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| Kermack and McKendrick | |
|---|---|
| Name | William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick |
| Caption | Portraits of Kermack and McKendrick |
| Birth date | 1880s–1890s |
| Death date | 1950s–1960s |
| Nationality | Scottish |
| Fields | Mathematics, Chemistry, Epidemiology |
| Institutions | University of Aberdeen, University of Glasgow, Royal Society |
| Known for | Epidemic modelling, compartmental models |
Kermack and McKendrick were Scottish scientists whose joint work in the early 20th century established foundational mathematical descriptions of infectious disease dynamics. Their collaborations during the interwar period produced models that influenced researchers across disciplines and institutions, shaping thinking in public health, applied mathematics, and epidemiology in contexts ranging from academic laboratories to governmental agencies.
William Ogilvy Kermack trained in chemistry and toxicology at institutions including the University of Aberdeen and worked with figures such as Alexander Fleck and Sir Robert Robinson, while Anderson Gray McKendrick trained in mathematics and physiology with links to the University of Glasgow and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Kermack held positions connected to the Royal Society of Edinburgh and industrial research at firms analogous to those associated with Imperial Chemical Industries; McKendrick engaged with public health bodies and academic circles that included contacts at the Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust. Their personal networks extended to contemporaries such as John Maynard Keynes-era economists, statisticians in the vein of Karl Pearson, and clinicians associated with hospitals like St Bartholomew's Hospital and Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh. During careers intersecting with events like World War I and the interwar scientific renaissance, both communicated with leading scientists across Europe, including researchers from University of Cambridge, University of Oxford, École Normale Supérieure, and institutes in Berlin and Paris.
Their analytical techniques drew on traditions from applied mathematics at Trinity College, Cambridge and thermodynamics studies influenced by names like Ludwig Boltzmann and James Clerk Maxwell. Kermack's background in chemical kinetics connected to work by Svante Arrhenius and Walther Nernst, while McKendrick's probabilistic approach paralleled developments by Andrey Kolmogorov and Ronald Fisher. They formulated differential equations using methods related to those employed by George Gabriel Stokes, Lord Rayleigh, and contemporaries in mathematical biology such as D'Arcy Thompson and Vito Volterra. Their papers appeared amid discourse with scholars at University of Edinburgh, Imperial College London, and the Pasteur Institute, and were later built upon by theoreticians associated with Princeton University, Harvard University, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Their core papers introduced compartmental approaches now compared with frameworks developed at institutions like Rockefeller Institute and journals read by faculty at Johns Hopkins University and Columbia University. The models used susceptible, infected, and recovered compartments resembling later formulations by researchers at Bell Labs and by mathematical epidemiologists affiliated with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization committees. Subsequent elaborations by scientists connected to Stanford University, University of California, Berkeley, and University of Michigan expanded the theory to include stochasticity and age structure similar to work by scholars at Max Planck Institute and Institut Pasteur. Applications of their integro-differential formulations informed responses to epidemics in contexts involving officials from Ministry of Health (United Kingdom), planners influenced by the League of Nations Health Organization, and later public health agencies during crises like influenza pandemics studied by researchers at Yale University and University College London.
Their work was cited and debated by contemporaries including mathematical biologists linked to University of Toronto and statisticians at Royal Statistical Society. Influential uptake occurred among academics at Columbia University, University of Chicago, and University of Pennsylvania, and within governmental science advisory bodies akin to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Critics and supporters included scientists from Imperial College, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and international centers such as Karolinska Institute and Tokyo University. The models shaped curricula at institutions like King's College London and informed textbooks authored by figures associated with Cambridge University Press and Oxford University Press.
Their correspondence extended to researchers at Royal Society, British Empire Medical Research Laboratories, and academic peers at University of Glasgow, University of Aberdeen, and University of Edinburgh. Letters and manuscript exchanges paralleled epistolary networks involving scientists at National Physical Laboratory and colleagues tied to Wellcome Collection archives. Collaborative threads connected them indirectly with figures from LSE and industrial researchers influenced by the same intellectual milieu as those at Rothamsted Experimental Station and Smithsonian Institution.
The models attributed to them are commemorated in courses at Harvard University, Princeton University, Imperial College London, and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and are foundational in research at institutes such as Sainsbury Laboratory and Oxford Pandemic Modelling Group. Scholarly retrospectives have appeared in venues associated with Royal Society of Edinburgh, Academy of Medical Sciences, and in symposia organized by bodies like the Wellcome Trust and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Archives and honors related to their work are preserved in collections at institutions resembling the National Library of Scotland and university special collections at University of Glasgow and University of Aberdeen. Their intellectual legacy continues to inform modeling used by agencies including World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and national public health institutes during contemporary epidemic and pandemic planning.
Category:Mathematical epidemiology Category:Scottish scientists