Nuclear Posture Review (2018)

Nuclear Posture Review (2018)
Name	Nuclear Posture Review (2018)
Date	2018
Author	United States Department of Defense
Jurisdiction	United States

Nuclear Posture Review (2018) The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is a policy document produced by the United States Department of Defense during the administration of Donald Trump that reassessed United States nuclear doctrine in response to evolving strategic challenges from states such as Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Islamic Republic of Iran. The NPR influenced decisions by institutions including the United States Navy, United States Air Force, and United States Army and intersected with treaties like the New START and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty debates. It shaped procurement programs with stakeholders such as Congress of the United States and contractors like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing.

Background and purpose

The review was commissioned by Secretary of Defense James Mattis and produced within the broader national security framework of the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, responding to strategic competition highlighted by incidents such as the Annexation of Crimea and missile programs exemplified by Hwasong-14 and DF-21D testing. It sought to update guidance originating from previous assessments, including the Nuclear Posture Review (2010), and to align with policy positions articulated by President Donald Trump, while coordinating with the Department of State and the National Security Council (United States). The NPR aimed to provide direction on deterrence, assurance, and how the United States Strategic Command would posture forces alongside allies such as NATO, Japan, and Republic of Korea.

Key findings and policy changes

The NPR concluded that strategic competition had returned to the forefront, identifying a more assertive Russian Federation nuclear modernization and the rapid buildup of People's Republic of China nuclear and conventional capabilities. It declared that deterrence requires an updated triad—sea-based Ohio-class submarine, air-launched B61 bomb modernization, and land-based Minuteman III replacement—and added emphasis on options for limited nuclear employment. The review recommended development of a low-yield warhead for the Trident II (D5) missile and the creation of a new sea-launched cruise missile, a posture shift that engaged members of the United States Senate Armed Services Committee and organizations like the Union of Concerned Scientists and Federation of American Scientists.

Nuclear force posture and capabilities

The NPR reaffirmed the three-legged nuclear triad centered on Columbia-class submarine replacement programs, a ground-based strategic deterrent often referred to as the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, and the B-21 Raider bomber program managed by Northrop Grumman. It prioritized modernization of warheads managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration and production at facilities such as the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and the Pantex Plant. The review supported procurement of new delivery systems, including a low-yield warhead variant on the Ohio Replacement (OR) SSBN's Trident II missiles and a new sea-launched cruise missile concept debated in hearings with witnesses from Defense Intelligence Agency and Arms Control Association panels.

Extended deterrence and alliances

The NPR emphasized assurance of allies through extended deterrence commitments to partners like NATO, Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia, and Saudi Arabia while referencing joint activities such as Atlantic Resolve and bilateral arrangements exemplified by the US–Japan Security Treaty and U.S.–ROK Mutual Defense Treaty. It called for enhanced regional missile defenses in partnership with entities including the Missile Defense Agency and cooperation with contractors like Raytheon on systems such as the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense. The document sought to deter adversaries through combined capabilities and forward posture discussions at summits including G7 meetings and consultations with NATO Secretary General officials.

Arms control, nonproliferation, and modernization

While affirming support for nonproliferation regimes such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and institutions like the International Atomic Energy Agency, the NPR linked arms control to verification and compliance, urging that future treaties address capabilities of the Russian Federation and People's Republic of China. It influenced U.S. positions on New START extension debates and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty suspension and withdrawal. The review recommended investments in modernization across the industrial base, stressing workforce and infrastructure at the Y-12 National Security Complex and urging congressional funding lines in appropriation cycles overseen by the United States House Committee on Appropriations.

Reactions and international response

Responses ranged from support by officials such as Senator Jim Inhofe and defense industry representatives to criticism from arms control advocates like Jayantha Dhanapala and organizations including International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Greenpeace. Allies expressed mixed views: Poland and Lithuania welcomed stronger deterrence language, while officials in Germany and Norway urged diplomacy. Adversaries including the Russian Federation and People's Republic of China condemned perceived escalatory measures, invoking rhetoric from ministries such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Russia) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China in public statements and analyses by think tanks like the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and RAND Corporation.

Implementation and subsequent developments

Following the NPR, the Department of Defense and Department of Energy advanced programs including the Columbia-class submarine procurement, the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent program, and the B61 Mod 12 and associated life-extension programs executed at Savannah River Site-linked facilities. Congressional oversight committees, including the Senate Armed Services Committee and House Armed Services Committee, held hearings assessing budgets and schedules. The NPR's influence persisted into debates over treaty negotiations, modernization funding in the National Defense Authorization Act, and strategic reviews conducted under subsequent administrations and documented in analyses by institutions such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Brookings Institution.

Category:United States nuclear weapons policy