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| NBC News/Wall Street Journal | |
|---|---|
| Name | NBC News/Wall Street Journal |
| Type | News poll collaboration |
| Owner | NBC News; The Wall Street Journal |
| Founded | 1993 |
| Headquarters | New York City |
| Country | United States |
NBC News/Wall Street Journal NBC News/Wall Street Journal is a recurring joint polling and reporting project produced by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, combining broadcast journalism resources with print journalism research to produce national surveys, election polls, and policy analysis. The collaboration has released high-profile pre-election and tracking polls used by commentators, campaigns, and institutions such as the United States Senate, United States House of Representatives, and state election authorities. Its reports have been cited by outlets including CNN, The New York Times, Fox News, The Washington Post, and academic centers like the Pew Research Center and Harvard Kennedy School.
The partnership merges the news gathering apparatus of NBC News and the reporting and editorial operations of The Wall Street Journal to field public opinion surveys addressing presidential contests, midterm elections, approval ratings, and issue attitudes tied to events such as the Iraq War, the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Supreme Court confirmations like Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett. Poll releases typically report voter preference, favorability for figures like Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, or Hillary Clinton, and policy opinions on topics tied to institutions such as the Federal Reserve and legislation like the Affordable Care Act. Results are used by political operatives in campaigns managed by strategists associated with organizations like the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee.
The joint polling project began in the early 1990s as part of broader media collaborations seen between outlets like ABC News and The Washington Post and evolved alongside academic survey work at institutions such as Stanford University, Yale University, and Princeton University. Over time the project integrated methodological shifts championed by scholars at University of Michigan, Columbia University, and Syracuse University, adopting techniques influenced by researchers associated with the American Association for Public Opinion Research and the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. Technological changes paralleled advances by firms like Gallup and Pew Research Center, prompting the joint team to modify sampling frames in response to telephony shifts tied to companies such as AT&T and developments in online panels used by firms like YouGov.
The project has used mixed-mode methodologies combining live telephone sampling with registered-voter screens and, in some cycles, online components provided by vendors akin to SSRS or Langer Research Associates, raising debates among methodologists at places like University of Chicago and London School of Economics about weighting schemes and nonresponse bias. Controversies have arisen concerning likely-voter models reminiscent of disputes during the 2000 United States presidential election and the 2016 United States presidential election, prompting critiques from statisticians linked to Columbia University and Princeton University over turnout assumptions and demographic weighting, including race and education adjustments first highlighted by analysts at FiveThirtyEight and the Brookings Institution. Legal scholars at Georgetown University and media researchers at Northwestern University have examined transparency and disclosure practices after high-profile misses, while professional bodies such as the American Statistical Association have articulated standards cited in debates.
The joint releases have produced notable findings on presidential approval, midterm electorate sentiments, and issue salience during crises such as responses to Hurricane Katrina, reactions to Supreme Court decisions like Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, and economic perceptions during episodes involving the Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Board. These findings have shaped narratives cited by commentators at MSNBC, Bloomberg L.P., and NPR, informed strategy memos within campaign organizations tied to leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, and provided evidence for academic studies at centers including Brookings Institution and RAND Corporation examining voter polarization, media effects, and electoral realignment.
Scholars, journalists, and political operatives have both relied on and criticized the collaboration’s outputs. Supporters from outlets like The Atlantic and researchers at Harvard Kennedy School have praised its editorial reach and production values, while critics at FiveThirtyEight, Vox, and academic commentators from Rutgers University and University of California, Berkeley have questioned sample representativeness and question-wording effects seen in comparisons with polls from CBS News/YouGov, Quinnipiac University, and Monmouth University. Debates often reference methodological critiques developed in literature from MIT and Dartmouth College about survey error, margin of sampling error versus total survey error, and mode effects.
Beyond the core partnership, the project has engaged in cross-publication and broadcast collaborations mirroring arrangements between The Washington Post and ABC News or The New York Times and Siena College, coordinating with research vendors and academic centers including Pew Research Center, Harvard University, and private firms similar to Ipsos for sample procurement, data processing, and poll weighting. These ties extend to syndication with networks like CNBC and international outlets such as the BBC when issues have global resonance.
Releases have influenced campaign narratives, fundraising appeals, and messaging strategies used by political consultants affiliated with firms like AKPD and GMMB, affected media coverage on platforms from Cable News Network to Fox Business Network, and contributed to public understanding of electoral dynamics debated in legislative settings such as state legislatures and testimony before committees in Capitol Hill hearings. Academic citations in journals produced by American Political Science Association and policy discussions at institutions like Carnegie Endowment for International Peace attest to its role in shaping analyses of partisan polarization, turnout behavior, and media effects.
Category:Public opinion research