Division of Research and Statistics

Division of Research and Statistics
Name	Division of Research and Statistics
Type	Research division
Formed	20th century
Headquarters	Washington, D.C.
Parent organization	Federal Reserve System

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Division of Research and Statistics

The Division of Research and Statistics is a research unit within the Federal Reserve System that conducts macroeconomic analysis, modeling, and statistical work to support monetary policy, regulatory review, and financial stability. It provides staff analyses for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, supports deliberations related to the Federal Open Market Committee, and collaborates with national and international institutions on applied research. The division's work intersects with topics addressed by institutions such as the United States Department of the Treasury, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Bank for International Settlements.

History

The division traces origins to earlier analytic staffs that supported the Federal Reserve Act implementation and the policy responses to the Great Depression, the World War II mobilization, and the postwar reconstruction overseen alongside efforts involving the Bretton Woods Conference and the Marshall Plan. During the late 20th century, milestones included contributions to debates after the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Volcker disinflation, and the regulatory shifts following the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s. The division expanded its empirical capacity following the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2007–2008 financial crisis, coordinating research with entities such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Organizationally, the division is structured into units analogous to research groups found at institutions like National Bureau of Economic Research, Brookings Institution, American Enterprise Institute, and Peterson Institute for International Economics. Leadership has historically included economists who moved between the division and academia at Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University, Yale University, Stanford University, and University of Chicago. Directors and senior staff have interacted with prominent policymakers and scholars associated with the Council of Economic Advisers, the Treasury Secretary, and central bank governors such as those from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

The division performs macroeconomic forecasting and scenario analysis for meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee and supports policy tools similar to work at the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget. It undertakes stress-testing designs analogous to frameworks used by the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act implementation teams and contributes to systemic risk assessment alongside the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Staff produce models akin to those developed at Carnegie Mellon University, Columbia University, University of Pennsylvania, and New York University for use in regulatory rulemaking and supervisory guidance coordinated with agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Major programs include macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, financial stability and systemic risk analysis, household and firm microdata research, and payments-system studies. These programs relate to topics investigated in works from the National Bureau of Economic Research cycles, empirical projects at the Census Bureau, and microdata linkages reminiscent of projects at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Collaborative efforts have connected with research agendas at RAND Corporation, Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the OECD.

The division relies on survey and administrative data such as the Current Population Survey, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Financial Accounts of the United States, and supervisory datasets maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Methodologies draw on econometric traditions from work by scholars associated with Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureates and modeling practices used at International Monetary Fund technical assistance missions, employing techniques found in panel-data research from University of Michigan, time-series methods developed in part at Princeton University, and machine-learning approaches similar to those advanced at Carnegie Mellon University and Google Research.

The division issues internal memos, staff reports, and working papers that inform public releases such as the Beige Book, Federal Reserve Bulletin, and minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. Its staff publish in journals and outlets alongside contributions to collections edited by organizations like the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge University Press, and Oxford University Press. Reports frequently cite and interact with analyses from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank for International Settlements, and academic series from Harvard University Press.

Research from the division has influenced major policy episodes including responses to the Great Recession, the design of stress-testing protocols during 2010s financial reforms, and analytical frameworks adopted during pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Its work informs congressional testimony before committees such as the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and the United States House Committee on Financial Services, and shapes dialogue with central banks including the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the People's Bank of China.