Garnaut Climate Change Review

Garnaut Climate Change Review
Name	Ross Garnaut
Caption	Ross Garnaut in 2008
Birth date	1946
Birth place	Melbourne
Occupation	Economist
Notable works	Garnaut Climate Change Review

Garnaut Climate Change Review was a comprehensive assessment of the risks, impacts, and policy responses to anthropogenic climate change prepared for the Commonwealth of Australia and published in 2008 with an update in 2011. Led by economist Ross Garnaut, the review analysed interactions among greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, economic modelling, and policy instruments such as emissions trading and carbon pricing. Drawing on interdisciplinary evidence and international comparisons, it aimed to guide Australian policy amid debates involving Prime Minister of Australia, state premiers, and industry stakeholders.

Background and Commissioning

The review was commissioned by the Rudd Government following advocacy by figures including Ross Garnaut, Kevin Rudd, and ministers in the Department of the Treasury and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. It responded to international processes such as the Kyoto Protocol, negotiations at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and outcomes from forums including the G8 and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The panel convened experts from institutions like the Australian National University, University of Melbourne, CSIRO, and international partners such as the World Bank and International Energy Agency. Work drew on compilations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports, studies by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, and economic analyses in journals like The Australian Economic Review.

Key Findings and Conclusions

The review concluded that unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions posed substantial risks to Australian assets and sectors including the Great Barrier Reef, agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin, and urban infrastructure in coastal cities like Sydney and Melbourne. It projected temperature and sea-level changes consistent with scenarios from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and models used by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology. Economic modeling using integrated assessment frameworks indicated that early, predictable mitigation through market mechanisms would reduce long-term costs relative to delayed action, with comparisons to outcomes under frameworks such as the European Union Emissions Trading System and proposals advanced by Nicholas Stern. The review underscored co-benefits with investments in renewable energy technologies promoted by institutions like the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and risks from continued dependence on fossil fuels tied to companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto.

Policy Recommendations

Recommendations included adoption of a national emissions trading scheme linked to international carbon markets, phased targets for greenhouse gas reductions aligned with global stabilization scenarios, and transitional assistance for industries exposed to international competition such as mining and manufacturing, involving agencies like the Productivity Commission. The review advocated broad-based carbon pricing with mechanisms similar to proposals from the Garrett Government era and administrative arrangements drawing on models from the Australian Securities Exchange for financial instruments. It proposed incentives for carbon sequestration in land-use systems involving stakeholders like the National Farmers' Federation and research partnerships with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. The report also recommended strengthened adaptation planning across jurisdictions including state governments such as the New South Wales Government and federal agencies including the Department of Climate Change.

Reception and Criticism

Responses encompassed support from academics at the Australian National University and advocacy groups such as the Australian Conservation Foundation and criticism from political figures in the Liberal Party of Australia and industry groups like the Business Council of Australia. Commentators in outlets including The Australian and The Sydney Morning Herald debated the review’s reliance on long-run discount rates and economic modelling assumptions cited by commentators such as Ross Garnaut himself and critics invoking work by William Nordhaus and Martin Weitzman. Some indigenous organizations and regional councils welcomed adaptation emphasis but critiqued perceived insufficient engagement with Indigenous Australians and local governments such as the City of Brisbane. International observers compared its recommendations to policy paths in the United Kingdom and New Zealand.

Impact and Implementation

Elements of the review influenced the design of the Australian Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and later the legislative measures that established the Carbon Pricing Mechanism introduced by the Rudd Government and implemented under the Gillard Government. The review informed regulatory debates involving the Clean Energy Regulator and market links considered with the European Union and New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. Its analysis contributed to investment signals that affected projects by firms such as Origin Energy and AGL Energy in renewable energy and carbon capture and storage demonstrations. Political shifts, including the 2013 change in prime ministership to Tony Abbott, led to repeal and modification of some measures, illustrating the interface between expert advice and parliamentary politics in the Australian Parliament.

Subsequent Reviews and Legacy

A 2011 update refined emission trajectories and pricing pathways, and later national and state reviews built on its frameworks, including assessments by the Climate Change Authority and reports from the Victorian Government and Queensland Government. The review’s influence persists in academic citations across journals such as Nature Climate Change and policy discourse in institutions like the Grattan Institute and Lowy Institute. It remains a reference point in debates over Australian engagement in international regimes including Paris Agreement negotiations and continues to inform scholarship at universities including University of Queensland and Australian National University.

Category:Climate change policy in Australia