Administration satellite programs and commercial weather services.
Impact, Applications, and Public Communication
Center products underpin decision-making in sectors including United States Department of Agriculture crop forecasting, Bureau of Reclamation water management, Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster preparedness, and Department of Energy grid resilience, and inform assessments by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change authors and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiators. Public communication channels include coordinated briefings with National Weather Service, outreach to State Climate Offices, and engagement with media outlets and stakeholder networks like American Meteorological Society and National Integrated Drought Information System to translate probabilistic forecasts for users ranging from farmers to humanitarian planners. The Center’s role in seasonal prediction and extreme-event outlooks continues to shape adaptation efforts supported by agencies such as Environmental Protection Agency and international partners including World Bank.