second Scottish independence referendum

second Scottish independence referendum
Country	Scotland
Partof	the Scottish independence movement
Date	Proposed but not held

second Scottish independence referendum. The second Scottish independence referendum is a proposed vote on whether Scotland should become an independent country, distinct from the United Kingdom. It follows the first such referendum in 2014, where voters chose to remain within the United Kingdom by a margin of 55% to 45%. The push for a second vote has been a central and highly contentious feature of British politics since the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, driven primarily by the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Scottish Greens.

Background

The demand for a second referendum stems directly from the outcome of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, where a majority of voters in Scotland chose to remain within the European Union, contrasting with the overall United Kingdom result to leave. This created what First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon termed a "material change of circumstances," arguing the 2014 Scottish independence referendum's mandate was voided as Scotland faced being taken out of the European Union against its democratic will. The political landscape was further shaped by the subsequent Brexit process, including the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union and the implementation of the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The SNP's continued electoral success, including winning a plurality in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, was framed as a renewed mandate to pursue independence.

Political context

The campaign for a referendum has been led by the Scottish Government, formed by a pro-independence coalition between the SNP and the Scottish Greens. Key figures include former First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and her successor Humza Yousaf, who have repeatedly called for a vote. The principal opposition comes from the British Government, led by successive Prime Ministers Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak, all of whom have refused to grant the necessary legal permission. Within Scotland, the Scottish Labour Party, the Scottish Conservatives, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats have also consistently opposed holding a second referendum, forming a united "Unionist" front in the Scottish Parliament.

Legal and constitutional issues

The legal authority to legislate for a binding referendum on Scottish independence is reserved to the Parliament of the United Kingdom under the Scotland Act 1998. In 2022, the Scottish Government referred its own proposed referendum bill, the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill, to the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom for a ruling on its competence. In a landmark judgment, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the Scottish Parliament did not have the power to legislate for a referendum without a Section 30 order from the British Government. This cemented the requirement for a cooperative approach, which has not been forthcoming from Westminster.

Proposed referendum details

Proposals for the referendum's timing and question have evolved. Initially, Nicola Sturgeon proposed a vote between late 2018 and early 2019, and later targeted October 2023. The intended question was expected to mirror the 2014 ballot: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Following the Supreme Court ruling, the SNP shifted strategy, declaring the next United Kingdom general election would be treated as a "de facto referendum" on independence, with the party seeking to win a majority of votes in Scotland as a mandate for separation negotiations. This plan was later de-emphasized under Humza Yousaf.

Public opinion and polling

Public opinion on both independence and the timing of a referendum has remained divided and volatile. Polling conducted by firms like Ipsos MORI, YouGov, and Savanta has shown support for independence fluctuating, often within a narrow range around 50%, with a significant proportion of voters undecided. Surveys have consistently indicated that a majority of the Scottish electorate believes the decision to hold a referendum should ultimately rest with the Scottish Parliament, though there is less consistent demand for an immediate vote. Key demographic divides persist, with younger voters and those in the Central Belt generally more supportive of independence.

Reactions and impact

The ongoing debate has profoundly impacted the constitutional landscape of the United Kingdom. The British Government has responded by advocating for a focus on domestic policy through a "levelling up" agenda and by challenging Scottish Government policies in areas like gender recognition reform. The stalemate has fueled significant political tension between the Scottish Government in Holyrood and the British Government in Westminster, and has influenced electoral strategies across all major British political parties. The issue remains the dominant fault line in Scottish politics, shaping debates on everything from the National Health Service and education to Scotland's international relationships, and ensures the future of the Union of the Crowns remains a live and unresolved question.

Category:Proposed referendums in the United Kingdom Category:Scottish independence Category:2020s in Scottish politics