Global Earthquake Model

Global Earthquake Model
Name	Global Earthquake Model
Abbreviation	GEM
Formation	2006
Headquarters	Pavia, Italy
Region served	Global

Global Earthquake Model is an international consortium that develops open-access tools and data for seismic hazard, seismic risk, and resilience assessment. It integrates computational modeling, observational networks, and engineering practice to support decision-making in urban planning, insurance, and disaster risk reduction. GEM collaborates with academic institutions, international agencies, and national authorities to produce standardized models, software, and protocols for assessing earthquake impacts on populations, infrastructure, and heritage.

Overview

GEM produces interoperable frameworks for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic seismic risk assessment, and scenario-based loss estimation, drawing on collaborations among United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, World Bank, European Commission, United Nations Development Programme, and national agencies such as United States Geological Survey, Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, and Japan Meteorological Agency. Its work supports standards and initiatives including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Hyogo Framework for Action, International Organization for Standardization, Building Research Establishment, and industry partners like Munich Re, Swiss Re, and Lloyd's of London. GEM's outputs are used alongside global datasets from Global Seismographic Network, International Seismological Centre, European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, and regional centers including Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and Centro Sismológico Nacional.

History and development

GEM was established through a multi-stakeholder initiative convened by entities such as European Commission and World Bank with technical participation from universities including University of Cambridge, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Tokyo, Oxford University, and Politecnico di Milano. Early projects linked to major events—such as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, 2010 Haiti earthquake, 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, and 2005 Kashmir earthquake—highlighted gaps in global seismic risk information and motivated development of standardized hazard maps, vulnerability functions, and exposure models. Over successive phases GEM expanded partnerships to include regional research centers like Seismological Society of America, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Inter-American Development Bank, and national research laboratories like Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and National Research Council (Italy).

Methodology and components

GEM's methodology integrates seismic source characterization, ground motion modeling, exposure databases, vulnerability and fragility modeling, and loss estimation tools, combining inputs from observational networks such as Global Seismographic Network and modeling platforms developed at institutions like CNR, ETH Zurich, Columbia University, California Institute of Technology, and National Taiwan University. Core components include the OpenQuake engine, stochastic ground motion simulation workflows, and regional exposure models that leverage building inventory data from projects linked to UN Habitat, World Bank Open Data, and national censuses. Vulnerability functions and fragility curves are informed by empirical post-event reconnaissance from organizations such as Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, GeoHazards International, and International Association for Earthquake Engineering, and by engineering standards from American Society of Civil Engineers and European Committee for Standardization. The platform supports probabilistic and deterministic analyses, enabling scenario earthquakes, time-dependent models, and ensemble simulations using inputs from seismic catalogs like ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and paleoseismology records curated by International Union of Geological Sciences affiliates.

Applications and impact

GEM's tools inform seismic risk assessments used by development banks such as Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and African Development Bank to guide infrastructure investments and resilience projects. Insurance and reinsurance sectors—represented by Guy Carpenter, Aon, and Willis Towers Watson—use GEM-compatible models for portfolio risk aggregation and catastrophe modeling alongside proprietary platforms like RMS and AIR Worldwide. Urban planners and heritage conservationists reference GEM outputs in projects tied to ICOMOS, UNESCO World Heritage Centre, and municipal authorities in megacities such as Istanbul, Mexico City, Jakarta, Kathmandu, and Los Angeles. GEM-supported loss estimations have contributed to post-disaster needs assessments coordinated with United Nations Development Programme and humanitarian actors such as International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

Governance and partnerships

GEM operates as a public-private partnership with governance structures that include an executive board, scientific advisory committees, and regional partners. Key institutional partners have included European Commission, World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and academic consortia from University of Oxford, Imperial College London, National Taiwan University, and University of California, Berkeley. Industry collaborations involve reinsurance firms like Munich Re and Swiss Re, engineering consultancies, and open-science advocates such as Open Knowledge Foundation. Regional hubs and focal points maintain ties with national seismological services including Geological Survey of India, Geoscience Australia, Servicio Sismológico Nacional (Mexico), and Instituto Geofísico del Perú.

Funding and sustainability

GEM's funding model combines grants, institutional contributions, project-based contracts, and partner in-kind support. Major funders and supporters have included European Commission research programs, World Bank grants, philanthropic foundations like Wellcome Trust-style funders and corporate sponsors from the insurance sector. Sustainability efforts focus on capacity building through training programs with universities and agencies, incorporation into international frameworks such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and alignment with climate resilience initiatives led by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change-linked entities. Continuous funding challenges are addressed via diversified revenue streams, fee-for-service projects, and collaborative research proposals with institutions like Horizon Europe and national research councils.

Category:Seismology organizations