HayWired

HayWired
Name	HayWired
Type	earthquake scenario
Location	San Francisco Bay Area, California, United States
Date	2018–2019 (exercise and publication)
Organizers	United States Geological Survey, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Caltech, University of California, Berkeley, California Geological Survey
Focus	earthquake-induced cascading infrastructure impacts

HayWired.

HayWired was a large-scale earthquake scenario and interdisciplinary resilience study focused on a major seismic event in the San Francisco Bay Area. It brought together academic institutions, federal and state agencies, regional utilities, and private-sector infrastructure operators to analyze earthquake shaking, lifeline failures, communications disruption, and cascading urban impacts. The project produced probabilistic models, engineering analyses, hazard maps, and recommendations intended to inform planning by agencies and companies across the Bay Area.

Background and Objectives

The exercise was initiated by the United States Geological Survey in collaboration with Federal Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, San Francisco Office of Resilience and Capital Planning, City and County of San Francisco, County of Alameda, County of Contra Costa, County of Marin, County of San Mateo, and County of Santa Clara. Academic partners included University of California, Berkeley, California Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of California, Davis, University of California, Santa Cruz, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Private-sector participants included Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, AT&T, Comcast, and regional transit agencies such as Bay Area Rapid Transit and Metropolitan Transportation Commission. The objectives were to evaluate how a large earthquake could damage structures, utilities, transportation, and digital networks, and to estimate societal and economic consequences for stakeholders like Caltrans, Port of Oakland, San Francisco International Airport, Oakland International Airport, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, US Navy, and major universities.

Scenario and Methodology

The scenario simulated a large rupture on a major fault in the Bay Area and integrated inputs from seismology groups at USGS, Caltech, Berkeley Seismology Lab, and Southern California Earthquake Center. Ground-motion models referenced prior events including the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and paleoseismic studies of the Hayward Fault Zone, while incorporating crustal models used by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and urban earthquake loss modeling by Applied Technology Council and EQE International. Engineers from ASCE and International Code Council applied building performance frameworks tested in studies on Northridge earthquake and Kobe earthquake consequences. The methodology combined high-resolution shaking maps, soil liquefaction assessments, landslide inventories from USGS Landslide Hazards Program, lifeline fragility curves from Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Southern California Edison, transportation network analyses used by Caltrans District 4 and Metropolitan Transportation Commission, and telecommunications modeling informed by AT&T and Verizon network data. Economic impact estimations referenced models from National Institute of Building Sciences, RAND Corporation, and Brookings Institution.

Key Findings and Impacts

Analyses projected widespread structural damage across cities including Oakland, San Francisco, Berkeley, Hayward, San Mateo, Palo Alto, Richmond, Concord, and Santa Clara, with critical failures at older unretrofitted buildings similar to those observed after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and 1994 Northridge earthquake. Lifeline disruptions anticipated major outages for Pacific Gas and Electric Company gas and electric distribution, potable water interruptions for systems run by San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and Santa Clara Valley Water District, and wastewater impacts affecting the East Bay Municipal Utility District and San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Transportation system degradation included service suspension on Bay Area Rapid Transit, heavy damage to state routes managed by Caltrans, port disruptions at Port of Oakland, and runway impacts at San Francisco International Airport and Oakland International Airport. Telecommunications modeling predicted cellular and fiber outages affecting carriers like AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast, with cascading failures that impaired emergency coordination involving San Francisco Fire Department, Oakland Police Department, California Highway Patrol, and Coast Guard Pacific Area. Economic loss estimates referenced precedents from Northridge earthquake recovery, FEMA disaster cost models, and National Flood Insurance Program-adjacent analyses to quantify business interruption, supply-chain disruption involving firms headquartered in Silicon Valley and San Francisco Financial District, and public health impacts analogous to those studied after Hurricane Katrina and 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami.

Recommendations and Resilience Measures

The study recommended prioritized seismic retrofits for unreinforced masonry buildings and soft-story wood-frame structures in jurisdictions including San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley, Emeryville, Hayward, and Richmond using standards promoted by Cal/OSHA and ASCE 41. For lifelines, recommendations included targeted hardening of gas transmission systems managed by Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Kinder Morgan, seismic upgrades for water storage and distribution assets for San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and Marin Municipal Water District, and redundancy planning for telecommunications by AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, and regional Internet exchanges collaborating with Internet2. Transportation resilience measures emphasized bridge retrofits overseen by Caltrans, seismic strengthening of BART infrastructure coordinated with Metropolitan Transportation Commission, and emergency response route designation utilized by California Highway Patrol and Federal Emergency Management Agency. Policy recommendations encouraged funding mechanisms through the California Earthquake Authority, state bonds advocated by the California State Legislature, and public–private partnerships similar to initiatives led by World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank in hazard-prone regions.

Stakeholder Involvement and Implementation

Implementation planning engaged municipal emergency managers from San Francisco Office of Emergency Management, county offices like Alameda County Office of Emergency Services, transit operators including Bay Area Rapid Transit and Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, and utilities such as Pacific Gas and Electric Company and PG&E Corporation. Academic teams from University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, Caltech, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory provided ongoing research, while non-governmental organizations including American Red Cross, Salvation Army, and United Way Bay Area coordinated humanitarian planning. Financial stakeholders included Federal Emergency Management Agency funding streams, state agencies like California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank, and philanthropic actors mirroring efforts by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and James Irvine Foundation for regional resilience grants.

Reception and Legacy

The exercise influenced regional policy discussions among the California State Legislature, municipal boards in San Francisco Board of Supervisors and Oakland City Council, and planning at agencies such as Caltrans, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors, and Metropolitan Transportation Commission. It informed updates to seismic safety ordinances, retrofit programs modeled after San Francisco Earthquake Safety Implementation Program, and federal hazard mitigation planning aligned with FEMA guidance. The scenario spurred further research collaborations across USGS, Stanford University, UC Berkeley, and international counterparts that study urban disasters like teams responding to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami and Christchurch earthquake recovery efforts. Its datasets and approaches have been cited by infrastructure owners, insurers including Verisk, academic publications from Seismological Society of America, and resilience initiatives led by National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Category:Earthquake preparedness