2018–2021 Ethiopian political unrest
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| 2018–2021 Ethiopian political unrest | |
|---|---|
| Title | 2018–2021 Ethiopian political unrest |
| Date | 2018–2021 |
| Place | Ethiopia; regions including Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Southern Nations, Benishangul-Gumuz |
| Causes | Political liberalization, ethnic federalism, leadership transition, disputed elections, territorial disputes |
| Result | Political realignments, war in Tigray, state of emergency measures, humanitarian crises |
2018–2021 Ethiopian political unrest
The period between 2018 and 2021 in Ethiopia encompassed overlapping episodes of political liberalization, ethnic mobilization, interregional clashes, and an armed conflict that reshaped Horn of Africa politics. Sparked by reforms under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and compounded by longstanding tensions involving the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, Ethiopian National Defense Force, and regional administrations such as Tigray Region and Amhara Region, the unrest intersected with national elections, the Tigray War, and mass displacement. International actors including the African Union, United Nations, United States, European Union, China, and neighboring states like Eritrea and Sudan played roles in mediation, criticism, and military logistics.
Background and causes
Reform initiatives by Abiy Ahmed after his appointment in April 2018 followed the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn and the fragmentation of the ruling EPRDF, leading to liberalization that affected actors such as the Oromo Liberation Front, Ogaden National Liberation Front, and Amhara Democratic Party. Ethnic federalism codified under the 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia created institutional incentives for regional parties including Oromo Federalist Congress, Amhara National Movement (NaMA), and TPLF to pursue territorial claims over areas like Wollo, Gondar, Wellega, and Western Tigray. The release of political prisoners, reopening of media such as Fana Broadcasting Corporate and Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, and return of exiles including figures associated with Ginbot 7 altered the balance with security organs like the Federal Police Commission and National Intelligence and Security Service. External pressures—border disputes with Eritrea and Somalia, involvement of United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in regional diplomacy, and sanctions from the United States Department of the Treasury—also influenced factional calculations.
Timeline of events
2018 saw the signing of a peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia at Asmara and the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Abiy Ahmed in 2019, amid protests in Addis Ababa, Jimma, and Dire Dawa involving groups like the Oromo Liberation Front and Oromo Federalist Congress. In 2019–2020, clashes escalated between Amhara Region militias, elements of the Ethiopian National Defense Force, and TPLF-aligned forces in areas including Woldia and Bahir Dar. The postponement of the 2020 national election due to the COVID-19 pandemic sparked constitutional disputes between the House of Federation and regional councils such as the Tigray Regional Council. In November 2020 the Tigray Special Forces attacked the Northern Command bases, triggering the Tigray War with offensives into Axum and Mekelle, counteroffensives by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and allied forces including Eritrean Defence Forces and Amhara Fano militia, and international concern from bodies like the United Nations Security Council. Throughout 2021, cycles of insurgency, counterinsurgency, and ceasefire attempts involved actors such as Oromo Liberation Army, Benishangul-Gumuz insurgents, and Sudan Armed Forces-adjacent militias, with episodes of violence in Gambela, Benishangul-Gumuz Region, and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region.
Key actors and factions
Prominent national leaders and parties included Abiy Ahmed, the Prosperity Party, and former EPRDF affiliates like the Amhara Democratic Party; opposition and regional parties such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front, Oromo Federalist Congress, Sidama National Liberation Front, and Gurage Democratic Party played major roles. Security and paramilitary organizations comprised the Ethiopian National Defense Force, Eritrean Defence Forces, Federal Police Commission, National Intelligence and Security Service, regional special forces in Tigray Region and Amhara Region, and irregular groups such as the Fano militia, Oromo Liberation Army, and Shene/Ogaden National Liberation Front elements. International stakeholders included the African Union Commission, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, United States Agency for International Development, European Union External Action Service, African Union Peace and Security Council, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and foreign governments of United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Turkey, Israel, and United Arab Emirates.
Government response and security measures
Responses by federal authorities involved declarations related to emergency powers, deployments of the Ethiopian National Defense Force, coordination with regional special forces, and communication controls affecting media outlets like ESAT and Ethiopian Satellite Television. Measures included studies in the House of Peoples' Representatives on state of emergency provisions, arrests of political figures linked to groups such as Ginbot 7 and Oromo Liberation Front, and security cooperation with foreign partners including intelligence exchanges with United States Central Command-adjacent entities and logistical ties with Eritrea. Law enforcement operations engaged the Federal Police Commission, National Intelligence and Security Service, and regional police, while legislative actors such as the Council of Ministers (Ethiopia) enacted directives impacting the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia.
Humanitarian impact and casualties
The conflicts produced widespread displacement registered by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and International Organization for Migration with hundreds of thousands internally displaced across Tigray Region, Amhara Region, and Afar Region. Humanitarian agencies including Médecins Sans Frontières, International Committee of the Red Cross, World Food Programme, United Nations Children's Fund, and World Health Organization reported disruptions to aid, food insecurity, outbreaks of disease, and shortages at hospitals such as Ayder Referral Hospital. Documented incidents of alleged human rights violations were investigated by organizations like Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the United Nations Human Rights Council, while casualty estimates varied between analyses from the Institute for Security Studies, International Crisis Group, and academic centers such as the Stimson Center.
Domestic and international reactions
Domestic responses included parliamentary debates in the House of Peoples' Representatives and resolutions from regional councils in Tigray Regional Council and Amhara Regional Council, civil society mobilization by groups like the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and student movements at institutions such as Addis Ababa University and Bahir Dar University. International diplomatic reactions encompassed statements and sanctions from the United States Department of State, mediation overtures by the African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development, humanitarian appeals by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and varied positions from permanent members of the United Nations Security Council including Russia and China. Diaspora communities in United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates organized protests and lobbying campaigns directed at bodies such as the European Parliament.
Aftermath and political consequences
By late 2021 and into 2022, political realignments included shifts within the Prosperity Party, reconciliation talks between Abiy Ahmed and some opposition figures, and continued conflict dynamics with the Tigray People's Liberation Front leading to negotiated arrangements mediated by entities like the African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development. The unrest impacted regional diplomacy involving Eritrea, border talks with Sudan over Al-Fashaga, and international aid negotiations with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Long-term consequences affected constitutional debates surrounding the 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia, the structure of ethnic federalism, electoral reform at the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia, and comparative studies by research centers such as the Chatham House, Brookings Institution, and Center for Strategic and International Studies.