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| CyberShake | |
|---|---|
| Name | CyberShake |
| Developer | Southern California Earthquake Center; University of Southern California |
| Released | 2000s |
| Programming language | Fortran; Python; C++ |
| Operating system | Linux; Unix |
| License | Academic/Research |
CyberShake
CyberShake is a physics-based seismic hazard modeling framework developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using physics-driven ground motion simulations. It combines earthquake rupture models, 3D velocity structure, high-performance computing, and numerical wave propagation to estimate long-period ground motions for engineering and hazard planning. The platform integrates work from academic centers, national laboratories, and regional seismic networks to produce deterministic synthetics and probabilistic maps.
CyberShake produces synthetic broadband ground motions by simulating seismic wave propagation through three-dimensional models of crustal structure. It links earthquake source models such as those used by the United States Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey with numerical solvers developed at institutions including the Southern California Earthquake Center and the University of Southern California. The framework employs high-performance computing resources like the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center and the San Diego Supercomputer Center to run physics-based rupture scenarios for regions such as Southern California. Outputs are used by stakeholders including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the California Office of Emergency Services, and engineering firms for long-period engineering design, retrofit prioritization, and seismic risk assessment.
Development began in the early 2000s as part of multi-institutional efforts to move beyond empirical ground motion prediction equations used by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Early contributions came from researchers affiliated with the Southern California Earthquake Center, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Key milestones include integration of the Virtual Seismologist rupture generator from teams at the University of California, Berkeley and the adoption of spectral-element and finite-difference solvers developed at the California Institute of Technology and Cornell University. Major releases incorporated improved 3D velocity models informed by projects such as the Hauksson-Shearer regional tomography and the Community Velocity Model initiatives. Funding and oversight have involved agencies like the National Science Foundation and the United States Geological Survey.
CyberShake combines stochastic earthquake rupture sets, deterministic rupture scenarios, and numerical wave propagation to compute probabilistic seismic hazard curves. Source parameterizations derive from seismic catalogs curated by the Southern California Earthquake Data Center and paleoseismic compilations from the United States Geological Survey. Rupture scenarios use kinematic and dynamic source descriptions following methodologies from the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Wave propagation utilizes solvers such as spectral-element methods developed at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and high-order finite-difference schemes from the University of California, San Diego. Three-dimensional velocity structure and basin amplification effects are informed by tomographic models from the SCEC Community Modeling Environment and seismic imaging results by the Southern California Earthquake Center. Computational workflow orchestration leverages middleware from the Open Science Grid and job scheduling at centers like the National Center for Supercomputing Applications.
Engineers and planners apply CyberShake outputs for long-period response spectra used in design of tall structures influenced by basin effects studied in projects by the Federal Highway Administration and the American Society of Civil Engineers. The platform informs seismic hazard maps adopted by the California Geological Survey and risk models used by insurers such as those represented in the catastrophe modeling community. Researchers at the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center and the MultiHazards Demonstration Project use CyberShake scenarios to study site amplification for critical facilities including Los Angeles International Airport and nuclear facilities reviewed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The simulations have been used to investigate rupture directivity in events similar to the 1994 Northridge earthquake and basin-driven long-period ground motions relevant to structures reviewed by the California Department of Transportation.
Validation efforts compare synthetic seismograms with recordings from networks such as the California Integrated Seismic Network and instrument arrays deployed during the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast evaluation. Studies benchmark CyberShake outputs against empirical ground motion prediction equations used by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center and hazard products produced by the United States Geological Survey to assess bias and variance. Performance metrics emphasize accuracy of long-period spectral amplitudes, waveform phase, and site-specific amplification, with validation campaigns coordinated with the Southern California Earthquake Center and computational testing on facilities like the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility.
CyberShake is the result of collaborations among academic institutions, national laboratories, and computing centers including the University of Southern California, California Institute of Technology, United States Geological Survey, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and the San Diego Supercomputer Center. Deployment workflows have integrated community datasets from the SCEC Community Modeling Environment and seismic catalogs from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center. International collaborations have involved groups at the University of Tokyo and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts when adapting high-performance workflows. Operational use has been demonstrated in regional hazard products coordinated with the California Earthquake Authority and infrastructure resilience studies supported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Limitations include computational cost, sensitivity to 3D velocity model uncertainty, and challenges modeling high-frequency ground motions above ~1–2 Hz, which remain difficult for spectral-element and finite-difference approaches used in CyberShake. Future work focuses on integrating dynamic rupture physics from groups at the California Institute of Technology and University of California, Santa Barbara, improving community velocity models with data from the EarthScope and USArray initiatives, and coupling with site response tools developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. Advances in exascale computing at centers like the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and algorithmic improvements from the National Center for Supercomputing Applications are expected to expand bandwidth, reduce uncertainty, and enable more routine regional probabilistic physics-based hazard products.