North Carolina Climate Science Report

North Carolina Climate Science Report
Name	North Carolina Climate Science Report
Type	Scientific assessment
Subject	Climate change, environmental science
Published	2015–2016
Publisher	North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, North Carolina State University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Language	English

North Carolina Climate Science Report

The North Carolina Climate Science Report is a state-focused scientific assessment synthesizing observations, modeling, and sectoral analysis about changing climate conditions in North Carolina for stakeholders including policymakers, planners, and researchers. It integrates evidence from regional centers such as NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and academic groups at Duke University, East Carolina University, and Appalachian State University. The report informs deliberations by bodies like the North Carolina General Assembly, North Carolina Department of Transportation, and municipal governments such as Charlotte, North Carolina and Raleigh, North Carolina.

Overview and Key Findings

The assessment concludes that historical records from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Geological Survey, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, and state monitors show warming trends across Asheville, North Carolina, Greensboro, North Carolina, and Wilmington, North Carolina, with sea level rise affecting estuaries like the Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. Key findings highlight increased frequency of heavy precipitation events documented by Federal Emergency Management Agency damage reports, rising coastal inundation observed by United States Army Corps of Engineers tide gauges, and shifting growing seasons noted by United States Department of Agriculture climate zones. The report synthesizes peer-reviewed literature from journals associated with American Geophysical Union, Ecological Society of America, and Journal of Climate to present actionable conclusions for agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency and regional planning commissions.

Climate Trends and Observed Changes

Observed changes draw on instrumental records from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, paleoclimate reconstructions linked with Smithsonian Institution collections, and remote sensing from Landsat and MODIS. Temperature datasets analyzed include outputs from PRISM Climate Group and Hadley Centre reanalysis showing increases in annual mean temperature across the Blue Ridge Mountains, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain. Precipitation trends cite storm records from National Hurricane Center impacts such as Hurricane Fran (1996) and Hurricane Matthew (2016), while hydrologic changes reference streamflow data from United States Geological Survey gages on the Neuse River and Cape Fear River. Coastal observations include beach erosion studies by United States Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and marsh migration monitored by Duke University Wetland Center.

Projected Future Climate Scenarios

Projections synthesize outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensembles, including models developed by GFDL, HadGEM, and NCAR CCSM, downscaled using techniques from Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs method. Scenarios correspond to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 pathways, forecasting increased frequency of extreme heat events comparable to projections published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. Sea level rise trajectories incorporate findings from Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force and NOAA Sea Level Rise Technical Report, projecting relative sea level change at locations such as Cape Hatteras and Bald Head Island. The report discusses risks from changes in hurricane intensity informed by studies at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Ecosystem impacts draw on studies from North Carolina Botanical Garden, North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, and long-term plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Croatan National Forest. Shifts in phenology reference research tied to Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology documenting altered migration timing for species like the Piping Plover and range shifts for taxa including the Carolina northern flying squirrel. Coastal habitat loss cites research on saltmarsh dynamics from University of North Carolina Institute of Marine Sciences and seagrass decline studies by NOAA National Ocean Service. Invasive species and pest dynamics reference analyses by United States Forest Service and North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services on species such as the hemlock woolly adelgid and southern pine beetle.

Impacts on Human Systems and Infrastructure

Human impacts reference infrastructure vulnerability assessments prepared for Port of Wilmington (North Carolina), Charlotte Douglas International Airport, and transportation corridors managed by North Carolina Department of Transportation. Public health effects cite studies from North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health linking heat-related morbidity, vector-borne disease shifts (e.g., Aedes aegypti transmission), and air quality episodes tied to Environmental Protection Agency ozone standards. Agricultural impacts draw on extension research from North Carolina Cooperative Extension and United States Department of Agriculture analyses for crops like tobacco, soybeans, and sweet potatoes in counties including Robeson County, North Carolina and Halifax County, North Carolina.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

The report outlines mitigation pathways consistent with assessments by IPCC and modeled by National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, recommending deployment of renewable energy technologies such as offshore wind projects near Duke Energy lease areas, energy efficiency measures informed by American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, and natural climate solutions supported by The Nature Conservancy initiatives in the Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge. Adaptation strategies include coastal retreat guidance aligned with frameworks from United States Army Corps of Engineers and nature-based solutions promoted by NOAA Office for Coastal Management, as well as resilience planning tools used by Rockefeller Foundation-affiliated programs and municipal efforts in Durham, North Carolina and Asheville, North Carolina.

Research, Data Sources, and Methodology

Methodology integrates climate model evaluation, downscaling, and impact assessment using datasets from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, United States Geological Survey, National Climatic Data Center, and academic repositories at North Carolina State University Libraries. The assessment relied on peer review processes analogous to those of National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and used scenario planning approaches consistent with IPCC guidance. Ongoing research priorities identified include improving coastal marsh models developed with Duke University, enhancing streamflow projections with USGS collaborations, and expanding socio-economic vulnerability mapping in partnership with University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and regional planning organizations.

Category:Climate reports