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| UKCP09 | |
|---|---|
| Name | UK Climate Projections 2009 |
| Acronym | UKCP09 |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Release | 2009 |
| Produced by | Met Office Hadley Centre; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs |
| Type | Probabilistic climate projection |
| Spatial resolution | 25 km regional / 1.5° global |
| Temporal extent | 20th–21st centuries |
| Scenarios | SRES emissions scenarios |
UKCP09
The UK Climate Projections 2009 provided probabilistic, regionalized climate projections for the United Kingdom to inform adaptation planning. Coordinated by the Met Office Hadley Centre and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the project combined global climate models, regional climate models, and statistical techniques to quantify uncertainty and produce maps, time series, and probability distributions. The projections were widely used by agencies such as the Environment Agency, Natural England, and local authorities for long-term decision-making.
UKCP09 delivered climate information for the United Kingdom and surrounding seas for the 21st century, using multiple emissions narratives from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The product included more than one thousand realizations drawn from ensembles produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre, international modelling centres contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and regional downscaling from the Hadley Centre Regional Model. Outputs covered variables such as temperature, precipitation, sea level, and storm surge relevant to bodies like the Environment Agency and utilities such as National Grid plc.
The methodology combined global climate model (GCM) ensembles from centers including the Hadley Centre, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory with regional climate model (RCM) downscaling from the Hadley Centre Regional Model and statistical post-processing. A Bayesian framework incorporated observational constraints from datasets such as those produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre observational archives and the UK Meteorological Office. Probabilistic sampling represented structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainties, while bias correction and spatial interpolation linked gridded climate fields to catchments, cities like London, and infrastructure networks managed by organizations like Scottish Water.
Ensembles spanned multiple SRES pathways (notably A1B, A2, and B1) to reflect alternative emissions trajectories. The model suite included GCMs from institutions such as the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Regional outputs at approximately 25 km resolution were provided alongside global 1.5° fields used in probabilistic scaling. Sea-level components drew on contributions from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report process and observational work by entities including Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the British Antarctic Survey.
UKCP09 projected mean annual temperature increases across the United Kingdom by the late 21st century, with larger warming in summer for continental-influenced regions and elevated warming over urban areas such as Greater London and Manchester. Projections indicated likely increases in winter precipitation for northern and western areas including Scotland and Wales, and decreases in summer precipitation for parts of England and East Anglia. Sea level around UK coasts was projected to rise, informed by contributions from thermal expansion and cryospheric sources such as the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet. Changes in extreme events—heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and storm surge—were quantified with probabilistic return periods to support planning for organizations like the Environment Agency and infrastructure operators such as Network Rail.
Validation used historical hindcasts and observational records from archives like the Met Office Hadley Centre Observations and national networks operated by the UK Met Office. Sources of uncertainty enumerated in UKCP09 included emissions scenario choice (SRES pathways), structural differences among GCMs and RCMs (e.g., parameterizations from the Hadley Centre versus GFDL), and internal climate variability. The Bayesian approach aimed to weight ensemble members against observations, but residual model biases and limits in representing processes such as ice-sheet dynamics (studied by groups at the British Antarctic Survey and University of Cambridge) remained notable uncertainties.
UKCP09 informed national and local adaptation strategies, risk assessments by agencies such as the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sectoral planning in water management by utilities including Scottish Water and energy infrastructure by National Grid plc. It was used in urban planning for authorities like the Greater London Authority and in flood risk guidance for insurers and firms in the City of London financial district. Academic research at institutions such as Imperial College London, University of Oxford, and University of Leeds built on UKCP09 outputs to explore impacts on agriculture, health, and biodiversity.
Reception combined appreciation for the probabilistic approach from stakeholders including Defra policymakers and criticism regarding communication of uncertainties from researchers at universities like University of East Anglia and Oxford. Subsequent development efforts led to updated products and methodological enhancements culminating in successor frameworks produced by the Met Office and collaborators, incorporating new emissions narratives such as the Representative Concentration Pathways used in later IPCC assessments and improved regional modelling techniques developed in partnership with institutions like Basel University and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.