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| SCAR Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (AnT-ERA) | |
|---|---|
| Name | SCAR Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (AnT-ERA) |
| Formation | 2013 |
| Type | Scientific Research Programme |
| Headquarters | Antarctic Treaty System |
| Leader title | Co-chairs |
| Parent organization | Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research |
SCAR Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (AnT-ERA) is an international scientific research programme under the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research that addressed abrupt change and tipping points in Antarctica's biota, from microbes to megafauna, integrating physical, chemical, and biological perspectives. Launched with support from national Antarctic programmes and coordinated with bodies such as the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs and the International Union for Conservation of Nature, AnT-ERA synthesized field observations, experimental manipulations, and modelling to inform policy and conservation under the Antarctic Treaty System and the Convention on Biological Diversity.
AnT-ERA was initiated to identify thresholds where environmental change triggers non-linear shifts in Antarctic ecosystems, linking work by researchers affiliated with institutions like the British Antarctic Survey, National Science Foundation (United States), Australian Antarctic Division, University of Cambridge, and Scott Polar Research Institute. The programme convened workshops supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and collaborated with projects from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources to place empirical thresholds in a governance context.
Primary objectives included quantifying resilience and adaptive capacity of Antarctic terrestrial and marine communities, detecting regime shifts relevant to stakeholders such as the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, and projecting impacts under scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organization. Key research questions asked where critical thresholds lie for organisms like Antarctic krill, Emperor penguin, Adélie penguin, and benthic invertebrates, how physical drivers from Antarctic Peninsula warming to sea‑ice loss alter ecosystem state, and what scales of disturbance (local research stations, Southern Ocean fisheries, invasive species introductions via Antarctic tourism) push systems past tipping points.
AnT-ERA used interdisciplinary methods combining long-term time-series from observatories such as the Rothera Research Station, experimental manipulations at sites like McMurdo Station, and palaeoecological proxies from cores collected by teams associated with the British Antarctic Survey and the United States Antarctic Program. Modelling approaches included coupled biophysical models used by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, agent-based models inspired by work from University of California, Santa Cruz, and statistical threshold detection methods developed in collaboration with groups at the University of Bristol and Stanford University. Data sources included satellite datasets from European Space Agency, in situ oceanographic measurements from ROV campaigns, genetic and genomic datasets produced by laboratories at Moss Landing Marine Laboratories and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and fisheries catch records from the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources.
AnT-ERA reported thresholds where modest climatic shifts produce disproportionate ecosystem responses, including temperature and sea-ice retreat levels linked to local collapses of Adélie penguin colonies, declines in Antarctic krill recruitment correlated with Southern Ocean sea-ice season shortening, and substrate-altered community reassembly on rocky shores following warming comparable to rates observed near the Antarctic Peninsula. The programme highlighted potential tipping points for ice‑dependent species such as the Emperor penguin under scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and documented invasive establishment risks tied to increased Antarctic tourism and ship traffic regulated by the International Maritime Organization. Cross-system synthesis identified cascading effects between pelagic productivity shifts affecting toothed whales and krill-dependent predators, mediated by changes in ocean stratification reported by teams at Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory.
Findings emphasized limited buffering capacity for many Antarctic communities, with resilience determined by life-history traits identified in species-level studies from groups at the University of Otago and University of Canterbury. The work informed assessments of ecological stability relevant to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources and contributed to risk evaluations used by national programmes including the Australian Antarctic Division and National Science Foundation (United States). AnT-ERA underscored that adaptation potential—whether via phenotypic plasticity documented in laboratory studies at the University of Alaska Fairbanks or via range shifts constrained by physical barriers like the Southern Ocean—is uneven across taxa.
AnT-ERA outputs were used to advise the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting and to influence marine protected area planning under Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources frameworks, supporting proposals for representative networks informed by threshold maps developed with partners at the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Results guided biosecurity measures coordinated by the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs and provided evidence for adaptive management approaches advocated in reports to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The programme recommended expanding integrated observing networks linking stations such as Rothera Research Station and McMurdo Station with autonomous platforms from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and satellite missions by European Space Agency, enhancing genomic baselines developed at institutions like Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, and refining coupled models used at Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory and Stanford University to project compound stressors. Priorities included standardized protocols for threshold detection aligning with the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research's recommendations, coordinated international monitoring under the Antarctic Treaty System, and targeted experiments to resolve mechanistic links between climate drivers and biological tipping points for taxa such as Adélie penguin, Emperor penguin, and Antarctic krill.
Category:Antarctic research programs