DHS National Risk Profile

DHS National Risk Profile
Name	DHS National Risk Profile
Formed	2011
Jurisdiction	United States
Headquarters	Washington, D.C.
Parent agency	United States Department of Homeland Security

DHS National Risk Profile The DHS National Risk Profile is a United States United States Department of Homeland Security analytic product that assesses the comparative risk from natural hazards, technological hazards, and human-caused threats across the United States. Created to inform Federal Emergency Management Agency planning, Office of the Director of National Intelligence coordination, and interagency resource prioritization, it synthesizes probabilistic hazard models, consequence analysis, and resilience metrics to guide preparedness across federal, state, and local partners.

Overview

The Profile integrates hazard assessments drawn from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Geological Survey, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Environmental Protection Agency, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration datasets to compare the relative likelihood and consequence of events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, pandemics, cyberattacks, and industrial accidents. It is intended to inform planning efforts by agencies including Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Defense, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Energy, and Transportation Security Administration, and to support statutory obligations under laws such as the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 and directives from the White House Homeland Security Council. The Profile uses inputs like flood inundation maps from National Weather Service, seismic hazard models from USGS National Seismic Hazard Model, disease outbreak scenarios influenced by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance, and cybersecurity threat assessments aligned with National Institute of Standards and Technology frameworks.

Development and Methodology

Development was led by teams within United States Department of Homeland Security analytic offices in collaboration with subject-matter experts from National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, academic centers such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Johns Hopkins University, and University of California, Berkeley, and private sector partners including Booz Allen Hamilton and RAND Corporation. Methodology combines probabilistic risk assessment techniques used in Federal Emergency Management Agency hazard mitigation planning, fragility curve approaches applied in Nuclear Regulatory Commission analyses, and consequence quantification analogous to Department of Energy energy infrastructure studies. The Profile leverages modeling tools and standards from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-aligned climate projections, U.S. Global Change Research Program scenarios, and epidemiological modeling methods associated with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization practices. Peer review processes have involved panels including representatives from National Science Foundation, American Red Cross, and state emergency management agencies such as the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.

Key Findings and Risks Identified

The Profile highlights a range of prioritized risks including coastal storms and hurricanes exemplified by events like Hurricane Katrina, cascading failures in critical infrastructure comparable to the Northeast blackout of 2003, major earthquakes similar to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or events on the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and infectious disease pandemics reminiscent of the 1918 influenza pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic. It also identifies cyber threats targeting supply chains and utility control systems as seen in incidents like the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack and nation-state intrusion campaigns attributed to actors linked to Advanced Persistent Threats. Technological hazards referenced include industrial chemical releases similar to the Bhopal disaster and radiological events with analogues to the Three Mile Island accident. The Profile emphasizes interdependencies among sectors identified in Presidential Policy Directive 21 and gap areas noted in After-Action Reports following emergencies such as Hurricane Sandy and Superstorm Sandy.

Federal Interagency Use and Policy Impact

Agencies use the Profile to prioritize grant guidance for programs such as FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program and FEMA National Preparedness Grant Program, to inform continuity planning in line with Presidential Policy Directive 40, and to support infrastructure investment decisions tied to legislation like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The Profile has been cited in strategic documents produced by Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, and Department of Health and Human Services for resilience planning, and contributes to tabletop exercises run by Federal Emergency Management Agency and North Atlantic Treaty Organization partner engagement for domestic support scenarios. Its outputs feed risk registers used by Office of Management and Budget and coordination efforts with State of California and other state executive offices for hazard mitigation planning.

Criticisms and Limitations

Critiques from academic and practitioner communities including scholars at Harvard University, Stanford University, and think tanks like Center for Strategic and International Studies and Brookings Institution point to limitations in data granularity, model uncertainty, and weighting of social vulnerability factors such as those studied by Urban Institute and Pew Research Center. Civil society groups including American Civil Liberties Union have raised concerns about privacy implications when risk assessments incorporate National Security Agency-sourced cyber threat indicators. Emergency managers from jurisdictions such as New York City and Louisiana have highlighted that national-level aggregation can obscure local hazards emphasized in state hazard mitigation plans submitted under Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act processes. Methodological critiques also reference challenges documented by the National Research Council regarding cascading failure modeling and low-probability high-consequence event characterization.

Updates and Future Revisions

Revisions to the Profile have followed major events like Hurricane Sandy and the COVID-19 pandemic with updates to incorporate improved epidemiological modeling, climate-informed hazard projections from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, and enhanced cyber risk frameworks aligned with National Institute of Standards and Technology guidance. Future iterations are expected to integrate real-time data streams from sensors managed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and USGS, to adopt machine learning methods explored at institutions like Carnegie Mellon University and University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, and to better align with resilience metrics advanced by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Ongoing interagency reviews will involve stakeholders including Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security, state emergency management agencies, and private infrastructure owners to refine scenario selection and consequence modeling.

Category:United States Department of Homeland Security