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| Case–Shiller Home Price Index | |
|---|---|
| Name | Case–Shiller Home Price Index |
| Company | S&P Dow Jones Indices |
| Introduced | 1987 |
Case–Shiller Home Price Index
The Case–Shiller Home Price Index is a widely cited measure of residential real estate prices in the United States, compiled by economists and published by an index provider. It tracks repeat-sales of single-family homes across metropolitan areas and is used by analysts, policymakers, investors, academics, and media organizations to assess housing market trends. Originating from academic research, the series has become integral to financial markets and macroeconomic analysis.
The index was developed by Karl Case, Robert Shiller, and accompanying researchers, and later maintained by Standard & Poor's in partnership with Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. It covers multiple metropolitan statistical areas including New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and Boston, with national composites reflecting aggregated performance. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America routinely cite the index in reports; media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC report its monthly releases. Central banks like the Federal Reserve Board and international organizations including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reference the index in research and policy discussions.
The index uses a repeat-sales methodology pioneered in academic literature by Case and Shiller, adjusting for property-specific quality by comparing successive sales of the same property. Statistical techniques draw on time-series econometrics used in studies from Edward Leamer and contemporaries, and incorporate hedonic- and repeat-sale-based adjustments akin to methods in work by Kenneth Arrow and Zvi Griliches. Data are sourced from county recorder offices and multiple listing services in collaboration with regional data providers such as CoreLogic and Black Knight, Inc., and undergo procedures consistent with standards referenced by National Bureau of Economic Research researchers. Seasonal adjustment and rolling composite calculations produce the well-known 10-city and 20-city indices, as well as a single-nation composite employed in macroeconomic analysis by academics at Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, and Princeton University.
Published variants include single-city series for metros like Seattle, Miami, Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Denver, plus broader aggregates: the 20-City Composite, 10-City Composite, and the U.S. National Home Price Index. Specialized versions and related indices are created by organizations such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Federal Housing Finance Agency; private-sector analogues include indices from Zillow and Redfin. Academic and industry users also construct seasonal-adjusted, smoothed, and repeat-sales-trimmed versions for back-testing strategies used by hedge funds like Bridgewater Associates and asset managers such as BlackRock.
The series documents major housing cycles: the sustained price appreciation of the 1990s and 2000s, the dramatic bubble and peak in the mid-2000s, the post-2008 financial crisis decline, and the recovery and expansion in the 2010s and 2020s. Specific metropolitan peaks and troughs are visible in markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, Washington, D.C., and San Jose. Major shocks associated with policy events—like responses to the Great Recession, quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve System, and fiscal interventions under administrations of George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump—are evident in the index’s trajectory. International comparisons involve nations tracked by organizations like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and central banks in United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Germany.
Investors use the index for valuation, risk modeling, and to inform mortgage-backed securities analysis produced by firms such as Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch Ratings. Policymakers reference it in housing policy debates in legislatures such as the United States Congress and in reports by agencies like the Department of Housing and Urban Development and Federal Housing Administration. Real estate developers, homebuilders including D.R. Horton and Lennar Corporation, and mortgage lenders like Wells Fargo and Quicken Loans monitor the index for demand signals. Derivative products and research papers use Case–Siller-based series in academic journals published by American Economic Association and presentations at conferences organized by National Association of Realtors.
Critics note the index’s focus on single-family repeat sales may underrepresent new construction markets and condominiums, as discussed by scholars at Brookings Institution and Urban Institute. Coverage gaps in rural counties and reliance on recorded transactions can lag in volatile markets, a limitation highlighted by analysts at Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and commentators in The Economist. Concerns about seasonal adjustment, weighting methodologies, and regional representativeness are raised by researchers from Columbia University, Yale University, and private firms such as CoreLogic. Alternative metrics and adjustments are often proposed by academics and industry groups including National Association of Home Builders.
S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes monthly releases and accompanying methodology summaries; data are distributed to subscribers, journalists, and researchers and are cited in databases maintained by institutions such as Federal Reserve Economic Data at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Historical series are used in doctoral dissertations at universities such as University of Chicago and Northwestern University. Data licensing and usage terms are governed by S&P policies and coordinated with academic partners including the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics.
Category:Real estate indices