PRIMAVERA

PRIMAVERA
Name	PRIMAVERA
Type	Research programme
Established	2016
Status	Completed / Ongoing

PRIMAVERA PRIMAVERA is a major climate modelling initiative that coordinated high-resolution coupled model experiments across international research centres to improve projections of climate change, European Union policy support, and assessment reports such as those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It brought together national laboratories, academic institutions, and operational centres to run coordinated experiments for comparison with observations from projects like Copernicus Programme and datasets from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The project influenced assessments by the World Meteorological Organization, advisory panels in the European Commission, and major journals including Nature Climate Change and Geophysical Research Letters.

Overview

PRIMAVERA was conceived to advance the fidelity of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models developed at centres such as Met Office, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and ECMWF for application in assessments by IPCC and policymaking in bodies like the European Parliament. The initiative focused on model resolution, systematic evaluation against reanalyses from ERA5, and emergent constraints drawn from studies in Journal of Climate and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Participating organisations included the University of Reading, ETH Zurich, University of Oxford, University of Exeter, CNR, CSIC, CNRS, INRAE, KNMI, IMAU, MPI-M, Met office Hadley Centre, and national institutes such as Met Éireann and DWD.

Objectives and Scope

PRIMAVERA aimed to assess whether increasing horizontal and vertical resolution in coupled models improves simulation of phenomena including the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and extreme events relevant to European Union sectors like agriculture and infrastructure. Objectives included benchmarking against observational programs such as AR5 contributors, comparison with satellite missions like Sentinel-3, and informing projections used by the European Environment Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working groups. The scope covered atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, and biogeochemical components developed at centres including Met Office, MPI-M, CERFACS, CNRM, Météo-France, INGV, SMHI, and BSC.

Methodology and Infrastructure

PRIMAVERA coordinated experiments specified in protocols influenced by prior efforts such as CMIP5 and CMIP6, with high-resolution coupled simulations run on supercomputers at ARCHER, JASMIN, PRACE centres, CINECA, Météo-France TGCC, and ECMWF computing facilities. Methodology included standardised initialisation, ensemble design, and diagnostics drawing on tools from ESGF, ESMValTool, and community packages used by Met Office and NCAR. Observational evaluation used datasets from ERA-Interim, ERA5, HadISST, NOAA OISST, AVHRR, and in situ networks like Argo and DRIFT, while statistical methods referenced studies in Journal of Climate and Geophysical Research Letters. Codebases and parameterisations originated from development groups at MPI-M, UK Met Office, EC-EARTH consortium, CNRM-CERFACS, GFDL, and NOAA GFDL collaborations.

Key Findings and Results

PRIMAVERA reported that increased atmospheric resolution improved representation of storm tracks, blocking events, and precipitation extremes with comparisons to datasets from E-OBS, GPCC, and CPC, while higher ocean resolution enhanced simulation of mesoscale eddies and the Gulf Stream path consistent with observations from Argo and OSCAR. Results influenced attribution studies similar to those by World Weather Attribution and regional assessment methods used by Met Office Hadley Centre and KNMI. Publications in Nature, Science Advances, Journal of Climate, and Climate Dynamics documented improved fidelity for phenomena including the North Atlantic Current, Mediterranean climate, and Arctic sea ice seasonal cycles. The ensemble archives were ingested into the Earth System Grid Federation for use by researchers at Imperial College London, Columbia University, Princeton University, and national meteorological services.

Collaborations and Funding

PRIMAVERA was funded through instruments including the Horizon 2020 framework and contributions from national funding agencies such as UKRI, CNRS, DFG, NSFC, CSIC, and regional programmes managed by European Commission directorates. Collaborators included research centres like Cerfacs, BCCZM, BSC, SMHI, DMI, IMAU, UCL, LSCE, and operational agencies like ECMWF, Met Office, and Météo-France. Partnerships extended to international projects such as CMIP panels, Copernicus Climate Change Service, and infrastructure initiatives like PRACE and JASMIN, with governance models referencing coordination practices from IPCC and WCRP.

Impacts and Applications

Outputs from PRIMAVERA informed regional climate services used by European Commission policy units, European Environment Agency, and national adaptation planning in member states including France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and United Kingdom. The project supported downstream applications in sectors linked to European Space Agency programmes, coastal management used by agencies like Port of Rotterdam Authority, energy system modelling teams at ENTSO-E and RTE, and agricultural risk assessments performed by JRC and university groups. Data and methods influenced subsequent model development at Met Office, MPI-M, CNRM-CERFACS, GFDL, and informed contributions to IPCC AR6 and regional climate atlases produced by Copernicus and national meteorological services.

Category:Climate modelling projects