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| SLOSH | |
|---|---|
| Name | SLOSH |
| Developer | National Weather Service / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| Initial release | 1988 |
| Latest release | 2017 |
| Programming languages | FORTRAN |
| Platforms | Unix, Windows |
| License | Public domain (United States) |
SLOSH SLOSH is a numerical model used to estimate storm surge heights, extents, and arrival times for coastal storms. It informs evacuation planning, hazard mapping, and operational forecasting by combining wind, pressure, and bathymetric data to simulate water level perturbations; agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Hurricane Center, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers routinely use outputs in coordination with local authorities like Florida Division of Emergency Management and Louisiana Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.
SLOSH, developed by National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, produces surge predictions on rectilinear grids covering basins such as the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes. The model ingests synthetic and observed cyclone tracks from sources like the National Hurricane Center and historical storms such as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Sandy (2012), and Hurricane Andrew (1992) to compute maximum envelope of water (MEOW) and maximum of maxima (MOM) products. Outputs support operational products from the Weather Prediction Center and situational awareness systems employed by Coast Guard units and municipal emergency managers in cities like New Orleans, Louisiana, Miami, Florida, and Tampa, Florida.
SLOSH solves the depth-averaged, nonlinear shallow water equations using finite-difference schemes originally implemented in FORTRAN on platforms including Unix and Windows. Inputs include cyclone track, central pressure deficit, radius of maximum winds, forward speed, and wind field asymmetry derived from parametric models comparable to those used in Holland model studies and by analysts at the National Hurricane Center. Bathymetry and topography grids come from sources such as the National Geophysical Data Center and local surveys by the U.S. Geological Survey. For operational ensembles, SLOSH runs multiple perturbed tracks—techniques reminiscent of ensemble approaches used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—to generate probabilistic surge envelopes.
SLOSH outputs underpin floodplain delineations used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in hazard mitigation planning and by the National Flood Insurance Program for risk assessment. Emergency operations centers in jurisdictions like Harris County, Texas, Broward County, Florida, and Jefferson Parish, Louisiana use surge maps derived from SLOSH for evacuation zone delineation and sheltering decisions. Engineers at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers employ SLOSH scenarios when planning coastal defenses alongside storm-tide analyses from projects such as the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet studies. Academic groups at institutions like Louisiana State University and University of Miami integrate SLOSH outputs into multidisciplinary research with collaborators from NOAA and National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Validation efforts compare SLOSH surge estimates against observations from tide gauges operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and high-water marks documented after storms like Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Gustav (2008), and Hurricane Irma (2017). Comparative studies with hydrodynamic models used by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and research models at Scripps Institution of Oceanography evaluate biases related to grid resolution, frictional parameterizations, and representation of coastline geometry. Operational verification exercises coordinated with National Hurricane Center advisories assess timing and magnitude errors relative to measured storm tides recorded by NOAA National Weather Service stations and post-event surveys by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Critiques highlight SLOSH’s simplified physics: depth-averaged equations omit vertical stratification processes emphasized in studies at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and limit representation of wave setup addressed in coastal engineering work at Delft University of Technology. Grid resolution constraints can misrepresent complex coastal features in deltas like the Mississippi River Delta or estuaries such as the Chesapeake Bay, a limitation noted by researchers at University of Maryland and Tulane University. The model’s parametric wind fields do not capture mesoscale convective structures observed in storms like Hurricane Michael (2018), prompting integration with higher-resolution atmospheric models used at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
SLOSH’s lineage traces to storm-surge modeling advances in the late 20th century, with early implementations in the 1970s and formal operational adoption by National Weather Service in 1988. Subsequent modernization incorporated improved bathymetric datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and parallel processing developments influenced by computational strategies at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Major updates aligned with lessons from Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Sandy (2012), leading to expanded basins and ensemble-based MEOW/MOM products distributed to agencies such as FEMA and state emergency managers.
Related surge and coupled models include ADCIRC used by researchers at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CMS-Wave developed by U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, and storm-tide systems integrated in operational suites at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Visualization and GIS integration occur via platforms like ArcGIS and tools developed by NOAA Digital Coast, while verification and post-processing workflows link with data repositories at the National Centers for Environmental Information and collaborative projects with institutions such as University of Florida.
Category:Hydrodynamic models