Asia-Pacific Climate Outlook Forum

Asia-Pacific Climate Outlook Forum
Name	Asia-Pacific Climate Outlook Forum
Abbrev	APCOF
Formation	1994
Type	Intergovernmental forum
Headquarters	Bangkok
Region served	Asia-Pacific
Parent organization	World Meteorological Organization

Contents

Asia-Pacific Climate Outlook Forum The Asia-Pacific Climate Outlook Forum convenes seasonal climate outlook producers and users across the Asia-Pacific region to co-develop consensus seasonal forecasts and enhance operational climate services. It brings together meteorological agencies such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, China Meteorological Administration and international organizations including the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. APCOF serves as a platform linking scientific providers like the International Research Institute for Climate and Society with policy actors from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Pacific Islands Forum, and the Asian Development Bank to inform sectors such as agriculture in Asia, hydropower, disaster risk reduction, and public health.

Overview

APCOF is a regional forum that synthesizes outputs from global systems like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Met Office with national outlooks from agencies such as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and the Korea Meteorological Administration. It emphasizes co-production among stakeholders from entities including the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, UNESCO, and regional research centers like the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and the Southeast Asian Regional Climate Downscaling Project. APCOF sessions typically involve delegations from governments, non-governmental organizations, private sector partners like hydropower companies and agricultural cooperatives, and academic groups such as researchers from Peking University, University of Tokyo, Australian National University, and the National University of Singapore.

Initiated in the mid-1990s under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and regional partners including the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, APCOF evolved from earlier collaborations such as the Pacific Climate Information System and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Task Force. Major milestones include integration of multimodel ensembles from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the CMIP model family, expansion to include Pacific island representatives from the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme and formal ties with the Global Framework for Climate Services. APCOF has paralleled developments in initiatives like the Group on Earth Observations and engaged with projects sponsored by the Asian Development Bank and the European Commission.

Governance involves a secretariat typically hosted by a regional center such as the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific and steering committees comprising representatives from national meteorological services including the Meteorological Service Singapore, Thailand Meteorological Department, and New Zealand MetService. Key scientific partners include the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Climate Prediction Center, and university consortia like the Asian School of the Environment. Funding and programmatic partners have included the Australian Agency for International Development, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, bilateral development agencies, multilaterals like the United Nations Environment Programme, and foundations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation supporting sectoral pilot projects.

APCOF adopts a multi-model, consensus-based methodology drawing on outputs from centers such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and regional downscaling efforts linked to the CORDEX framework. Products include seasonal outlook bulletins, probabilistic rainfall and temperature outlooks, tailored advisories for sectors like rice production in Asia, fisheries in the Pacific, and guidance on drought and flood risk. Analytical tools often reference indices such as ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Madden–Julian oscillation, and incorporate hydroclimate information from agencies like the International Water Management Institute and the Global Runoff Data Centre.

Outputs from APCOF inform decision-making in national programmes like crop calendar adjustments by the Department of Agriculture (Philippines), reservoir operations advised to utilities such as Hydro Tasmania and State Power Investment Corporation, and contingency planning by disaster management authorities such as the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. Climate-informed products have been used by regional development actors including the Asian Development Bank and humanitarian agencies like the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies for early action financing and preparedness. Research collaborations linking APCOF outcomes to impact studies have involved institutions like the International Rice Research Institute, the Stockholm Environment Institute, and the Pacific Community.

APCOF conducts training workshops, technical tutorials, and stakeholder engagement sessions with partners such as the World Meteorological Organization, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, and regional training centers including the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. Capacity-building targets include national forecasters from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, and Pacific meteorological services, using curricula developed with universities like Columbia University and University of Reading. Outreach channels include collaborations with media partners, sectoral dialogues with entities such as the Global Water Partnership, and pilot co-production projects with provincial authorities in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Challenges for APCOF include improving representation of small island and remote communities associated with the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, enhancing incorporation of high-resolution downscaling from initiatives like CORDEX-SEA, and securing sustained financing from donors such as the Green Climate Fund and bilateral agencies. Scientific priorities involve integrating next-generation Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, leveraging satellite data from missions like GPM and Sentinel, and operationalizing climate services aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. Future directions emphasize deepening partnerships with regional bodies including the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management and expanding user-driven climate services for sectors represented by the International Fund for Agricultural Development and private-sector utilities.

Category:Climate organizations