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| Regional Climate Outlook Forums | |
|---|---|
| Name | Regional Climate Outlook Forums |
| Formation | 1990s |
| Headquarters | Various regional centers |
| Region served | Africa, Asia, Caribbean, Pacific, Americas |
| Parent organization | World Meteorological Organization |
Regional Climate Outlook Forums Regional Climate Outlook Forums are periodic, stakeholder-driven platforms that produce consensus seasonal climate outlooks and foster links among climate science World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Development Programme, Food and Agriculture Organization, International Fund for Agricultural Development, and regional bodies such as the African Union, Economic Community of West African States, Southern African Development Community, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and the Caribbean Community. They convene experts from national meteorological services, regional climate centers, research institutes, and users from sectors represented by institutions like International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, World Food Programme, International Organization for Migration, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and Global Framework for Climate Services.
Regional Climate Outlook Forums synthesize research from centers including the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, UK Met Office Hadley Centre, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and regional entities such as the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, South African Weather Service, and the Pacific Community. They translate model outputs into stakeholder-relevant products for organizations like World Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The forums trace origins to initiatives by World Meteorological Organization and International Research Institute for Climate and Society in the 1990s, responding to early warnings from events like the 1997–1998 El Niño event and the 1991–1992 El Niño event. Early hosts included the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Cape Town, University of Reading, and collaborations with African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development. Donor and partner engagement has involved United Kingdom Department for International Development, United States Agency for International Development, European Commission, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, and philanthropic partners such as the Rockefeller Foundation.
Forums bring together representatives from national meteorological and hydrological services including Kenya Meteorological Department, Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Meteorological Service of Canada, Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), and Météo-France. Research participation includes Columbia University, University of Oxford, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Copenhagen University, and National Centre for Atmospheric Science. Users and decision-makers attend from Ministry of Agriculture (Ethiopia), Ministry of Water Resources (Sudan), Department of Disaster Management (Philippines), United States Agency for International Development, Save the Children, Oxfam International, CARE International, Mercy Corps, African Risk Capacity, and Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency.
Methodologies integrate outputs from dynamical models such as those at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, UK Met Office, and statistical systems developed at International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Climate Prediction Center (NOAA). Products include probabilistic seasonal precipitation outlooks, temperature maps, onset and cessation guidance, and sector-specific advisories co-developed with Food and Agriculture Organization, World Health Organization, International Water Management Institute, International Livestock Research Institute, and CGIAR centers like CIMMYT and ICRISAT. Forecast communication uses training modules from Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, visualization templates inspired by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, and peer-review processes involving Royal Society and national academies.
Regional implementations occur through hubs such as the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the Southern African Development Community Climate Services Centre, the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, the Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC), and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. Country-level uptake has been documented in Ethiopia, Kenya, Bangladesh, Philippines, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia. Partnerships with regional economic communities like the Economic Community of West African States and East African Community support integration with sector ministries and humanitarian partners such as United Nations Children's Fund.
Applications span agriculture, water resource management, disaster risk reduction, health, and energy. For agriculture, advisories inform planting calendars used by International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), International Rice Research Institute, and national extension services in India, Pakistan, and Nepal. Water agencies like Tirana Water Authority-type institutions and hydroelectric operators including Eskom adapt reservoir operations. Health programs at Pan American Health Organization and Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention use outlooks for vector-borne disease preparedness. Humanitarian responses by World Food Programme and UNHCR incorporate outlook information into contingency planning and anticipatory action frameworks developed with Start Network.
Challenges include communicating probabilistic information to users represented by community-based organizations and ministries such as Ministry of Agriculture (Mozambique) and Ministry of Health (Haiti), addressing model uncertainty highlighted by researchers at National Center for Atmospheric Research and Met Office Hadley Centre, and ensuring sustained funding from donors like Global Environment Facility and multilateral banks. Criticisms have involved equity of participation raised by Small Island Developing States delegates, relevance to indigenous communities documented by scholars from University of the South Pacific and University of the West Indies, and operationalization difficulties noted by International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and CARE International.
Category:Climate