ABC News/Washington Post Polling

ABC News/Washington Post Polling
Name	ABC News/Washington Post Polling
Founded	1987
Founder	ABC News; The Washington Post
Country	United States
Headquarters	Washington, D.C.
Industry	Public opinion research
Key people	George Stephanopoulos; Kathleen Parker; Eugene Robinson
Services	Election polling; public opinion surveys

ABC News/Washington Post Polling is a joint polling collaboration between ABC News and The Washington Post that conducts national and state-level public opinion research in the United States. The collaboration became prominent in coverage of presidential elections, congressional races, and public attitudes toward foreign policy crises such as the Gulf War, Iraq War, and responses to events like the September 11 attacks. Its results have been widely cited by media outlets including CBS News, The New York Times, and Reuters.

Overview

The partnership combines journalistic resources from ABC News and editorial analysis from The Washington Post to produce timely surveys on voting intention, approval ratings, and policy attitudes linked to controversies such as Watergate-era reform debates and post-9/11 security discussions. Polls commonly track support for candidates like Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, George W. Bush, Joe Biden, and figures such as Bernie Sanders and John McCain. The results inform coverage in outlets including NPR, Bloomberg L.P., and The Wall Street Journal, and are used by political operatives from the Democratic Party (United States) and Republican Party (United States).

Methodology

ABC News/Washington Post Polling employs probability-based sampling methods drawing from lists such as registered voter rolls and likely voter screens used in contests like the 2008 United States presidential election and the 2016 United States presidential election. Interview modes have included live telephone interviewing utilizing Voter Contact Center-style call centers, automated interactive voice response where applicable in pilot studies modeled after techniques used by Gallup Poll and Pew Research Center, and mixed-mode approaches reflecting shifts seen at institutions like YouGov and YouGov-style internet panels. Weighting variables typically include demographic controls such as age cohorts influenced by analyses like those from U.S. Census Bureau, race and ethnicity categories comparable to codings in Civil Rights Act of 1964-era statistics, gender, education levels paralleling research at Harvard University and Stanford University, and regional balances by Federal Election Commission delineations. Question wording has been scrutinized in methodological reviews similar to those by the American Association for Public Opinion Research and adjustments have been made following best practices documented by ICPSR and scholars at Princeton University and University of Chicago.

Notable Polls and Results

ABC News/Washington Post Polling produced influential headline numbers in the 1992 United States presidential election coverage showing shifts among voters that preceded the Clinton–Gore victory, tracked surge patterns during Barack Obama’s 2008 primary victories over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, and registered post-convention bounces in cycles like the 2004 United States presidential election. Their 2016 surveys were widely cited for documenting the narrowing margins between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in battlegrounds such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. During foreign policy crises, their data informed debate over interventions such as the Bosnian War interventions and public reaction to the Syria conflict. Issue polling has captured public attitudes on topics that intersect with legislation like the Affordable Care Act and Supreme Court confirmation battles such as those involving Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.

Historical Impact and Reception

Media scholars and political scientists at institutions like Columbia University, University of Michigan, and Yale University have cited ABC News/Washington Post Polling as a major media pollster whose findings shape narratives in election nights, campaign strategy memos at organizations like the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee, and academic analyses of electoral realignments such as the post-1994 congressional landscape. Its briefings for editorial boards at The Washington Post and news programs hosted by personalities like David Muir and Lester Holt have influenced coverage. The aggregation services run by FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, and The Economist have included its results in their models and averages.

Criticisms and Controversies

Critics have questioned sample frames and likely-voter screens after high-profile misses in cycles such as the 2016 United States presidential election and midterms analyzed in the aftermath of 2018 United States elections. Methodological debates invoked comparisons to Nate Silver’s critiques of polling, discussions in The Atlantic and New Yorker analyses, and academic papers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology and University of Oxford examining nonresponse bias and weighting choices. Controversies have also arisen over question wording in surveys about contentious figures like Richard Nixon-era rehabilitation, impeachment inquiries exemplified by Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, and pandemic-era trust metrics during the COVID-19 pandemic where media commentators at CNN and Fox News offered divergent readings.

Comparison with Other Pollsters

Compared with legacy pollsters such as Gallup, Rasmussen Reports, and Pew Research Center, ABC News/Washington Post Polling emphasizes joint editorial context and national media distribution similar to partnerships like CBS News/New York Times collaborations. Methodologically, it parallels best practices at academic centers like NORC at the University of Chicago and commercial firms including Edison Research and SurveyMonkey when adopting mixed-mode designs. Modelers at FiveThirtyEight and The Cook Political Report weigh its outputs alongside state-level canvasses from organizations like Monmouth University Polling Institute and Quinnipiac University Poll for battleground analysis.

Category:Polling organizations