Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
Name	Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
Formation	2000s
Type	Non-profit research network

Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas is an independent network of researchers, analysts, and activists focused on the study of hydrocarbon depletion and its socioeconomic consequences. The association connects scholars and practitioners from diverse institutions including University of Oxford, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Imperial College London, Columbia University, and Australian National University to examine production trends for North Sea oil, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Mexico, Siberia, and West Texas plays. It engages with policy actors such as United Nations, European Commission, International Energy Agency, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and national agencies like United States Department of Energy and Department of Energy and Climate Change.

History

The association emerged during the 2000s amid debates sparked by publications from figures linked to ASPO Ireland and proponents around M. King Hubbert's legacy, following earlier work by researchers at Shell plc, ExxonMobil, BP plc, and academic centers like Stanford University and University of Cambridge. Early meetings included participants previously affiliated with conferences in Paris, Brussels, Dublin, and Melbourne and drew on modeling traditions associated with Hubbert Peak Theory, the Club of Rome, and analyses published in journals such as Nature (journal), Science (journal), and Energy Policy. Key interlocutors included individuals connected to L. F. Ivanhoe, Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrère, and analysts from Cambridge Energy Research Associates and Wood Mackenzie.

Objectives and Activities

The association aims to synthesize geological, engineering, and statistical evidence to inform stakeholders including representatives from European Parliament, United States Congress, Parliament of the United Kingdom, and municipal bodies in Berlin, Paris, and Tokyo. Activities include producing scenario analyses that intersect with modeling practices used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, and think tanks such as International Institute for Strategic Studies and Chatham House. The group also collaborates with non-governmental organizations like Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, and WWF International on outreach and capacity-building projects.

Research and Publications

Research outputs range from peer-reviewed papers in venues like Energy (journal), Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences to technical reports emulating frameworks used by BP Statistical Review of World Energy and EIA Annual Energy Outlook. Studies published by members address topics tied to Offshore drilling in the North Sea, production decline curves in Cantarell Field, reserve estimation in Ghawar Field, and unconventional resources such as Bakken Formation and Permian Basin. The association has produced comparative analyses employing methods from Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference, and reservoir engineering traditions linked to texts by Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Jean Laherrère, and scholars at Princeton University.

Conferences and Events

Annual and regional conferences have been hosted in cities including London, Dublin, Rome, New York City, Sydney, and Tokyo, often featuring panels with participants from Royal Society, American Geophysical Union, Society of Petroleum Engineers, International Association for Energy Economics, and representatives of national oil companies like Saudi Aramco, Rosneft, CNPC, and Petrobras. Symposia have covered intersections with events such as the COP (Conference of the Parties), G20 Summit, and hearings before bodies like the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Workshops have brought together modellers from MIT Energy Initiative, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and consultants from McKinsey & Company.

Organizational Structure and Membership

The association operates as a loose federation of volunteers, regional chapters, and affiliated researchers drawn from institutions such as University of Texas at Austin, University of Alberta, McGill University, University of Melbourne, and National University of Singapore. Leadership has historically included conveners with backgrounds at Imperial College, University of Cambridge, and industry veterans formerly of Chevron Corporation and TotalEnergies. Membership spans academics, former civil servants from agencies like US Geological Survey, consultants from IHS Markit, and activists connected to Transition Towns initiatives.

Influence and Criticism

The association's work has influenced policy debates in forums such as European Parliament briefings, United States Department of Energy workshops, and submissions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It has been cited by journalists at The Guardian, The New York Times, Financial Times, and analysts at Bloomberg News and Reuters. Critics—ranging from energy company spokespersons at ExxonMobil and Shell plc to scholars at Harvard University and Johns Hopkins University—have challenged some methodologies, pointing to uncertainties highlighted by institutions like International Energy Agency and disputing interpretations advanced by proponents associated with Peak Oil (book). Debates have engaged contrarians linked to Julian Simon-style resource optimism and supporters of technological solutions promoted by Electric Power Research Institute and proponents of shale gas revolution narratives.

Category:Energy organizations