HayWired earthquake scenario
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| HayWired earthquake scenario | |
|---|---|
| Name | HayWired scenario |
| Date | 2018 (release) |
| Location | San Francisco Bay Area, California, United States |
| Magnitude | M7.0 (modeled) |
| Depth | 11 km (modeled) |
| Agencies | USGS, FEMA, California Geological Survey, Pacific Gas and Electric Company |
HayWired earthquake scenario is a multidisciplinary scientific exercise developed to model the effects of a major seismic event on the San Francisco Bay Area. The scenario integrates seismology, engineering, urban infrastructure, public health, and economics to project how a hypothetical magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault would propagate damage across transportation, utilities, communications, and social systems. Led by the United States Geological Survey and partnered with organizations across academia, industry, and state agencies, the scenario has become a reference point for resilience planning, emergency management, and academic research.
Overview
HayWired was produced principally by the United States Geological Survey in collaboration with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the California Geological Survey, the City and County of San Francisco, and private-sector partners including Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Meta Platforms. The project synthesized inputs from institutions such as the Seismological Society of America, Stanford University, University of California, Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and California Institute of Technology. The scenario aimed to provide detailed simulated outputs for planners at agencies like the California Office of Emergency Services and corporations including AT&T, Wells Fargo, and PG&E Corporation to guide investments and preparedness. Visualizations and technical products were distributed through platforms used by entities such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the American Red Cross.
Seismological assumptions and modeled event
The modeled mainshock is a magnitude 7.0 oblique-slip rupture on the Hayward Fault with hypocenter parameters informed by paleoseismology studies from researchers at University of California, Santa Cruz and San Francisco State University. Ground-motion models incorporated empirical Green's functions from databases maintained by SCEC and spectral attenuation relationships developed by scientists affiliated with USGS and Caltech. Aftershock sequences were simulated using rate-and-state formulations from work by G. C. Beroza and others at Stanford University, while site amplification used shear-wave velocity profiles compiled by teams from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the California Geological Survey. Liquefaction susceptibility maps referenced historic observations from the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and borehole data archived at USGS and the United States Army Corps of Engineers.
Infrastructure impacts and cascading failures
HayWired modeled failure modes across electrical grids operated by Pacific Gas and Electric Company, water delivery systems run by agencies including the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and East Bay Municipal Utility District, and transportation assets such as Bay Area Rapid Transit and the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge. Telecommunication disruptions considered outages at carriers like AT&T, Verizon Communications, and infrastructure owned by Level 3 Communications and content providers such as Google. Scenario outputs documented cascading failures: loss of electric power led to pumping failures at Oakland International Airport and sewage lift stations managed by Metropolitan Transportation Commission partners, which in turn affected hospitals including UCSF Medical Center and Kaiser Permanente facilities. Freight and supply-chain interruptions referenced nodes at the Port of Oakland and rail corridors used by Union Pacific Railroad and BNSF Railway.
Social and economic consequences
Analyses estimated population displacement in jurisdictions like Alameda County, Contra Costa County, San Mateo County, and the City and County of San Francisco, affecting demographic groups identified in studies by Pew Research Center and Urban Institute. Economic impact modeling drew on methods developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences and the RAND Corporation, projecting losses for sectors including technology employers such as Apple Inc., Facebook (Meta), and Cisco Systems, and finance firms in San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Public-health strains considered capacity at centers like Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and emergency-shelter demand coordinated through American Red Cross chapters and county health departments. Social vulnerability metrics referenced indices from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and community datasets curated by Stanford Center on Longevity.
Emergency response and preparedness measures
HayWired produced actionable guidance for emergency managers at entities such as the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, San Francisco Emergency Management, and municipal fire departments including the San Francisco Fire Department and Oakland Fire Department. Scenario tools supported planning for search-and-rescue units coordinated with the California Office of Emergency Services and federal assets from FEMA Region IX. Communications interoperability was examined through partnerships with FirstNet Authority and county emergency operations centers, while medical surge strategies referenced protocols from the Department of Health and Human Services and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Public outreach examples drew upon community engagement practices used by American Red Cross and non-governmental groups like Local Initiatives Support Corporation.
Mitigation strategies and resilience planning
The scenario emphasized retrofitting priorities for lifeline structures overseen by Caltrans and transit agencies such as BART and Caltrain, and recommended utility hardening measures for PG&E and regional water districts. Land-use planning reforms referenced standards set by the California Building Standards Commission and seismic provisions of the International Building Code adapted by California Building Standards Commission. Insurance and financial readiness measures engaged stakeholders including the California Earthquake Authority and reinsurance markets that involve firms such as Swiss Re and Munich Re. Workforce continuity planning drew on strategies used by Tesla, Inc. and tech firms headquartered in Palo Alto and Mountain View.
Reception, critiques, and influence on policy and research
HayWired received attention from academic journals circulated by the Seismological Society of America and policy discussions in the California Legislature, where committees on natural resources and appropriations referenced scenario findings. Critics from independent researchers at MIT and policy analysts at Brookings Institution highlighted uncertainties in loss modeling and social assumptions, prompting follow-up studies at UC Berkeley and Stanford University. The scenario influenced investments in seismic resiliency programs by agencies like Caltrans and funding initiatives from the Department of Homeland Security, and spurred international interest from counterparts in Japan and New Zealand experienced with events like the Great Hanshin earthquake and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami.