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| OFCE | |
|---|---|
| Name | Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques |
| Abbreviation | OFCE |
| Formation | 1981 |
| Type | Research institute |
| Headquarters | Paris |
| Leader title | Director |
| Parent organization | Sciences Po |
OFCE
The Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques is a Paris-based research institute tied to Sciences Po that produces applied analysis on macroeconomic trends, public finance, labor markets, and international trade. Founded in 1981 during a period marked by shifts associated with the European Monetary System, Reaganomics, and Thatcherism, the institute has provided forecasting, modelling, and policy evaluation for French and European decision-makers, interacting with institutions such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Commission. Its output is cited by media outlets including Le Monde, Financial Times, and The Economist, and by legislative bodies such as the Assemblée nationale and the Senate (France).
The institute emerged in the early 1980s amid debates over fiscal policy following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, during transformations associated with the European Community and the establishment of the Single European Act. Early contributions engaged with debates driven by economists influenced by the work of Keynes, Friedrich Hayek, and Milton Friedman, while addressing crises like the 1980s recession and the 1992–93 European exchange rate mechanism crisis. Over subsequent decades OFCE responded to episodes including the Maastricht Treaty negotiations, the 2008 financial crisis, the Greek government-debt crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in France, expanding methods and partnerships with actors such as the Banque de France and the European Central Bank.
The institute aims to inform public debate and policy choices by producing independent economic analysis for stakeholders including legislatures, ministries like the Ministry of the Economy and Finance (France), social partners such as Confédération Générale du Travail, and international organizations like the World Bank. It seeks to improve evidence used by institutions including Conseil d'État, Cour des comptes (France), House of Commons, and regulatory agencies by offering forecasts, counterfactuals, and evaluations related to fiscal rules such as the Stability and Growth Pact and reforms comparable to Labour law reforms in France.
Embedded within Sciences Po, the institute organizes activities across research units, forecasting teams, communications, and administrative services, collaborating with universities such as Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and research centers like CNRS and INSEE. Governance includes a board drawing members from bodies such as European Parliament committees, think tanks like Bruegel, and professional organizations including the Institute of Chartered Accountants. Directors and senior researchers have come from networks associated with Université Paris Dauphine, École Polytechnique, and international centers like National Bureau of Economic Research.
The institute publishes working papers, policy briefs, and journals addressing macroeconomic forecasting, public finance, employment, social protection, and sectoral analysis on industries such as automotive and energy, engaging with topics tied to Paris Agreement commitments and the European Green Deal. Major outputs include regular macroeconomic forecasts used alongside analyses from OECD Economic Outlook, IMF World Economic Outlook, and national statistical reports from INSEE. Publications engage with reforms linked to legislative initiatives such as pension reforms debated in the Assemblée nationale and tax policies related to directives from the European Council. It also issues studies on trade issues connected to events like Brexit and bilateral negotiations with partners such as Germany, Italy, and Spain.
Analytical methods combine structural macroeconomic models, microsimulation techniques, and input-output frameworks calibrated with datasets from agencies such as INSEE, Eurostat, the World Bank, and central banks including the Banque de France and the Deutsche Bundesbank. Models draw on traditions represented by contributors to the General Equilibrium literature and empirical approaches used in publications from Journal of Political Economy and Quarterly Journal of Economics. Scenario analysis covers shocks akin to those studied in the context of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in France, and stress-testing exercises coordinate with practices from the European Banking Authority.
Analyses have informed parliamentary debates in the Assemblée nationale and budgetary reviews by the Cour des comptes (France), and they feature in commentary by media outlets including France Télévisions and BFMTV. The institute’s forecasts and policy evaluations are used by trade unions such as Confédération Française Démocratique du Travail and employer organizations like Medef when negotiating over reforms involving labour codes and social protection tied to initiatives such as the European Pillar of Social Rights. Internationally, its work feeds into discussions at venues like the G20 and research exchanges with Brookings Institution and CEPR.
Researchers and directors have included economists linked to institutions such as Sciences Po, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, and international networks like National Bureau of Economic Research and IZA Institute of Labor Economics. Collaborative projects have involved partnerships with OECD, European Commission directorates, and think tanks including Bruegel and Institut Montaigne. The institute convenes conferences attracting participants from bodies such as the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, Banque de France, and academic journals like Economic Policy.
Category:Research institutes in France