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| Next-Generation Global Prediction System | |
|---|---|
| Name | Next-Generation Global Prediction System |
| Abbreviation | NGGPS |
| Developer | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Japan Meteorological Agency; Met Office |
| Status | operational / developmental |
| First release | 2020s |
| Programming language | Fortran; Python (programming language); C (programming language) |
| License | mixed |
Next-Generation Global Prediction System The Next-Generation Global Prediction System is an advanced initiative to deliver unified, global numerical prediction across weather, ocean, and climate timescales. It integrates research from National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and operational centers such as Météo-France and Canadian Meteorological Centre to replace legacy forecasting suites. The program emphasizes modularity, ensemble prediction, and coupling among atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice models to support users including World Meteorological Organization, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
The project brings together expertise from European Commission initiatives, academic partners like Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Oxford, and ETH Zurich, and national services such as Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), Korea Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration. It aims to unify model cores and data assimilation strategies used by agencies including NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace. Funding and coordination draw on programs like Horizon Europe, National Science Foundation, and bilateral accords with institutions such as Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Objectives align with mandates from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment needs and seasonal forecasting requirements from Farming Future Project stakeholders and International Civil Aviation Organization operations. Goals include improving predictability for phenomena linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Madden–Julian Oscillation, and supporting hazard forecasting for events similar to Hurricane Katrina, Typhoon Haiyan, and European heat wave of 2003. The scope spans sub-daily to decadal timescales to inform users including International Monetary Fund analysts, World Bank planners, and non-governmental groups like Red Cross.
The architecture adopts modular components inspired by projects at Princeton University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and Stack Exchange (network)–style community development to host model kernels, physics suites, and coupling frameworks such as the Earth System Modeling Framework and Ocean Model Intercomparison Project interfaces. Core components include atmosphere dynamical cores developed alongside work at Los Alamos National Laboratory, ocean circulation models from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, land-surface schemes related to European Space Agency projects, and sea-ice modules used by Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
Data assimilation leverages hybrid variational and ensemble methods developed at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Met Office and integrates observations from GOES-R series, Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership, Copernicus Programme satellites, and in situ networks such as Argo (oceanography), Global Drifter Program, and Synoptic weather station arrays maintained by Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Argentina). It ingests remote sensing streams from missions like Sentinel-3, Jason-3, and radiosonde campaigns operated by NOAA Hurricane Hunters and research programs at Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory.
Numerical schemes include high-order finite-volume and spectral element methods tested in collaborations with Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Caltech researchers, along with subgrid parametrizations for convection, cloud microphysics, and turbulence co-developed with groups at Columbia University, University of Reading, and University of Copenhagen. Physics packages draw on legacy work from National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Atmosphere Model and incorporate schemes informed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change process studies and field campaigns such as TOGA and GATE.
Scalability targets are aligned with exascale computing initiatives at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Riken centers, using workflow tools like Slurm Workload Manager and containerization platforms used by CERN collaborations. Software engineering practices borrow from open-source communities such as GitHub and Apache Software Foundation, and leverage hardware accelerators from vendors like NVIDIA and Intel Corporation. Data management follows standards endorsed by Committee on Earth Observation Satellites and archival strategies similar to National Centers for Environmental Information.
Operational services include global medium-range forecasts, subseasonal-to-seasonal outlooks, and coupled ocean-atmosphere predictions used by International Maritime Organization, European Space Agency mission planning, and humanitarian response coordinated with United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Scientific services support attribution studies akin to those by World Weather Attribution and long-lead climate projections used in IPCC assessments, benefiting agricultural initiatives like Food and Agriculture Organization programs and energy sector planning for utilities such as Électricité de France.
Governance models combine multilateral oversight reminiscent of World Meteorological Organization committees, consortium agreements like those underpinning Large Hadron Collider collaborations, and community codes of practice seen at OpenStreetMap. Development strategies emphasize reproducibility, peer review with journals like Journal of Climate and Monthly Weather Review, and phased implementation coordinated between agencies including NOAA, ECMWF, Met Office, and regional bodies such as African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development.