National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center
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| National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center | |
|---|---|
| Name | Storm Prediction Center |
| Agency | National Weather Service |
| Formed | 1952 |
| Jurisdiction | United States |
| Headquarters | Norman, Oklahoma |
| Parent agency | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center The Storm Prediction Center serves as a national center for convective storm forecasting, issuing outlooks, watches, and mesoscale analyses for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds across the United States and adjoining waters, coordinating with regional National Weather Service offices, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and emergency managers. Its mission integrates operational forecasting, mesoscale analysis, and applied research to reduce loss of life and property from severe weather, interacting with institutions such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Severe Storms Laboratory, NOAA/NWS partners, and academic centers like the University of Oklahoma and University of Oklahoma College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences.
Mission and Responsibilities
The center's primary responsibility is to produce convective outlooks, watch products, and mesoscale discussions that inform National Weather Service field offices, Emergency Alert System, the American Red Cross, and private sector partners such as The Weather Channel and airline operations at hubs like Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and Chicago O'Hare International Airport. It provides national-scale situational awareness for events including tornado outbreaks, derecho events, and high-end hail storms, coordinating with regional centers such as the Weather Prediction Center and Aviation Weather Center and with federal stakeholders including the Department of Defense and Department of Transportation. The center also contributes to training programs for forecasters from the National Weather Service Training Center, Federal Aviation Administration, and university meteorology departments including North Carolina State University.
History and Development
The center's lineage traces to the mid-20th century severe weather programs established by the United States Weather Bureau and later transitions under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reorganization, with notable milestones involving collaborations with the National Severe Storms Laboratory and research efforts tied to projects like Project NIMROD and VORTEX field campaigns. Relocations and consolidations involved facilities tied to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, and leadership over time has included directors who coordinated with the American Meteorological Society and contributors from institutions such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Colorado State University, and Pennsylvania State University. Technological transitions from manual charting to numerical guidance incorporated model output from the Global Forecast System, North American Mesoscale Model, and ensemble systems stemming from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts collaborations.
Forecasting Operations and Products
Operational products include categorical and probabilistic convective outlooks, tornado watches, severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, and experimental high-resolution guidance disseminated to partners including the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, media outlets like AccuWeather, and transportation agencies such as Amtrak and Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Forecasters synthesize numerical guidance from the GFS, NAM, HRRR, and ensemble platforms, observational networks like the NEXRAD radar array, GOES satellite imagery, and surface analysis centers such as the Surface Weather Observing Program. Products are integrated with warning operations at local National Weather Service Forecast Office locations and are routinely cited by federal and state emergency management agencies during high-impact events such as Hurricane Katrina spillover convective outbreaks and the 2011 Super Outbreak.
Research, Tools, and Technology
The center engages in applied research partnerships with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and international collaborators including Environment Canada and the Met Office. Key tools include the SPC mesoanalysis suite, probabilistic hazard mapping, the Warn-on-Forecast concept derived from research at NOAA, and assimilation of data from platforms such as Doppler on Wheels projects, radiosonde networks, and airborne reconnaissance. Integration of machine learning and ensemble post-processing draws on advances from laboratories at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Carnegie Mellon University, and Stanford University, while outreach and verification efforts coordinate with the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment datasets and the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook Verification programs.
Organizational Structure and Staffing
The center is staffed by a cadre of lead forecasters, mesoscale meteorologists, and support personnel drawn from the National Weather Service and affiliated research institutions, reporting through lines to the NOAA National Weather Service Central Region management and interacting with regional NWS Weather Forecast Office directors. Staffing schedules accommodate 24/7 operations with shift rotations, training pipelines that include exchanges with the National Severe Storms Laboratory and university graduate programs at Texas A&M University and Oklahoma State University, and professional development through the American Meteorological Society continuing education offerings. Collaborative governance includes liaison roles to the Federal Emergency Management Agency and coordination with state meteorological services such as the Oklahoma Mesonet.
Notable Events and Impacts
The center has played a central role in anticipating and managing national-scale severe events, including the 2011 Super Outbreak, high-profile twister events affecting metropolitan areas like Moore, Oklahoma and Joplin, Missouri, and widespread summer derecho events impacting infrastructure in regions such as the Mid-Atlantic United States and Great Plains. Its products have informed emergency declarations by executive offices and response activities coordinated with agencies including the Federal Emergency Management Agency and American Red Cross, and have contributed to post-event studies published in journals associated with the American Meteorological Society and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.