California Nevada River Forecast Center

California Nevada River Forecast Center
Name	California Nevada River Forecast Center
Native name	CN RFC
Type	Federal weather service center
Headquarters	Sacramento, California
Parent organization	National Weather Service
Established	1978

California Nevada River Forecast Center

The California Nevada River Forecast Center provides river forecasting, hydrologic modeling, and water resources guidance spanning the Central Valley (California), Sierra Nevada (United States), and portions of the Great Basin. The center operates as part of the National Weather Service and collaborates with agencies such as the United States Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, California Department of Water Resources, and regional water districts. It supports stakeholders including the California State Water Resources Control Board, Nevada Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and local emergency managers.

Overview

The center produces streamflow forecasts, flood watches, and hydrologic analyses for basins draining into the San Francisco Bay, Sacramento River (California), San Joaquin River, Truckee River, and tributaries to the Colorado River systems. Utilizing inputs from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center, and the National Snow and Ice Data Center, it issues operational products that inform operations at Oroville Dam, Shasta Dam, Folsom Lake, and Lake Tahoe management. Coordination extends to water resource entities such as the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California and flood control districts including the Santa Clara Valley Water District.

History

Founded in the late 1970s amid advances at the National Weather Service and following hydrologic initiatives prompted by events like the Great Flood of 1862 and repeated California floods, the center grew from river forecast offices in the Western United States network. It expanded capability during flood episodes such as the Northeast Pacific storms of 1997–98 and the California floods of 1995–96, integrating technologies developed at NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the University of California, Berkeley. Post-2000 enhancements followed research collaborations with institutions including Stanford University, University of Nevada, Reno, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Mission and responsibilities

The center’s mission emphasizes timely, accurate river forecasts to reduce risk to life and property and to support water operations at infrastructure managed by the Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers, and state agencies. Responsibilities include producing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for snowmelt-driven basins like the Sierra Nevada (United States), delivering operational guidance during atmospheric river events linked to the Pacific storm track, and providing decision support for reservoir operations at projects under the Central Valley Project and State Water Project (California). It supports emergency response coordination with the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, Nevada Division of Emergency Management, and local governments.

Forecasting services and products

Products include quantitative precipitation forecasts, streamflow volume forecasts, snow water equivalent analyses, reservoir inflow projections, and real-time hydrograph guidance for urban areas such as Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and Sacramento. The center issues operational products that integrate data from networks such as the Cooperative Observer Program, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, NEXRAD, and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service. Specialized products inform dam operators at facilities like New Melones Reservoir and Don Pedro Reservoir and provide flood inundation mapping used by agencies including the National Flood Insurance Program and American Red Cross.

Technology and modeling

The center uses hydrologic models such as the Hydrologic Engineering Center―Hydrologic Modeling System, ensemble systems from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and snowpack analysis tools informed by SNODAS and remote sensing from Landsat, MODIS, and GRACE. Forecasting is supported by supercomputing resources coordinated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration computing centers and research partnerships with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and California Institute of Technology. Data assimilation integrates stream gage records from the United States Geological Survey streamflow network, radar inputs from NEXRAD sites, and satellite precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission.

Operational areas and partnerships

Operational responsibility covers the Sacramento River basin, San Joaquin basin, the Lahontan basin including the Truckee and Carson rivers, and portions of the Walker River watershed. Partnerships include the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, California Department of Water Resources, regional water agencies like the San Luis & Delta–Mendota Water Authority, and academic partners such as the University of California, Davis and California State University, Sacramento. The center supports interagency exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, California offices, and multi-state coordination with Nevada Division of Water Resources.

Notable events and flood responses

The center played a central forecasting role during the California floods of 1995–96, the Great Flood of 1997 impacts across the Pacific Northwest and California, and the prolonged California droughts that affected water supply management for the State Water Project. It provided ensemble and real-time guidance during high-impact atmospheric river events in 2017, 2019, and the widespread winter storms of 2022 that affected Lake Oroville operations and floodplain management in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. Coordination during these events involved the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Army Corps of Engineers, state emergency services, and municipal utilities.

Category:National Weather Service Category:Hydrology