IMO GHG Study 2014
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| IMO GHG Study 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Title | IMO GHG Study 2014 |
| Author | International Maritime Organization |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | International Maritime Organization |
| Pub date | 2014 |
| Pages | 250 |
IMO GHG Study 2014 The IMO GHG Study 2014 is a comprehensive assessment published by the International Maritime Organization estimating greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping for 2007 and projecting emissions through 2050. The Study was produced under the auspices of the Marine Environment Protection Committee and involved collaboration with consultants, national delegations, and stakeholder groups including representatives from International Chamber of Shipping, BIMCO, Intertanko, and environmental organizations. It informed negotiations at IMO sessions and contributed to international climate discussions involving bodies such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the European Commission.
Background and Objectives
The Study was commissioned by the International Maritime Organization following resolutions and deliberations at sessions of the Marine Environment Protection Committee and drew on procedural mandates linked to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and earlier assessments referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Its primary objectives included producing updated inventories of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from international shipping, developing baseline scenarios to 2050, and assessing mitigation potentials aligned with work by parties to the Kyoto Protocol and emerging positions related to the Paris Agreement. Stakeholders included shipowners represented by International Chamber of Shipping, shipbuilders associated with Nippon Steel, classification societies such as Lloyd's Register, and flag States like Panama and Liberia.
Methodology and Data Sources
The Study applied bottom-up and top-down approaches, combining activity data, fuel consumption statistics, and emission factors drawn from datasets maintained by the International Energy Agency, UNCTAD, and national administrations including United States Environmental Protection Agency reports. Ship fleet data were sourced from registers such as the Lloyd's Register and databases maintained by Clarkson Research Services, IHS Markit, and classification societies. Emission factors and methodologies referenced work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and aligned with reporting guidance from the Marine Environment Protection Committee. Scenarios used assumptions about trade growth, energy intensity and fleet turnover informed by projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and shipping forecasts from Drewry Shipping Consultants and UNCTAD.
Key Findings and Emissions Estimates
The Study estimated that international shipping emitted approximately 1,076 million tonnes of CO2 in 2007, representing a significant share of anthropogenic emissions comparable to national accounts discussed by the International Energy Agency. It presented projections showing that without additional policies emissions could increase substantially by 2050 under high-growth scenarios modeled similarly to those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Study highlighted sectoral contributors including container shipping dominated by fleets linked to ports such as Port of Shanghai and Port of Rotterdam, bulk carriers servicing routes between Brazil and China, and oil tankers operating in corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz. It quantified emissions by ship type, flag State and trade route, referencing registration patterns of States like Panama and Marshall Islands.
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
The Study provided sensitivity analyses addressing uncertainties in activity data, fuel mix, and technological uptake, comparing alternative projections informed by scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and econometric forecasts from the World Bank. It identified key sources of uncertainty including under-reporting in national fuel statistics maintained by agencies such as the International Energy Agency and variability in operational profiles documented by classification societies like American Bureau of Shipping. Sensitivity runs examined impacts of variations in fleet efficiency, slow steaming practices observed after the 2008 financial crisis, and adoption rates of energy-saving technologies promoted by Lloyd's Register and shipyards such as Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering.
Policy Implications and Recommendations
Based on its findings, the Study recommended that the International Maritime Organization consider a mix of technical and operational measures, market-based mechanisms, and improved data collection. Suggested interventions included energy-efficiency standards akin to regulatory frameworks being discussed by the European Commission and performance-based measures referenced in submissions from the International Chamber of Shipping, as well as potential economic instruments similar in rationale to carbon pricing debates under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Study emphasized capacity-building for flag and port States including Panama, Liberia, and Greece and recommended enhanced reporting and verification aligned with guidance from the Marine Environment Protection Committee.
Reception, Criticism, and Subsequent Research
The Study was cited and critiqued by a range of actors: industry groups such as International Chamber of Shipping welcomed improved data but cautioned about scenario assumptions, while environmental NGOs referenced studies by Greenpeace and Carbon War Room that urged stricter baselines. Academic critiques appeared in journals and reports from institutions like University College London, University of Oxford, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology highlighting methodological choices and uncertainties in non-CO2 forcings discussed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Subsequent independent analyses by CE Delft and model updates from ICCT produced refined estimates and alternative scenario outcomes that informed ongoing debates.
Impact on IMO Policy and Follow-up Studies
The Study influenced deliberations at successive sessions of the Marine Environment Protection Committee and contributed to adoption of measures including the adoption of mandatory energy-efficiency measures and the development of monitoring, reporting and verification frameworks later progressed in IMO instruments. It served as a baseline for later assessments and follow-up studies commissioned by the International Maritime Organization and independent research by organizations like CE Delft, International Council on Clean Transportation, and academic centers at University College London and University of Cambridge that further explored mitigation pathways, lifecycle analyses, and interactions with international climate policy frameworks such as the Paris Agreement.