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| U.S. Global Forecast System | |
|---|---|
| Name | U.S. Global Forecast System |
| Acronym | GFS |
| Developed by | National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| Initial release | 1980s |
| Latest release | ongoing |
| Programming language | Fortran, C |
| Operating system | Linux |
| License | Government software |
U.S. Global Forecast System
The U.S. Global Forecast System is a numerical weather prediction model that provides medium‑range and short‑range atmospheric forecasts for the United States, North America, Pacific Ocean, and global climate domains, serving agencies such as the National Weather Service, Federal Aviation Administration, Department of Defense, United States Air Force, and international partners including the World Meteorological Organization, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency, and Environment and Climate Change Canada. The system integrates inputs from observing networks including the Gulfstream V dropsonde programs, the GOES satellite constellation, the COSMIC radio occultation missions, and radiosonde campaigns coordinated with the International Civil Aviation Organization to support forecasts used by entities like the American Red Cross, NOAA National Hurricane Center, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and commercial firms such as The Weather Company and AccuWeather.
The system operates within the operational framework of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, producing deterministic and ensemble outputs that are consumed by the United States Air Force Weather Agency and research programs at institutions including the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and NCAR. Outputs include gridded atmospheric fields, tropical cyclone guidance for the National Hurricane Center, aviation products for the Federal Aviation Administration, and marine forecasts utilized by the United States Coast Guard and National Marine Fisheries Service. The system’s role is comparable to international efforts at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and regional systems like the Met Office model and the Canadian Meteorological Centre.
Development traces to numerical work at the United States Weather Bureau and advances by researchers at National Center for Atmospheric Research and Princeton University during the mid-20th century alongside innovations by figures connected to NOAA and the U.S. Weather Bureau. Major milestones include transitions after collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, integration of satellite data from TIROS and GOES, enhancements following lessons from Hurricane Katrina, and modernization initiatives aligned with directives from the Office of Science and Technology Policy and congressional legislation affecting NOAA funding. Upgrades have been coordinated with research from University of Washington, Colorado State University, Texas A&M University, and international programs like the Global Atmosphere Watch.
The architecture combines dynamical cores, physics parameterizations, and coupling interfaces developed alongside computational efforts at the Department of Energy National Laboratories including Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Core components include the atmospheric model, land surface model influenced by studies at USDA Agricultural Research Service sites, ocean coupling modules interoperable with NOAA Fisheries frameworks, and aerosol schemes informed by research at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the Aerosol Robotic Network. Numerical schemes leverage parallel computing on systems procured through National Science Foundation grants and installed at facilities such as the National Center for Supercomputing Applications and NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
Data assimilation integrates observations from satellite programs like GOES, Aqua, Suomi NPP, and MetOp, in situ networks including Global Telecommunication System reports, buoy arrays maintained by National Data Buoy Center, radiosondes launched via National Weather Service stations, aircraft reports coordinated with International Air Transport Association, and oceanographic inputs from Argo floats and NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer. Assimilation techniques draw on variational methods and ensemble Kalman filter research from institutions like MIT, University of Reading, and ECMWF, and exploit collaborations with European Space Agency and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency missions.
Products include deterministic grids, ensemble spread fields, tropical cyclone track and intensity guidance for the National Hurricane Center, aviation ceiling and visibility forecasts for the Federal Aviation Administration, marine wave forecasts for the United States Coast Guard, hydrologic inputs for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and air quality guidance used by the Environmental Protection Agency and state agencies such as the California Air Resources Board. Private sector users include The Weather Company, AccuWeather, and energy firms like ExxonMobil and NextEra Energy for load forecasting, while academic researchers at Columbia University and Harvard University use outputs for climate attribution and extreme event studies.
Verification metrics are produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction verification suites and compared against international baselines like the ECMWF Reanalysis and JMA operational forecasts, using metrics developed by groups at University of Oklahoma, University of Colorado Boulder, and Imperial College London. Performance assessments drove revisions following events such as Hurricane Sandy and the 2010 Russian heat wave, with targeted improvements in tropical cyclone intensity, convective initiation, and medium-range geopotential height forecasts informed by research from SMHI, BoM, and Met Éireann.
Operational transitions are managed by the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center and coordinated with computing upgrades at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and supercomputing centers funded by the Department of Commerce and National Science Foundation. Recent modernization efforts involved collaborations with NASA, DOE, and academic consortia including the University of Maryland and Rutgers University to incorporate higher resolution grids, advanced cloud microphysics, and coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions informed by experiments such as SPARC and CLIVAR. Continuous development remains aligned with international standards set by the World Meteorological Organization and bilateral agreements with agencies like ECMWF and JMA.