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| Online polling in the United Kingdom | |
|---|---|
| Name | Online polling in the United Kingdom |
| Established | Late 1990s |
| Jurisdiction | United Kingdom |
Online polling in the United Kingdom is the collection, analysis, and publication of public opinion data using internet-based techniques across the United Kingdom. It has evolved alongside developments in BBC News, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, Sky News, and ITV News, and it intersects with institutions such as the Electoral Commission, Office for National Statistics, University of Oxford, and London School of Economics. Online polling informs reporting by organizations including YouGov, Ipsos MORI, Survation, YouGov-Cambridge, and Kantar Public.
Online polling roots trace to early web experiments by academic institutions such as University of Oxford and London School of Economics and to commercial projects by ICM Research and Gallup. During the 1997 United Kingdom general election, 1997 and 2001 United Kingdom general election, 2001, polling remained dominated by telephone firms such as Ipsos MORI and NOP Research while online methods matured at outlets like The Guardian and BBC News Online. The 2010 United Kingdom general election, 2010 and 2015 United Kingdom general election, 2015 accelerated uptake as firms including YouGov and Survation scaled panels; high-profile discrepancies around the 2015 result prompted methodological debates involving Electoral Commission inquiries and academic analyses at University College London and University of Manchester.
Online polling employs panels, river sampling, social media scraping, and interactive surveys provided by companies such as YouGov, Google, Facebook, Twitter, and SurveyMonkey. Panels maintained by YouGov, Kantar, Savanta, and Ipsos MORI use recruitment via partner sites like The Guardian, Daily Mail, The Sun, and BBC News and weighting against benchmarks from Office for National Statistics and British Election Study. Techniques include quota sampling, propensity score matching developed in collaboration with researchers at University of Oxford and Stanford University, and model-based estimates influenced by approaches from PredictWise and FiveThirtyEight. Data sources now integrate online behaviour from platforms such as YouTube, Instagram, and Reddit alongside browser-based panels.
Major commercial providers include YouGov, Ipsos MORI, Kantar Public, Savanta, Survation, Opinium, and BMG Research. Media platforms hosting polls feature BBC News, The Guardian, The Times, Daily Mail, The Telegraph, Sky News, ITV News, and Channel 4 News. Academic and non-profit projects include the British Election Study, the University of Oxford YouGov Centre for Public Opinion, and research groups at London School of Economics and King's College London. Technology platforms and vendors include Qualtrics, SurveyMonkey, Google Surveys, and analytics partners such as SAS Institute and Nielsen.
Critiques of online polling focus on sample bias, non-response, misreporting, and weighting errors highlighted after events like the 2015 United Kingdom general election, 2015 and the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016. Academics at University College London, University of Oxford, and University of Manchester have published reanalyses questioning predictive validity compared with traditional telephone polls by firms such as Ipsos MORI and Gallup. Social scientists reference measurement challenges raised in studies associated with British Election Study and statistical frameworks from Royal Statistical Society. Critics also cite influence from Cambridge Analytica controversies and platform-driven distortions linked to Facebook and Twitter. Defenders point to post-stratification, multi-mode hybrids used by Kantar and YouGov-Cambridge, and improved calibration against Office for National Statistics datasets.
Regulation touches on data protection, broadcasting rules, and electoral law involving institutions such as the Information Commissioner's Office, the Electoral Commission, and Ofcom. The Data Protection Act 2018 and the UK General Data Protection Regulation govern handling of personal data by pollsters including YouGov and Kantar. Broadcast and publication standards enforced by Ofcom affect presentation by BBC News, Sky News, and commercial broadcasters during campaign periods such as the United Kingdom general election, 2019 and referendums like the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016. Legal issues around microtargeting and platform data use were amplified by investigations referencing Cambridge Analytica and enquiries led by committees of the House of Commons and House of Lords.
Online polls by YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation shape narratives during contests like the United Kingdom general election, 2017, United Kingdom general election, 2019, and devolved elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Parliament, and Northern Ireland Assembly. Polls feed coverage in outlets such as BBC News, The Guardian, The Times, Sky News, and The Daily Telegraph and inform campaign strategy used by parties including the Conservative Party (UK), Labour Party (UK), Liberal Democrats (UK), Scottish National Party, and Plaid Cymru. Scholarly work at London School of Economics and University of Oxford examines effects on voter mobilisation, tactical voting debates involving figures like Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn, and longitudinal opinion trends tracked by the British Election Study and National Centre for Social Research.
Notable episodes include YouGov models for the 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017 and 2019 United Kingdom general election, 2019, Survation's polling during the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016 campaign, and Ipsos MORI analyses of voting intention around the 2015 United Kingdom general election, 2015. Case studies by academics at University College London, University of Manchester, and University of Cambridge dissect post-2015 errors, while industry responses by YouGov, Kantar, and Savanta document methodological changes. High-profile investigations into data practices referenced Cambridge Analytica and parliamentary committees chaired by members of the House of Commons Culture, Media and Sport Committee.
Category:Polling in the United Kingdom