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| The Poll Bludger | |
|---|---|
| Name | The Poll Bludger |
| Type | Blog |
| Language | English |
The Poll Bludger is an Australian political analysis blog known for electoral commentary, seat-by-seat forecasting, and aggregating polling data. It is widely cited across Australian media outlets such as The Australian Financial Review, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Guardian (London), and referenced in academic work at institutions like Australian National University, University of Melbourne, and University of Sydney. The blog sits within a broader ecosystem that includes outlets like Crikey, The Conversation, ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation), and SBS Television.
The Poll Bludger began as an independent project during the era of intensified coverage of federal elections, contemporary with commentary from Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard and following developments such as the 2010 Australian federal election, 2013 Australian federal election, and 2016 Australian federal election. It emerged alongside popular political blogs and sites linked to personalities like Andrew Bolt, Peter van Onselen, Pauline Hanson-era debates, and platforms tied to parties including Liberal Party of Australia and Australian Labor Party. Over time the site intersected with coverage of leaders including Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison, and Anthony Albanese and was cited during events such as the 2019 Australian federal election and the 2022 Australian federal election.
The Poll Bludger publishes seat polling, two-party-preferred estimates, and analysis of by-elections, often referencing ministers, shadow cabinets, and electorates tied to figures such as Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten. Regular features include constituency profiles, swing calculators, and summaries of polls from organizations like Newspoll, YouGov (company), Resolve Strategic, Galaxy Research, and Ipsos (company). The site also comments on policy debates involving portfolios held by politicians such as Marise Payne, Peter Dutton, Penny Wong, and Christopher Pyne and covers state contests in jurisdictions like New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania.
Methodological approaches on the site synthesize primary polling from companies including YouGov (company), Ipsos (company), Newspoll, Galaxy Research, and Resolution Research and integrate electoral commission returns such as data from the Australian Electoral Commission and state bodies like the Victorian Electoral Commission and Electoral Commission of New South Wales. Analyses reference historical results tied to elections such as the 1998 Australian federal election, 2007 Australian federal election, and the 2010 Australian federal election to model swing patterns and incumbency effects around seats held by MPs like Kevin Rudd and John Howard. Statistical techniques incorporate concepts used in academic studies from universities like Monash University and University of Queensland and mirror forecasting work found around events including the Brexit referendum and the 2016 United States presidential election.
The Poll Bludger has influenced public conversation on campaigns involving figures such as Barnaby Joyce, Nick Xenophon, Bob Katter, and Clive Palmer and has been discussed on platforms including Sky News Australia, ABC Radio National, SBS Television, and national newspapers including The Australian. It is frequently cited by commentators such as Laura Tingle, Barrie Cassidy, Insiders panellists, and political journalists at outlets like The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, and Crikey. Academics at Australian National University and think tanks like the Grattan Institute have used its compilations for teaching and research.
Critiques of the site have arisen in relation to interpretation of polling around contentious moments such as leadership spills involving Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, coverage of populist actors such as Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, and predictions in close contests like the 2019 Australian federal election. Commentators from outlets including The Australian and Daily Telegraph have at times challenged its forecasts, and questions have been raised in academic forums at University of Sydney and University of Melbourne about sampling, weighting, and presentation choices similar to those debated after the 2016 United States presidential election and the Brexit referendum.
Key individuals associated with the site have been named in press coverage and on platforms such as Twitter and in interviews with public broadcasters including ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). Contributors have engaged with journalists from The Australian Financial Review, The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, and podcasters who interview figures from Australian politics such as former prime ministers and opposition leaders. The site's commentary has intersected with writings by academics from Australian National University, Monash University, and University of Melbourne.
The Poll Bludger contributed to granular electoral scrutiny alongside outlets like Crikey, The Conversation, and broadcaster analysis on ABC News, shaping coverage of campaigns involving Liberal Party of Australia, Australian Labor Party, and minor party actors including Australian Greens and independents. Its seat-by-seat focus influenced reporting during high-profile contests such as the 2010 Australian federal election and the 2022 Australian federal election, and its data aggregation has been used by academics and commentators at institutions like Australian National University and Grattan Institute to discuss trends in Australian politics.
Category:Australian political websites