2015 Alberta general election

2015 Alberta general election
Dave Cournoyer · CC BY-SA 2.0 · source
Election name	28th Alberta general election
Country	Alberta
Type	parliamentary
Previous election	2012 Alberta general election
Previous year	2012
Next election	2019 Alberta general election
Next year	2019
Election date	May 5, 2015
Seats for election	87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
Majority seats	44

2015 Alberta general election The 2015 provincial election in Alberta was held on May 5, 2015, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly and resulted in a major political realignment. The contest ended the 44-year governance of the Progressive Conservative dynasty led by Jim Prentice and produced a majority for the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley. The outcome influenced provincial relations with the federal government, the Alberta economy and institutions such as the Alberta Energy Regulator.

Background

Before the vote, the province had been governed by the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta since 1971, first under leaders like Peter Lougheed and Don Getty and later under Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach, and Alison Redford. The previous legislature followed the 2012 Alberta general election, in which the Progressive Conservatives secured a majority despite challenges from the Wildrose Party led by Danielle Smith and the Liberal Party under Raj Sherman. In 2014 and 2015, Alberta faced fiscal pressure from a collapse in global crude oil prices that affected firms such as Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil, putting strain on provincial revenues and influencing debate on royalties and the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund. The Progressive Conservatives underwent leadership change when Jim Prentice succeeded Dave Hancock and sought a renewed mandate amid public concerns over health delivery at Alberta Health Services and infrastructure projects like Alberta's billion-dollar P3 projects.

Campaign

The campaign featured leaders including Jim Prentice (Progressive Conservative), Rachel Notley (New Democratic Party), Danielle Smith (Wildrose Party), Brian Jean (Wildrose, later), David Swann (Liberal), and Greg Clark (Alberta Party). Major issues included energy policy concerning oil sands, royalty frameworks tied to companies such as Cenovus Energy, fiscal policy regarding deficits and taxation, and public services including Alberta Health Services and education institutions like the University of Alberta and University of Calgary. Debates occurred in venues across urban centres including Calgary, Edmonton, Fort McMurray, and Red Deer, and involved media outlets such as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and CTV Television Network. The NDP contrasted its platform on social programs and labour rights with the Progressive Conservative emphasis on fiscal management and the Wildrose focus on conservative fiscal restraint influenced by figures like Stephen Harper. The campaign also saw controversies involving candidate nominations, floor-crossings affecting MLAs such as Len Webber, and strategic messaging on pipelines like TransCanada Corporation projects and market access to United States and Asia-Pacific consumers.

Election results

The election produced a historic result: the New Democratic Party (Alberta) won a majority of seats, displacing the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta after four decades. The NDP victory was concentrated in urban constituencies in Edmonton and Calgary, with notable wins against incumbents associated with the Progressive Conservative establishment. The Wildrose Party held several rural seats, maintaining strength in regions such as Lethbridge and Medicine Hat, while the Liberal Party of Alberta and Alberta Party captured fewer constituencies. Voter turnout was a matter of analysis, with comparisons drawn to turnout in the 2012 Alberta general election and other provincial elections such as the 2014 Ontario general election. The results triggered discussions about representation in the Legislative Assembly and the translation of popular vote into seats under Alberta’s electoral rules.

Aftermath and government formation

Following the count, Rachel Notley was sworn in as Premier, forming an NDP cabinet drawn from her caucus and involving appointments affecting ministries such as Alberta Health and Alberta Environment and Parks. The Progressive Conservatives entered opposition and underwent leadership reviews leading to resignations including that of Jim Prentice, prompting further leadership races and reorganization within the party involving figures like Jason Kenney in subsequent years. The Wildrose Party, led originally by Danielle Smith, faced internal debate and eventual merger discussions with the Progressive Conservatives, linking to broader conservative realignment in Alberta politics and culminating later in the creation of the United Conservative Party. The new government immediately addressed fiscal policy, energy strategy, and relations with the Government of Canada including premiers’ forums and intergovernmental negotiations.

Electoral system and boundaries

The election used single-member constituencies under the first-past-the-post voting method for the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. Electoral boundaries were the result of redistribution processes overseen by the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, reflecting population shifts in urban regions like Calgary–Nose Hill and Edmonton–Riverview and resource-driven communities such as Fort McMurray–Athabasca. The number of seats was 87, and debates about alternative systems such as proportional representation involved stakeholders including academics from institutions like the University of Calgary and University of Alberta and civil society actors like the Fair Vote Canada movement.

Opinion polling and projections

Throughout the campaign, polling by organizations such as Ipsos-Reid, Angus Reid Institute, and EKOS Research Associates tracked voter intentions, signaling a late surge for the New Democratic Party (Alberta). Polls contrasted with predictions from provincial political analysts at outlets like the Globe and Mail and the Edmonton Journal, and polling volatility was compared to trends seen federally under leaders such as Thomas Mulcair. Pundits and projection models factored in demographic patterns from census data by Statistics Canada and turnout models from Elections Alberta, with post-election analyses studying how regional swings in places like Calgary and Edmonton produced the decisive NDP majority.

Category:Provincial elections in Alberta