42nd Canadian federal election
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| 42nd Canadian federal election | |
|---|---|
| Election name | 42nd Canadian federal election |
| Country | Canada |
| Type | parliamentary |
| Previous election | 2011 Canadian federal election |
| Previous year | 2011 |
| Next election | 2019 Canadian federal election |
| Next year | 2019 |
| Seats for election | 338 seats in the House of Commons |
| Majority seats | 170 |
| Election date | 19 October 2015 |
| Turnout | 68.5% |
42nd Canadian federal election The 42nd Canadian federal election was held on 19 October 2015 to elect members to the House of Commons of Canada for the 42nd Parliament. The election saw a change in prime ministership from Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party of Canada to Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party of Canada, producing a Liberal majority and significant shifts in regional representation. The campaign unfolded against a backdrop of debates over taxation, foreign policy, climate change, and national unity, with notable leaders including Thomas Mulcair of the New Democratic Party (Canada), Elizabeth May of the Green Party of Canada, and Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Québécois returning to leadership contention.
Background
The 2015 election followed the 2011 federal election outcome that produced a Conservative minority government under Stephen Harper and saw the rise of the New Democratic Party (Canada) under Jack Layton. Events shaping the 2015 contest included the prorogation disputes involving the Parliament of Canada, the Senate expenses controversies that implicated figures linked to the Conservative Party of Canada and prompted inquiries into the Senate of Canada, and economic debates triggered by the 2014–2016 oil price decline affecting provinces like Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador. International incidents such as the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant insurgency, and the 2015 Paris attacks also influenced foreign policy discussions. Leadership changes prior to the vote included Tom Mulcair succeeding Jack Layton in NDP history, and Justin Trudeau's ascent within the Liberal Party after the 2013 leadership race that followed the resignation of Michael Ignatieff and the interim tenure of Bob Rae.
Electoral system and timeline
Canada uses first-past-the-post single-member districts established under the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act and administered by Elections Canada. The 338 electoral districts were set by the 2012 federal electoral redistribution following the 2011 Canadian census. Fixed-date provisions under the Canada Elections Act coexist with the Governor General's prerogative as exercised by David Johnston in 2015, who accepted the dissolution advice from Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The writ period encompassed nomination deadlines, advance voting, and election day on 19 October, with international voting arrangements for Canadians abroad coordinated with consular services of the Global Affairs Canada network. Campaign financing and advertising were regulated by the Canada Elections Act and overseen by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada.
Parties and candidates
Major parties included the Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau, the Conservative Party of Canada led by Stephen Harper, the New Democratic Party (Canada) led by Thomas Mulcair, the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe, and the Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May. Other registered parties on ballots included the People's Party of Canada (not yet founded in 2015), the Christian Heritage Party of Canada, the Communist Party of Canada, the Pirate Party of Canada, and regional parties like the Strength in Democracy. Prominent candidates included former cabinet ministers such as Rona Ambrose, John Baird, Joe Oliver, and opposition figures like Nathan Cullen and Peter Julian. High-profile retirements and candidate selections involved figures linked to provinces: Kathleen Wynne (Ontario provincial politics), Rachel Notley (Alberta NDP leadership), and Philippe Couillard (Quebec provincial leadership) influenced cross-tier political dynamics, while municipal politicians such as former mayors and MPs contested nominations in urban districts like Toronto, Montréal, and Vancouver.
Campaign issues and events
Key issues included taxation policy such as the proposed Liberal platform on middle-class tax cuts and changes to the Goods and Services Tax debates, economic stimulus and infrastructure spending, health transfer arrangements affecting provinces like Ontario and Quebec, and resource development controversies tied to projects like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. Environmental policy and climate commitments related to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process and the upcoming COP21 talks were focal points. Security and foreign policy debates touched on the Canadian role in operations against ISIS and relations with United States under Barack Obama, trade policy including the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, and refugee and immigration responses to the Syrian Civil War. Campaign events of note included national leaders' debates organized by the Leaders' Debates Commission, televised encounters moderated by broadcasters such as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and CTV Television Network, and controversies over advertising expenditures, strategic voting discussions promoted by civic groups, and the Liberals’ campaign tour emphasizing a platform called "real change."
Opinion polls and predictions
Public opinion polling by firms like Nanos Research, Ipsos-Reid, Rogers Media, EKOS Research Associates, and Abacus Data tracked leader approval for Justin Trudeau, Stephen Harper, and Thomas Mulcair. Aggregators and academic observers at institutions such as the University of British Columbia, Queen's University, and the University of Toronto analyzed vote intention using models influenced by regional swings in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and the Prairies. Polling trends showed a shift from Conservative leads in early 2015 to a Liberal surge in late summer and autumn, undermining some forecasters who had expected a closer three-way contest. Analysts referenced historical precedents like the 1993 federal election realignment and the 2004 election dynamics to assess volatility. Media outlets including the Globe and Mail, National Post, Toronto Star, and La Presse provided election night projections alongside broadcasters such as the CBC and CTV.
Results and aftermath
The Liberal Party secured a majority of seats, enabling Justin Trudeau to be invited by Governor General David Johnston to form a new government and become Prime Minister, displacing Stephen Harper who resigned as Conservative leader and later initiated a leadership review resulting in successors such as Rona Ambrose (interim) and Andrew Scheer in later years. The election produced substantial gains for the Liberals in Ontario and Quebec, while the Conservatives retained strength in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada. The New Democratic Party suffered seat losses, prompting leadership introspection and subsequent leadership contests culminating in figures like Jagmeet Singh emerging later. The Bloc Québécois regained some presence in Québec under renewed leadership. Policy shifts included the Liberal commitment to reversing certain Harper-era measures, reviving engagement with the United Nations framework on climate, and embarking on infrastructure programs guided by the Department of Finance (Canada) and the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat. The 42nd Parliament addressed issues such as electoral reform debates, resulting in the Liberal government later abandoning promises to replace first-past-the-post, and it set the stage for subsequent federal campaigns, leadership changes, and legislative priorities leading toward the 2019 election cycle.