UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
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| UK Climate Change Risk Assessment | |
|---|---|
| Name | UK Climate Change Risk Assessment |
| Jurisdiction | United Kingdom |
| Established | 2008 |
| Administered by | Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change |
| Related legislation | Climate Change Act 2008 |
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment provides a statutory appraisal of climate threats and opportunities for the United Kingdom, informing Climate Change Act 2008, guiding the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, supporting Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and interacting with entities such as Scottish Government, Welsh Government, Northern Ireland Executive, Local government in the United Kingdom, and international bodies including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the European Environment Agency.
Overview
The assessment synthesises evidence from research institutions such as Met Office, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, and universities including University of Oxford, University of Cambridge, Imperial College London, University College London, and University of Edinburgh to evaluate risks across sectors like National Health Service (England), Network Rail, Port of London Authority, Environment Agency, and Forestry Commission. It integrates outputs from modelling teams linked to Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Climate Projections, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), and studies commissioned by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and agencies such as Food Standards Agency and Historic England.
Legal and Policy Framework
The legal basis rests on the Climate Change Act 2008 and statutory duties overseen by the Committee on Climate Change, with reporting obligations to Her Majesty's Government, the Scottish Parliament, Senedd Cymru, and the Northern Ireland Assembly. The assessment informs policy instruments such as the National Adaptation Programme (UK), National Planning Policy Framework, Flood and Water Management Act 2010, Environmental Protection Act 1990, and sectoral strategies produced by Department for Transport (United Kingdom), Department of Health and Social Care, Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government, and Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Internationally, it supports commitments under the Paris Agreement, interfaces with the European Climate Change Programme, and aligns with guidance from World Health Organization and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Assessment Process and Methodology
Methodology combines probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and earlier UKCP09, scenario analysis consistent with Representative Concentration Pathways, inputs from HadGEM3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 ensembles, and stakeholder reviews involving Local Enterprise Partnerships, National Farmers' Union, Confederation of British Industry, and Royal Society. Peer review draws on expertise from Royal Society of Edinburgh, Royal Meteorological Society, Institution of Civil Engineers, Royal Academy of Engineering, Academy of Medical Sciences, and academic groups at London School of Economics, University of Manchester, University of Leeds, University of Bristol, and University of Southampton. Guidance on risk assessment techniques references frameworks from International Organization for Standardization, World Bank, and United Nations Environment Programme. Data sources include observations from British Geological Survey, Marine Management Organisation, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, and health records from Public Health England.
Key Risks and Findings
Findings highlight increased flood risk affecting infrastructure managed by Network Rail, Highways England, Port of Dover, and Channel Tunnel stakeholders; heat and mortality impacts relevant to National Health Service (England), Public Health Scotland, and Public Health Wales; biodiversity loss affecting sites overseen by Natural England, Scottish Natural Heritage, and Royal Society for the Protection of Birds; agricultural productivity challenges for members of the National Farmers' Union and supply chains anchored by Tesco plc, Sainsbury's, and Co-operative Group retailers. Other identified risks include coastal erosion threatening assets in English Heritage and Historic Environment Scotland, water scarcity affecting reservoirs managed by Severn Trent, United Utilities, and Thames Water, and risks to energy systems including assets of National Grid plc, EDF Energy, and Centrica plc. Cross-cutting risks reference economic implications for Bank of England scenarios, insurance exposures for Association of British Insurers, and social vulnerability assessed by Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Citizens Advice, and Age UK.
Responses and Adaptation Measures
Recommended responses span nature-based solutions promoted by Natural England, Forestry Commission, and RSPB, engineered measures such as flood defences delivered by Environment Agency and local authorities, heatwave plans coordinated by Public Health England and NHS England, and resilience investments by Network Rail and National Grid plc. Policy tools include integration into National Adaptation Programme (UK), planning measures under the National Planning Policy Framework, funding mechanisms involving European Investment Bank (historically), Green Investment Bank, and domestic instruments administered by UK Infrastructure Bank and Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Research and innovation pathways are linked to programmes at Innovate UK, UK Research and Innovation, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and university consortia.
Stakeholder Engagement and Governance
Governance structures involve statutory reporting to the Committee on Climate Change and delivery coordination among Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, devolved administrations (Scottish Government, Welsh Government, Northern Ireland Executive), local authorities such as Greater London Authority, and sector regulators including Office of Rail and Road, Ofwat, Ofgem, and Civil Aviation Authority. Stakeholder engagement pulls in civil society organisations like Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, The Wildlife Trusts, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, WWF-UK, business groups such as Confederation of British Industry, trade unions like Trades Union Congress, academic partners from University of Exeter, University of Stirling, and funders including National Lottery Heritage Fund.