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| Great Lakes Climate Change Science Program | |
|---|---|
| Name | Great Lakes Climate Change Science Program |
| Formation | 2000s |
| Type | Research coordination program |
| Headquarters | Great Lakes region |
| Region served | Midwestern United States, Ontario, Quebec |
| Parent organization | Multiple federal, state, provincial, and academic partners |
Great Lakes Climate Change Science Program is a coordinated research initiative addressing climate change impacts on the Great Lakes basin, integrating hydrology, limnology, ecology, and socio-economic studies. The program convenes scientists from federal agencies, academic institutions, and regional partners to produce actionable science for water resources, fisheries, and infrastructure in the United States and Canada. It synthesizes long-term observations, modeling, and stakeholder engagement to inform regional planning and transboundary management across the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin.
The program brings together researchers from agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the United States Geological Survey, the Environmental Protection Agency, Natural Resources Canada, and the Canadian Freshwater Agency with universities including the University of Michigan, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Michigan State University, Ohio State University, University of Toronto, McMaster University, and Queen's University. It coordinates with regional organizations like the Great Lakes Commission, the International Joint Commission, the Great Lakes Fishery Commission, and conservation groups including Nature Conservancy and Trout Unlimited while engaging state and provincial bodies such as the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.
Origins trace to collaborative frameworks inspired by cross-border agreements such as the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement and initiatives following reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Research Council. Early convenings involved laboratories like the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and centers such as the Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research; these meetings fostered partnerships with municipal utilities in Chicago, Toronto, and Cleveland and with watershed authorities such as the Fond du Lac Band and the Chippewa-Ottawa Resource Authority. Funding and strategic direction were influenced by programs at the National Science Foundation, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, and the Environment and Climate Change Canada research agenda, while synthesis products drew on expertise from the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest community.
Primary objectives include quantifying climate-driven changes in lake levels, temperature regimes, ice cover, and hydrodynamics to support management of fisheries, shipping, and coastal infrastructure. Research priorities emphasize linking paleoclimate records from locations like Lake Superior and Lake Ontario with contemporary observations from the Great Lakes Observing System and sediment archives studied by teams at the University of Minnesota and the University at Buffalo. Priority topics include impacts on species such as walleye, lake trout, and invasive taxa like zebra mussel and Asian carp; risks to ports including Port of Duluth–Superior, Port of Milwaukee, and Port of Toronto; and implications for treaties like the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909.
The program is structured as a distributed network with coordinating committees composed of scientists from institutions such as the Scripps Institution of Oceanography partner nodes, policy liaisons from the Council of Great Lakes Governors, and technical working groups that include modelers from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and biologists from the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. Partnerships extend to municipal water utilities including the Chicago Department of Water Management, industrial stakeholders like the US Steel Corporation, and Indigenous governments such as the Anishinabek Nation and the Métis National Council. Collaborative memoranda and joint projects often cite frameworks used by the Arctic Council and methodologies refined through the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
Major projects include basin-scale climate impact assessments, ice-cover trend analyses led by researchers at Cornell University and Purdue University, and integrated assessments of nutrient loading and harmful algal blooms connected to studies at Toledo Harbor and Maumee River watersheds. Findings report decreasing ice cover trends consistent with IPCC scenarios, shifts in thermal stratification documented at long-term monitoring stations near Saginaw Bay and Georgian Bay, and altered phenology affecting yellow perch and smelt populations. Work on invasive species vectors has involved ports like Buffalo and Hamilton, Ontario, while socio-economic studies at the University of Chicago and Indiana University evaluated impacts on commercial fisheries, tourism in regions such as the Bruce Peninsula, and transportation corridors like the Welland Canal.
Data sources include long-term hydrometeorological records from the National Weather Service, lake level archives from the Army Corps of Engineers, and water quality monitoring by the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and provincial partners. Methods span paleolimnology using cores analyzed at the Royal Ontario Museum and isotope geochemistry labs at McMaster University, remote sensing with satellites managed by NASA, and advanced hydrodynamic modeling with tools developed at the University of Miami and the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory adaptation groups. Coupled climate-hydrology-ecosystem models are calibrated with downscaled projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and ensemble outputs from centers like the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley Centre. Data assimilation techniques leverage platforms such as the Great Lakes Observing System and open repositories modeled after the Pangea Data Publisher.
Program outputs inform binational management frameworks administered by the International Joint Commission and guide investments under initiatives like the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative and state-level adaptation plans in Michigan and Ohio. Tools and guidance developed with partners such as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources support shoreline resilience projects in municipalities like Buffalo, Sarnia, and Milwaukee and influence shipping operations coordinated with the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation. Outreach includes training modules co-produced with the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, public briefings with the National Governors Association, and community engagement programs conducted with tribal partners including the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians. The program contributes to peer-reviewed synthesis published in journals associated with American Geophysical Union, Ecological Society of America, and Limnology and Oceanography.
Category:Great Lakes science