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| THORPEX | |
|---|---|
| Name | THORPEX |
| Established | 2003 |
| Parent | World Meteorological Organization |
| Focus | Atmospheric research, forecasting |
| Region | International |
THORPEX
THORPEX was an international research initiative launched to accelerate improvements in the accuracy and societal value of weather forecasts through coordinated programs linking observational campaigns, numerical modeling, and forecast verification. It brought together national agencies, research institutions, and operational centers to tackle challenges in short- to medium-range prediction by integrating field experiments, high-performance computing, and end-user engagement across regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia.
THORPEX organized multinational collaborations among stakeholders including the World Meteorological Organization, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Met Office, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Japan Meteorological Agency, Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), Deutscher Wetterdienst, Météo-France, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Korean Meteorological Administration, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, University of Reading, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of Washington, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Miami, McGill University, University of Oxford, University of Tokyo, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, European Commission, INTERGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CMA (China) and numerous national weather services, research laboratories, and universities in concert with operational forecast centers and emergency management agencies.
THORPEX sought to reduce errors in 1–14 day forecasts, improve ensemble prediction, and translate probabilistic forecasts into actionable risk information by advancing observing strategies, data assimilation, numerical models, and verification methods. The program emphasized partnerships among institutions such as World Weather Research Programme, Global Atmosphere Watch, Group on Earth Observations, Committee on Earth Observation Satellites, European Space Agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, NOAA National Weather Service, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Instituto Nacional de Meteorología y Geofísica, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, National Observatory of Athens, Met Éireann, Irish Marine Institute, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Helsinki University, ETH Zurich, Columbia University, and University of Reading.
THORPEX governance combined steering committees, working groups, and regional panels drawing members from WMO Regional Associations, national agencies like NOAA, ECMWF, and academic consortia including COSMIC-2, THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble partners, and collaborations with satellite agencies such as ESA and JAXA. Funding and scientific leadership came from entities such as NSF, NASA, European Commission Framework Programmes, UK Research and Innovation, DFG (German Research Foundation), CNES, CMA, and national ministries of science, which coordinated projects with operational centers including Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, and regional forecasting centers.
THORPEX implemented targeted programs and field campaigns like the Global Interactive Forecasting Experiment, regional initiatives in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Asian monsoon regions, and Intensive Observing Periods involving aircraft, radiosondes, satellite overpasses, and ocean profiling from platforms linked to projects such as ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement), OEI (Ocean Observing Initiative), CALIPSO, A-Train, COSMIC, GPSRO, TRMM, GPM, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program collaborations, and field campaigns with participants from NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Naval Research Laboratory, United States Air Force Weather Agency, French Armed Forces, German Aerospace Center, Australian CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, and university research vessels.
THORPEX advanced data assimilation methods including 4D-Var, Ensemble Kalman Filter, hybrid schemes, and adaptive observing guided by targeted observation experiments coordinated with ECMWF, Met Office, NOAA GFS, GMAO (Goddard), UK Met Office Unified Model, IFS (Integrated Forecasting System), WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model), ICON model, HARMONIE-AROME, and regional rapid-update cycling systems. Improvements drew on assimilation of data from satellites such as NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, Metop series, Suomi NPP, Sentinel series, GOES series, and observing networks like AMSU, Microwave Sounders, Doppler radar networks, radiosonde networks, buoy arrays, Argo, TAO/TRITON, and HF radar deployments coordinated with research centers including NCAR, ECMWF, Met Office, JMA, and university modeling groups.
THORPEX led to demonstrable improvements in ensemble spread reduction, forecast skill for high-impact events, and probabilistic products used by operational centers including NOAA National Weather Service, ECMWF, Met Office, JMA, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Météo-France, and national hydrometeorological services. Outcomes influenced practices at satellite agencies such as ESA and NASA, enhanced verification methods adopted by WMO panels, supported emergency response from organizations like FEMA, European Civil Protection Mechanism, Red Cross, and informed policy at European Commission and national ministries. Scientific advances were disseminated through conferences including American Meteorological Society meetings, European Geosciences Union assemblies, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics events, and publications from institutions such as NCAR, ECMWF, Met Office, and leading universities.
Following its planned conclusion, THORPEX influenced successor initiatives and frameworks including the World Weather Research Programme projects, the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FCET) concepts within WMO, enhanced international programs for targetted observation such as YOTC (Year of Tropical Convection), SERA (Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project), improvements in WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting System, and links to climate prediction efforts such as CMIP activities. Technologies and collaborations spawned coordinated campaigns under World Climate Research Programme, expanded assimilation and ensemble efforts at ECMWF and NOAA, and sustained partnerships among universities, national centers, and agencies including NASA, ESA, JAXA, NSF, European Commission, DFG, NIWA, and others, preserving THORPEX’s emphasis on targeted observations, probabilistic forecasting, and societal impact.