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| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios | |
|---|---|
| Name | Special Report on Emissions Scenarios |
| Author | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| Country | International |
| Language | English |
| Released | 2000 |
| Subject | Climate change, greenhouse gas |
| Media type | Report |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios is a 2000 assessment produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to provide quantitative pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions for use in climate modelling by groups such as the Hadley Centre, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and research teams at MIT, Stanford University, and the Princeton University. The report synthesised inputs from national agencies including the United States Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Japan Meteorological Agency, informing assessments by stakeholders such as the World Bank, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and policymakers in capitals like Washington, D.C., Beijing, New Delhi, and London. It provided the basis for scenario-driven work in subsequent assessments including the Fourth Assessment Report and influences on modelling centres like IPSL and CSIRO.
The report originated from a mandate at sessions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and collaborative workshops involving scientists from institutions such as Columbia University, University of California, Berkeley, University of Oxford, Imperial College London, ETH Zurich, University of Tokyo, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, and Paul Scherrer Institute. Contributors included research groups affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (Japan), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Institute of Development Studies, and the OECD. The development process involved review editors and lead authors from organisations like National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory, and was overseen by IPCC Working Group representatives and bureaux drawn from delegations to the United Nations.
SRES used integrated assessment modelling performed by teams at IIASA, MESSAGE, IMAGE, POLES, AIM, and REGIONALIZATION-based groups, linking sectoral models from Electric Power Research Institute and transport models used by International Energy Agency analysts. Methodology combined demographic inputs from United Nations Population Division projections, economic inputs drawing on datasets maintained by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, and technology diffusion assumptions informed by studies from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Rocky Mountain Institute. The report specified emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and industrial forcings following conventions used by World Meteorological Organization and Global Carbon Project teams, mapping outputs to concentration scenarios used by general circulation models at NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre, and university groups.
SRES introduced narrative storylines grouped into families labelled A1, A2, B1, and B2 developed by teams at IIASA, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Mitchell, and IIASA/Oxford collaborators; marker scenarios included pathway variants such as A1FI, A1B, and A1T used by modelling centres like GISS and HadCM3. Storylines described contrasting trajectories comparable to scenario traditions in Shell corporate planning and academic work at Harvard University and Yale University, used by analysts in institutions such as McKinsey & Company and Deloitte. The marker scenarios were designed to be neutral with respect to specific policies endorsed by bodies such as the European Union or national legislatures in Germany, Australia, and Canada.
The report produced ranges of future emissions consistent with the narrative families, providing tables of projected carbon dioxide emissions, radiative forcing estimates akin to later work cited by the National Research Council, and trajectory inputs employed by CMIP model intercomparisons. Projections informed concentration inputs comparable to those used in analyses by James Hansen at NASA GISS, Syukuro Manabe-related modelling traditions, and the MAGICC simple climate model runs used in policy reports by the European Environment Agency and United Nations Environment Programme. Emissions pathways influenced energy system scenarios developed at BP, ExxonMobil research groups, and national agencies like EIA.
SRES outcomes were compared across integrated assessment models including IMAGE 2.2, POLES, REMIND, MESSAGE, WITCH, and climate models in the CMIP framework such as HadCM3, ECHAM4, and GFDL CM2. The report documented structural uncertainty arising from assumptions used by teams at IIASA, Potsdam Institute, MIT Joint Program, and Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, and noted scenario uncertainty distinct from parametric uncertainty analysed by groups like National Center for Atmospheric Research and the US Global Change Research Program. Uncertainty discussion referenced methodological work by Nicholas Stern and critiques from scholars at University College London and London School of Economics.
SRES was widely used in assessments by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change bodies, national communications by parties such as United States, China, India, Brazil, and in international reports by the World Bank, International Energy Agency, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Influential users included researchers at IPCC Working Group I, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and consultancy firms working for ministries in France, Italy, and Spain. The scenarios underpinned analyses in the Kyoto Protocol-era literature and informed economic studies by William Nordhaus and Nicholas Stern used in policy debates in United Kingdom and United States.
Critiques emerged from academics at Princeton University, Columbia University, Stanford University, and think tanks such as Resources for the Future and World Resources Institute, focusing on representation of technology change, regional detail, and absence of explicit policy pathways. These debates led to development of Representative Concentration Pathways by modelling groups at IIASA, Potsdam Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Met Office, and NASA, and to scenario protocols for CMIP5 and CMIP6 coordinated by World Climate Research Programme and adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in later assessment cycles. Subsequent work integrated advances from research centres including Stanford Woods Institute, Princeton Environmental Institute, and Imperial College Business School to expand scenario frameworks.
Category:Climate change reports