Flood Forecasting Centre

Flood Forecasting Centre
Name	Flood Forecasting Centre
Founded	2009
Country	United Kingdom
Headquarters	London
Parent organizations	UK Environment Agency; Met Office

Flood Forecasting Centre

The Flood Forecasting Centre provides national-scale flood risk advice for England and Wales, combining expertise from the Environment Agency (England and Wales), the Met Office and other emergency management bodies to coordinate responses to river and coastal flooding. It issues multi-day flood risk assessments that guide operational decisions by Local Resilience Forums, National Health Service (England), and regional emergency services such as London Fire Brigade, Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service, and Royal National Lifeboat Institution. The Centre interfaces with infrastructure bodies including Network Rail, National Grid (Great Britain), and water companies like United Utilities and Severn Trent.

Overview

The Centre synthesizes hydrological modelling from the Environment Agency (England and Wales), atmospheric forecasting from the Met Office, and situational awareness from agencies including the Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and regional bodies such as Wessex Water and Natural Resources Wales. Its output informs strategic decision-making by organizations like Ministry of Defence (United Kingdom), Transport for London, and Highways England during high-impact weather linked to systems such as Storm Desmond, Storm Desmond (2015), Cyclone Xaver, and Storm Ciara. The Centre supports cross-sector coordination with flood incident response teams drawn from British Army units during extreme events and integrates datasets from agencies including Ordnance Survey and Environment Agency Flood Map for Planning.

History and Development

Established in response to the 2007 UK floods and subsequent reviews involving Sir Michael Pitt and the Pitt Review (2008), the Centre was co-founded by the Environment Agency (England and Wales) and the Met Office to address shortcomings identified by inquiries into events like the Somerset Levels flooding and the 2007 United Kingdom floods. Its development involved policy direction from Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ministers and technical input from institutions such as Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Geological Survey, and academic partners including Imperial College London and University of Oxford. Over time it expanded liaison with international agencies such as the European Flood Awareness System and operational partners like Scottish Environment Protection Agency.

Organization and Governance

Governance is overseen jointly by senior executives from the Environment Agency (England and Wales) and the Met Office with oversight linked to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and strategic guidance from the Civil Contingencies Secretariat. Operational leadership integrates specialists seconded from agencies including Natural Resources Wales, Local Government Association, and emergency services such as West Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service. The Centre coordinates with regional resilience structures like Local Resilience Forums and national bodies including National Police Chiefs' Council and Cabinet Office units during designated severe-weather periods.

Forecasting Methods and Technology

Forecasting blends meteorological models from the Met Office—including ensembles from the Unified Model and Global Ensemble Prediction System—with hydrological models from the Environment Agency (England and Wales) such as the Grid-to-Grid model and catchment-scale routing tools developed with partners like Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. It ingests radar products from networks managed by Met Office Weather Radar, river gauge telemetry from Environment Agency flood gauges, tide gauge observations from UK Hydrographic Office, and elevation data from Ordnance Survey. Computational platforms include high-performance computing resources aligned with Met Office supercomputing facilities and data services interoperable with standards from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS).

Services and Operational Activities

Operational outputs comprise probabilistic flood risk assessments, tactical flood guidance, and situation reports used by stakeholders such as Network Rail, Transport for London, United Kingdom Power Networks, and local authorities like Lancashire County Council. The Centre issues pre-event briefings for events with potential impacts similar to Storm Desmond (2015) and post-event analyses supporting recovery coordinated with bodies like Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities and Environment Agency (England and Wales) incident management teams. It maintains a duty rota for 24/7 forecasting, provides training in cooperation with institutions such as Met Office College and University of Leeds, and contributes to national exercises involving Cabinet Office resilience planning.

Partnerships and Research

Research collaborations include projects with Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Geological Survey, Imperial College London, University of Manchester, and the Natural Environment Research Council. International engagement spans links with the European Flood Awareness System, Copernicus Emergency Management Service, and bilateral exchanges with agencies like United States National Weather Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The Centre contributes to innovation consortia funded by UK Research and Innovation and works with technology partners such as Atos and cloud suppliers to prototype data-driven services and machine-learning applications for rapid flood mapping.

Criticism and Challenges

Critiques have focused on the translation of probabilistic forecasts into actionable local decisions, echoing debates seen in reports following Pitt Review (2008) and post-event inquiries into Storm Desmond. Challenges include integrating disparate datasets from bodies like Ordnance Survey and private water companies, communicating uncertainty to stakeholders such as Local Resilience Forums and the National Health Service (England), and sustaining funding within public-sector budgets overseen by HM Treasury. Technical issues include scaling high-resolution hydrodynamic modelling for urban centres like London and Manchester and maintaining interoperability across systems specified by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national agencies.

Category:Flood control in the United Kingdom