UK Climate Projections (UKCP)
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| UK Climate Projections (UKCP) | |
|---|---|
| Name | UK Climate Projections |
| Developer | Met Office Hadley Centre |
| Released | 2009 (UKCP09), 2018 (UKCP18) |
| Latest | UKCP18 |
| Website | Met Office |
UK Climate Projections (UKCP) provide probabilistic climate projections for the United Kingdom and surrounding seas, synthesizing observational records and climate model ensembles to inform adaptation and policy. Developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Geological Survey, and the UK Climate Research Programme, the projections underpin national planning, infrastructure design, and sectoral risk assessments. They integrate outputs from international efforts, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and regional modelling initiatives.
Overview
The project produces gridded projections of temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind, and soil moisture across multiple time horizons and emissions pathways. Outputs have supported work by Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, Environment Agency, Scottish Government, and Welsh Government for flood management, agriculture, and health planning. UKCP products are widely cited in reports by Committee on Climate Change, National Infrastructure Commission, and non-governmental organizations such as Friends of the Earth and Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. The framework aligns with international standards from the World Meteorological Organization and draws on global datasets from centers like NOAA and ECMWF.
Development and Methodology
UKCP development combined global climate models, regional climate models, and statistical downscaling to produce high-resolution projections. Core components include ensembles from the Met Office Unified Model, multi-model input from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives, and regional models such as those used in the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects. Methodological innovations incorporated stochastic weather generators and bias-correction methods influenced by work at University of Oxford, University of Exeter, and University of East Anglia. Scenarios followed emissions trajectories derived from integrated assessment models like those used in the Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, linking to policy frameworks referenced by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
Data Products and Outputs
UKCP delivers multiple tiers of data: probabilistic projections for national-scale metrics, regional assessments, and high-resolution (e.g., 2.2 km) transient scenarios for impact modelling. Major products include time-slice climatologies, extreme event statistics, and sea-level rise envelopes incorporating contributions from ice sheets studied by groups at British Antarctic Survey and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Data are packaged for use by planners in formats compatible with tools from Ordnance Survey, hydrological models used by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, and urban planners in local authorities such as Greater London Authority. Ancillary materials include guidance documents co-produced with Public Health England and technical briefings utilized by National Grid and transport agencies like Transport for London.
Applications and Use Cases
Users apply UKCP outputs in adaptation planning, infrastructure design, insurance, and academia. Utilities consult the projections for asset resilience at organizations like Northern Powergrid and Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks, while insurers such as Aviva and Lloyd's of London use them for catastrophe modelling. Urban designers employ UKCP-informed standards in projects for Manchester City Council and Bristol City Council, and conservation bodies including Natural England and RSPB use habitat-climate risk assessments. Academia uses datasets in research at Imperial College London, University of Cambridge, and University of Manchester on climate impacts, while international agencies such as the World Bank reference UKCP methods in adaptation finance guidance.
Limitations and Uncertainty
Projections carry uncertainty from climate sensitivity, internal variability, model structural differences, and emissions pathway choice. Limitations include remaining biases in regional circulation, representation of convective processes investigated at Met Office Hadley Centre and UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, and challenges in projecting compound events studied by the Met Office and research groups at Loughborough University. Sea-level projections incorporate ice-sheet dynamics where substantial uncertainty remains following research by University of Bristol and University of Leeds. Users are advised to consider scenario ranges, make robust decision frameworks as advocated by the Committee on Climate Change, and consult probabilistic outputs when planning for low-probability, high-impact events referenced in reports by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Governance, Accessibility, and Updates
Governance involves partnerships among national research centres, government departments, and advisory bodies including the Met Office Hadley Centre, Natural Environment Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation. Data access is provided through Met Office portals and institutional collaborations with universities and agencies such as the Environment Agency and Ordnance Survey. Major updates have occurred with UKCP09 and UKCP18, with ongoing work to integrate CMIP6 results and higher-resolution ensembles coordinated with international consortia including World Climate Research Programme and Copernicus Programme. Stakeholder engagement processes mirror practices used by Department for Transport consultations and are informed by advisory input from bodies like the National Audit Office on public value and transparency.