Emerging Threats

Emerging Threats
Name	Emerging Threats
Fields	National security; Public health; Cybersecurity; Environmental science

Emerging Threats

Emerging threats encompass new or evolving dangers that affect United Nations, World Health Organization, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, European Union, United States Department of Defense and other institutions; they intersect with issues addressed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Interpol, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Federal Bureau of Investigation and World Economic Forum and inform strategies used by International Committee of the Red Cross, Médecins Sans Frontières, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and Food and Agriculture Organization. Policymakers in White House administrations, Downing Street offices, Kremlin advisors, Bundestag committees, Parliament of India panels and National People's Congress delegations coordinate with think tanks such as RAND Corporation, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Council on Foreign Relations to prioritize responses.

Definition and Scope

Scholars at Harvard University, Stanford University, London School of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and University of Oxford define emerging threats as hazards that evolve in scale or form, often discussed in forums like G7 summit, G20 summit, United Nations General Assembly and World Health Assembly and analyzed by agencies such as National Intelligence Council, CIA, MI6 and Defense Intelligence Agency. Legal frameworks influenced by Geneva Conventions, Patriot Act, General Data Protection Regulation, International Health Regulations (2005) and Stockholm Convention shape scope and jurisdictional responses, while scientific assessments from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and European Space Agency inform technical parameters.

Types of Emerging Threats

Categories include biological threats discussed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, Wellcome Trust, Institut Pasteur and Salk Institute; cyber threats addressed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon Web Services, Cisco Systems and Kaspersky Lab; environmental threats examined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, United Nations Environment Programme and The Nature Conservancy; geopolitical risks involving Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, United States, Iran, North Korea and European Union; and technological risks involving CRISPR, DARPA, DeepMind, OpenAI, Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX. Financial contagion scenarios are modeled by International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank for International Settlements, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

Drivers and Risk Factors

Drivers include globalization traced through Silk Road Economic Belt, Maritime Silk Road, World Trade Organization agreements, supply-chain shifts referenced in Trans-Pacific Partnership, USMCA and influenced by infrastructure projects like Belt and Road Initiative and Panama Canal expansion; climate change pathways studied by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Paris Agreement, Kyoto Protocol and COP26; technological diffusion from Bell Labs, IBM Research, Hewlett-Packard, Intel Corporation and AT&T; and sociopolitical fragmentation seen in analyses of Arab Spring, Brexit referendum, Hong Kong protests, Euromaidan and Catalan independence movement.

Detection and Monitoring

Surveillance networks employ tools from Google, Facebook, Twitter, Palantir Technologies and Bloomberg L.P., while public-health monitoring draws on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Public Health England, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Medicine and Wellcome Trust. Environmental monitoring uses satellites from Landsat, Copernicus Programme, Sentinel-1, Terra (satellite) and Aqua (satellite), and biosurveillance integrates laboratories like Rockefeller University, Johns Hopkins University, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Eijkman Institute and Institut Pasteur. Cyber threat detection involves firms such as FireEye, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Symantec Corporation and McAfee collaborating with agencies like National Cyber Security Centre, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and European Union Agency for Cybersecurity.

Risk Assessment and Impact Analysis

Quantitative modeling used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, European Commission, McKinsey & Company and Accenture applies scenario analysis from IPCC Special Report, Scenario Planning at RAND Corporation, Horizon scanning at OECD, NASA climate models and NOAA forecasting. Impact assessments reference historical precedents such as 2008 financial crisis, 2003 European heat wave, 2014 Ebola epidemic, COVID-19 pandemic and Chernobyl disaster to estimate cascade effects across sectors overseen by International Labour Organization, World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization and International Maritime Organization.

Prevention, Mitigation, and Policy Responses

Responses combine public health measures instituted by World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Pan American Health Organization with arms-control instruments like Non-Proliferation Treaty, Biological Weapons Convention, Chemical Weapons Convention, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and diplomacy via United Nations Security Council, Geneva Conference, Helsinki Accords and Camp David Accords. Cyber norms developed through Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, Tallinn Manual discussions and multilateral talks at G20 and UN General Assembly complement resilience investments by World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank.

Case Studies and Historical Examples

Notable case studies include biological events such as 1918 influenza pandemic, 2009 swine flu pandemic, 2014–2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic, COVID-19 pandemic and laboratory incidents at Fort Detrick; cyber incidents including Stuxnet, WannaCry ransomware attack, NotPetya cyberattack, SolarWinds hack and Equifax data breach; environmental crises like Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, Hurricane Katrina, Australian bushfires (2019–20) and Amazon rainforest deforestation disputes; and technological controversies surrounding CRISPR babies (He Jiankui affair), Cambridge Analytica scandal, Theranos scandal, Y2K preparations and Space Shuttle Challenger disaster.

Category:Security studies