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| Mann et al. | |
|---|---|
| Name | Mann et al. |
| Notable works | "Mann et al." |
| Fields | Climate science |
| Institutions | University of Virginia |
Mann et al. is a widely cited scientific paper and author team led by Michael E. Mann that produced influential reconstructions of historical temperature records, often summarized by the "hockey stick" graph. The work intersected with debates involving Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Royal Society, and various scientific journals, shaping public and policy conversations alongside figures such as James Hansen, Gavin Schmidt, Philip D. Jones, and Benjamin Santer.
Mann et al. emerged amid discussions that included United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol, Rio Earth Summit, World Meteorological Organization, and research groups at University of East Anglia, Hadley Centre, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Princeton University, and Harvard University. The work built on proxy efforts by Keith Briffa, Philippe D. Jones, Raymond S. Bradley, Hans von Storch, and databases like the PAGES (Past Global Changes) initiative and the National Climate Data Center. Historical context included high-profile exchanges visible in venues such as Nature (journal), Science (journal), and reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that featured contributions by Susan Solomon, Richard S. Lindzen, Judith Curry, and Willie Soon.
Mann et al. reported reconstructions indicating late 20th-century warming rates that were unprecedented over the past millennium, a result that informed assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and discussion among policymakers from United States Congress committees to international bodies like the European Commission. The reconstruction tied into instrumental records from HadCRUT, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, Berkeley Earth, and paleoclimate proxies used by researchers such as Ed Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Ulf Büntgen, and Mann H. (note: distinct persons). This contribution influenced subsequent work by teams at Columbia University, Yale University, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and was cited in debates involving commentators such as George Monbiot, Bjorn Lomborg, Mark Steyn, and Christopher Monckton.
The team applied statistical techniques including principal component analysis and calibration/verification against instrumental series like Central England Temperature, NOAA Paleoclimatology Data, CRU TS, and tree-ring chronologies cataloged by International Tree-Ring Data Bank. Sources incorporated lake sediments, ice cores from Greenland Ice Sheet Project, Antarctic Ice Core records, coral proxies from the Great Barrier Reef, and documentary records used in reconstructions by Phil Jones and Michael Hughes. Methods referenced matrix operations common in work by Herman van der Waals-era mathematics and statistical frameworks discussed in literature by Karl Pearson, Ronald A. Fisher, and contemporary statisticians. The approach was compared with alternative algorithms employed by groups at NOAA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and independent efforts like the Muller et al. Berkeley Earth Project.
The publication prompted strong attention from scientific communities including members of the Royal Society, editors at Nature, and committees of the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; it also became focal in public controversies involving media outlets such as The New York Times, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, and BBC News. Critics ranged from academic researchers like Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick to political figures debating U.S. Senate hearings and legal disputes that involved institutions such as the University of Virginia and organizations like the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Independent assessments and inquiries by panels including those convened by National Research Council and reviews cited work by Benjamin Santer and Lynne Talley; responses engaged commentators including Naomi Oreskes and Eric Steig.
The analysis influenced climate attribution studies by researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, and helped shape educational materials used by institutions like Smithsonian Institution and curricula referenced by National Science Teachers Association. It catalyzed further paleoclimate syntheses by teams involving Mann, Bradley, Hughes, Jones, Briffa, and newer efforts by PAGES 2k Consortium, IPCC AR5 authors, and projects funded by agencies such as National Science Foundation, European Research Council, and Department of Energy. The legacy includes methodological refinements in proxy system modeling exploited by groups at ETH Zurich, University of Bern, University of Copenhagen, and ongoing debates visible in proceedings of conferences hosted by American Geophysical Union and European Geosciences Union.