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| Datafolha | |
|---|---|
| Name | Datafolha |
| Founded | 1983 |
| Headquarters | São Paulo |
| Area served | Brazil |
| Industry | Public opinion research |
Datafolha is a Brazilian polling institute associated with the Folha de S.Paulo media group and active in public opinion research, electoral polling, market research, and social surveys. Founded in 1983 during the final years of the Military dictatorship in Brazil and operating in metropolitan centers such as São Paulo (city), Rio de Janeiro, and Brasília, the institute has produced high-profile polls cited by outlets such as Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, Estadão, and broadcasters like Rede Globo and RecordTV. Datafolha's work intersects with Brazilian politics through surveys on presidential campaigns, municipal elections, and public sentiment toward figures such as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Dilma Rousseff, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, and institutions including the Supremo Tribunal Federal and the Ministry of Health.
Datafolha was created in 1983 as a research arm connected to Folha de S.Paulo during the period of transition from the Military dictatorship in Brazil to the New Republic, alongside contemporaries such as the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and private firms like IBOPE. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s Datafolha conducted polling on events including the Diretas Já movement, the 1989 presidential election that brought Fernando Collor de Mello to prominence, and the economic stabilization under Plano Real, providing data referenced by political actors such as Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso. In the 2000s and 2010s Datafolha tracked public reactions to administrations of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, to crises like the 2013 Brazilian protests and the Operation Car Wash investigations involving figures such as Sérgio Moro and corporations like Petrobras.
Datafolha employs survey techniques including face-to-face interviews, telephone polling, and electronic questionnaires, drawing on sampling frames that reference demographic centers such as São Paulo (state), Minas Gerais, and Bahia (state), and weighting procedures informed by population data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. The institute cites fieldwork protocols similar to those used by international organizations like Pew Research Center, Gallup, and YouGov, and uses statistical methods including stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and margin-of-error calculations familiar from academic work at institutions like the University of São Paulo and the Fundação Getulio Vargas. Datafolha publishes technical notes detailing sample sizes, confidence intervals, and questionnaires for high-profile studies such as electoral polls involving candidates like Aécio Neves, Ciro Gomes, and Marina Silva.
Datafolha produced widely cited polls during the 2018 presidential campaign between Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad, in the 2014 runoff between Aécio Neves and Dilma Rousseff, and in the 2002 victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over José Serra. The institute released surveys on public perceptions of corruption during the Operation Car Wash investigations implicating politicians like Michel Temer, on public health attitudes during the 2015–2017 Brazilian recession and the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro, and on approval ratings for administrations such as those led by Dilma Rousseff and Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Datafolha's studies have also measured voter intention in municipal contests involving mayors like Fernando Haddad in São Paulo, and tracked shifts following major events like the 2013 Brazilian protests and judicial rulings from the Supremo Tribunal Federal.
Datafolha has faced criticism over alleged sampling biases and question wording from political actors including supporters of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, and scrutiny from academics at institutions such as the University of Campinas and the Fundação Getulio Vargas. Disputes have arisen over polling accuracy in elections like the 2018 and 2022 presidential races, with critics invoking examples involving IBOPE and international comparisons to Gallup to question methodology. Legal and ethical debates involving media groups such as Grupo Folha and broadcasters like Rede Globo and RecordTV have prompted discussion of conflicts of interest, while methodological critiques reference sampling frames, nonresponse bias, and weighting practices debated in journals and at conferences hosted by organizations like the Brazilian Political Science Association.
Datafolha operates within the corporate structure of Grupo Folha and works closely with the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, sharing editorial and administrative links with entities such as UOL and collaborating with academic partners at the University of São Paulo and the Fundação Getulio Vargas for methodological research. Funding is primarily derived from media operations and commissioned research for clients including publishers, broadcasters like Rede Globo, and institutions such as state governments and political campaigns, as well as from paid services for corporations like Petrobras and financial firms in São Paulo (city). Governance includes senior researchers and statisticians, some trained at institutions like Universidade Estadual de Campinas and international programs at universities such as Harvard University and London School of Economics.
Datafolha's polls have influenced campaign strategy for politicians such as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Dilma Rousseff, and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, and shaped media coverage across outlets including Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, Estadão, BandNews FM, and TV Cultura. Findings from Datafolha are frequently cited in political analyses alongside reports by think tanks like Instituto Millenium and Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, and have been used by electoral authorities such as the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral to gauge public opinion. The institute's role in framing electoral narratives and public debates has made it a subject of academic study in fields associated with Fundação Getulio Vargas, University of São Paulo, and policy research institutions.
Category:Polling organizations