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| 2015–16 El Niño | |
|---|---|
| Name | 2015–16 El Niño |
| Type | El Niño–Southern Oscillation event |
| Start | 2015 |
| End | 2016 |
| Strongest | late 2015–early 2016 |
| Areas affected | Pacific Ocean, South America, Australia, Africa, North America, Asia |
2015–16 El Niño was a powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation episode that emerged in 2015 and persisted into 2016, producing widespread climatic anomalies and humanitarian impacts. Influenced by coupled interactions among the Pacific Ocean, the Atmosphere, and global circulation patterns recorded by institutions such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the event competed with the historical 1997–98 episode in intensity and scope. Scientific assessment involved organizations including the World Meteorological Organization, the Met Office, and university research centers across California, Peru, and Australia.
The event developed from anomalous sea surface temperature patterns across the equatorial Pacific Ocean modulated by changes in the Southern Oscillation captured by the Southern Oscillation Index and subsurface heat content observed by the TAO/TRITON array. Interactions among the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Walker circulation, and tropical convection over the Maritime Continent altered atmospheric teleconnections linking the Tropical Pacific to basins monitored by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Preceding conditions included a warm phase following activity in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and influences from volcanism recorded by monitoring centers in Iceland and the Philippines.
From mid-2014 into 2015, coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks intensified, with rapid warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and anomalous westerly wind bursts measured by NOAA satellites. By late 2015 the event reached peak strength, with record or near-record positive anomalies in Niño indices recorded by research groups at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the University of Hawaii. Concurrent upper-ocean heat content increases were evident from ARGO float data, while atmospheric signatures included altered convective patterns over Indonesia, suppressed monsoon onset over parts of South Asia, and amplified Rossby wave trains affecting the North Pacific and North Atlantic.
Globally, the event contributed to extremes in seasonal temperature and precipitation observed across continents tracked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and national meteorological services such as the Met Office and Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú. The warming influence of the event helped produce record annual mean surface temperatures reported by NOAA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the World Meteorological Organization. Teleconnections altered storm tracks tied to the Aleutian Low and the Pacific North American pattern, influencing winter severity in Canada, the United States, and parts of Europe.
In western South America, anomalously warm coastal waters off Peru and Ecuador disrupted fisheries managed by national authorities and affected species studied at institutions like the Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia and the Instituto del Mar del Perú. In Australia and Papua New Guinea, drought stresses impacted agricultural sectors monitored by agencies such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and contributed to bushfire concerns discussed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Eastern and southern Africa experienced altered rainfall patterns with humanitarian responses coordinated by United Nations agencies and regional bodies like the African Union. In the United States, variations in precipitation and temperature influenced water management in California and hurricane season anomalies monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Operational monitoring relied on multiagency networks including the TAO/TRITON array, ARGO, polar-orbiting missions from NOAA and NASA, and reanalysis products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Forecasts combined dynamical models developed at NOAA/GFDL, ensemble systems from the Met Office Unified Model, and statistical approaches from research groups at Columbia University and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The timing and amplitude forecasts informed preparedness measures by national services such as Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico), Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), and Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (Venezuela).
Economic and humanitarian consequences included fishery collapses off the coast of Peru affecting exporters and small-scale fishers represented by local unions and commerce chambers, drought-driven crop failures in Indonesia and Ethiopia leading to food security responses by World Food Programme, and amplified flood damage in parts of South America prompting emergency actions by national disaster agencies. Environmental impacts involved coral bleaching on reefs monitored by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and long-term ecological stresses studied by conservation organizations such as WWF and research teams at the Smithsonian Institution.
Post-event analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, teams at NOAA, NASA, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and universities including University of Oxford and Princeton University examined the roles of natural variability and anthropogenic warming. Attribution studies used climate model ensembles from projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to separate greenhouse gas forcing documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from internal variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Results advanced understanding of extreme-event attribution and informed updates to operational forecasting systems maintained by agencies such as the World Meteorological Organization and regional climate centers.
Category:El Niño events