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| SeaRise | |
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| Name | SeaRise |
SeaRise is a term describing the persistent increase in global mean sea level driven by climatic, cryospheric, and oceanographic changes. It synthesizes observations from satellite altimetry, tide gauges, and paleoclimate proxies and informs risk assessments for coastal cities, island nations, and infrastructure. Researchers across institutions integrate data from field campaigns, climate models, and policy frameworks to quantify SeaRise and guide responses.
SeaRise is assessed using measurements from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, Jason-3, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, and historical records from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, providing context alongside reconstructions such as the Holocene climatic optimum and events like the Last Glacial Maximum. Analyses are performed at organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, European Space Agency, and British Antarctic Survey. Major synthesis reports from institutions such as the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report frame SeaRise in relation to milestones like Paris Agreement and observational programs like Global Sea Level Observing System.
Primary drivers include thermal expansion observed in Argo float data, and mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic ice sheet, and mountain glaciers such as those in the Himalayas, Andes, and Alps. Dynamic contributions arise from changing currents like the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio Current, and alterations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections. Processes such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing, modeled in studies referencing Pine Island Glacier, Thwaites Glacier, and Jakobshavn Glacier, interact with forcing from radiative forcing scenarios represented by Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Regional crustal movements associated with events recorded by Global Positioning System networks and post-glacial isostatic adjustment traced since the Younger Dryas also modulate local SeaRise.
Instrumental records from the 19th century tide gauges, the 20th century satellite era, and paleoproxies such as coral cores from Great Barrier Reef and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay indicate multiphase SeaRise patterns, including rapid pulses during meltwater events like Meltwater Pulse 1A. Projections in scenarios evaluated by the IPCC span ranges informed by models from centers like Met Office Hadley Centre, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. High-end projections consider instability mechanisms informed by work at Bristol University, Columbia University, and University of Cambridge ice-sheet groups, with implications comparable to past episodes such as the Pliocene warm period.
SeaRise threatens urban centers such as New York City, Tokyo, Mumbai, Shanghai, Jakarta, and Dhaka and endangers island states including Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Marshall Islands. Effects include increased frequency of coastal flooding experienced in events like Hurricane Sandy, Typhoon Haiyan, and Cyclone Nargis, saltwater intrusion documented in Everglades National Park and Ganges Delta, and ecosystem shifts affecting Mangrove habitats, Coral reef bleaching in places like the Great Barrier Reef, and fisheries in the North Sea. Critical infrastructure such as Panama Canal, Port of Rotterdam, Los Angeles International Airport, and Suez Canal face operational risks, while cultural heritage sites like Venice, Saint Augustine, and Machu Picchu experience increased hazard exposure.
Local SeaRise is influenced by factors including gravitational fingerprinting tied to mass loss from regions like Greenland and West Antarctica, ocean dynamic changes near currents such as the North Atlantic Current, and vertical land motion from processes like subsidence in deltas including the Nile Delta, Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and Mississippi River Delta. Pacific atolls in Polynesia and Micronesia show different vulnerability patterns than the storm-protected coasts of Scandinavia or the uplifted shores around Norway due to Glacial isostatic adjustment and tectonics along zones such as the Ring of Fire.
Adaptation strategies draw from case studies like The Netherlands’s Delta Works, New Orleans coastal protection projects post-Hurricane Katrina, and urban resilience initiatives in Singapore and Copenhagen. Approaches include hard engineering (seawalls, surge barriers), nature-based solutions (mangrove restoration, salt marshes), and managed retreat documented in community plans in Alaska, Australia, and Philippines. Mitigation links to international frameworks such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, emissions pathways managed under Kyoto Protocol legacies, and low-carbon transitions championed by organizations like the International Energy Agency and initiatives including the Green Climate Fund.
SeaRise governance involves multilevel actors: city agencies like New York City Office of Resilience, national bodies such as the United States Army Corps of Engineers, regional institutions like the European Commission, and multilateral organizations including the United Nations, World Bank, and International Maritime Organization. Legal instruments addressing displacement and sovereignty include deliberations under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and human mobility discussions within UNHCR and International Organization for Migration forums. Finance mechanisms leverage instruments from World Bank Climate Investment Funds, insurance schemes like Reinsurance Group of America-style markets, and innovative tools explored by the Green Climate Fund and Global Environment Facility.