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| Election Analyst | |
|---|---|
| Name | Election Analyst |
| Occupation | Analyst |
| Fields | Political forecasting, Polling analysis, Data journalism |
Election Analyst An election analyst interprets electoral processes, forecasts results, and communicates implications of contests such as presidential, parliamentary, and local races. Practitioners draw on polling, demographic, and historical data to advise campaigns, media outlets, and institutions during events like the United States presidential election, United Kingdom general election, and European Parliament contests. Election analysts operate at the intersection of forecasting models used by groups such as FiveThirtyEight, The Economist and advisory bodies like Pew Research Center.
Election analysts synthesize information about contests including the 2016 United States presidential election, Brexit referendum, and 2019 Indian general election to produce projections for audiences ranging from the BBC to CNN viewers. Their work references archival material from National Archives and Records Administration and data repositories such as the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research and the European Social Survey. Analysts frequently collaborate with journalists from outlets like The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Guardian as well as scholars at institutions including Harvard University, Stanford University, and the University of Oxford.
Analysts advise campaigns such as those of Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Theresa May, and Emmanuel Macron on strategy, help networks like NBC News and Al Jazeera interpret returns, and brief civic organizations including League of Women Voters. Tasks include designing surveys with firms like Gallup or YouGov, assessing turnout trends observed in elections like the 2018 United States midterm elections and the 2017 French presidential election, and preparing legal teams for post-election disputes similar to cases before the Supreme Court of the United States or the European Court of Human Rights. They also monitor electoral integrity efforts by groups such as Transparency International and International IDEA.
Methods include exit polling techniques used by the National Election Pool, model averaging practiced at FiveThirtyEight, and Bayesian approaches taught in programs at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University. Tools include statistical software like R (programming language), Python (programming language), and platforms such as Tableau and GitHub for reproducible workflows. Analysts rely on mapping tools from Esri and visualization standards promoted by organizations like the Cartographic and Geographic Information Society; they publish briefs that may appear in journals such as the Journal of Democracy or on blogs maintained by researchers at Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute.
Primary data sources encompass pre-election polls by YouGov, Ipsos, and Ipsos MORI; voter files maintained by Statewide databases and agencies like the Federal Election Commission; and administrative records from offices such as Electoral Commission (United Kingdom). Analysts employ statistical techniques including regression analysis exemplified in work at London School of Economics, time-series models used by teams at Carnegie Mellon University, and machine learning methods developed at Google. Historical comparisons reference contests such as the 2000 United States presidential election and the 1994 Mexican general election, while demographic breakdowns draw on censuses from the United States Census Bureau and Office for National Statistics.
Ethical issues arise when projecting outcomes during close counts similar to disputes in Florida recount, requiring awareness of laws like the Help America Vote Act and guidance from bodies such as International Foundation for Electoral Systems. Legal constraints include embargoes observed by media coalitions during returns and regulations enforced by the Federal Communications Commission in the United States or the Ofcom regulator in the United Kingdom. Analysts must adhere to professional norms promoted by associations like the American Statistical Association and consider privacy rules such as the General Data Protection Regulation when handling voter data.
Prominent individuals and organizations include forecasters and commentators affiliated with Nate Silver and Sam Wang models at FiveThirtyEight and Princeton Election Consortium, research teams at Pew Research Center and Pew Research Center, editorial teams at The Economist and BBC News, and academic groups at Harvard Kennedy School and Columbia University. Other influential entities include Decision Desk HQ, The Cook Political Report, RealClearPolitics, Associated Press, Reuters, and think tanks like RAND Corporation and Cato Institute that publish election analyses.
Election analysis shapes narratives in outlets such as Fox News, MSNBC, and Bloomberg News, influences legislative reactions in bodies like the United States Congress and the European Parliament, and affects donor and activist behavior in movements such as Black Lives Matter and Tea Party movement. High-profile projections have altered stock-market responses on exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and elicited commentary from leaders including Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, and Angela Merkel. The field continues to evolve with contributions from multidisciplinary teams spanning Columbia Journalism School, University of California, Berkeley, and nonprofit efforts like ProPublica.
Category:Politics